ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Carlisle vs Salford City

Carlisle Home · Elo 1,632
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Salford City Away · Elo 1,569
Brunton Park, Carlisle Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Salford City win
Carlisle win
36.9%
Draw
23.7%
Salford City winPick
39.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.6%
No41.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.3%
Under 2.542.7%

How much we know

Carlisle history82 matches
Salford City history89 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Salford City are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Carlisle are rated 63 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,632 against 1,569. On rating alone Carlisle would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Carlisle score more

    1.74 goals a game over 82 matches for Carlisle, against 1.54 over 89 for Salford City.

  • Defences are close

    Carlisle concede 1.26 a game, Salford City 1.30.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Carlisle matches, against 53% for Salford City. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Carlisle
Salford City
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1631.6
ELO
1568.8
82
ELO · Matches
89
1631.6
Current Team ELO
1568.8
1568.8
Current Opponent ELO
1631.6
62.78
Current ELO Difference
-62.78
0.59
Expected score
0.41
82
History Matches
89
0.07
Residual Mean
0.04
55.88
Overperformance
53.42
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.40
2.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
82
Matches
89
1.78
PPG
1.65
52.4%
Win rate
47.2%
20.7%
Draw rate
23.6%
26.8%
Loss rate
29.2%
81.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.3%
58.5%
Over 2.5 rate
52.8%
31.7%
Over 3.5 rate
36.0%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
42
1.87
PPG
1.64
52.6%
Win rate
50.0%
28.9%
Draw rate
14.3%
18.4%
Loss rate
35.7%
89.5%
Over 1.5 rate
76.2%
65.8%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
44.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
38
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.74
Goals for per game
1.54
82.9%
Scoring rate
77.5%
54.9%
BTTS rate
58.4%
2.11
Goals for per game
1.48
84.2%
Scoring rate
73.8%
60.5%
BTTS rate
54.8%
82
History Matches
89
1.74
Goals Mean
1.54
1.28
Goals Std
1.20
82.9%
Scored 1+ rate
77.5%
54.9%
Scored 2+ rate
46.1%
24.4%
Scored 3+ rate
23.6%
2.11
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.26
Goals against per game
1.30
68.3%
Conceding rate
74.2%
1.32
Goals against per game
1.26
68.4%
Conceding rate
78.6%
82
History Matches
89
1.26
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.18
Conceded Std
1.16
37.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.2%
13.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.4%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.5%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.5%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
82
History Matches
89
0.93
Result entropy
0.96
1.81
Goal Difference Std
1.57
7.36
Stability score
4.00
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
82
Eligible Matches
89
32
Lead Matches
29
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
82.8%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.85
23
Trailing Matches
22
34.8%
Non-loss rate
22.7%
8.7%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
82
Halftime Coverage Matches
89
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.15
Rest days
77.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.43
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
63
Normal Rest History Matches
68
1.76
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.62
11
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.64
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.93
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
9
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.65
Portability PPG Std
0.38
1.95
Portability PPG Range
1.15
43.47
Portability Score
57.09
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
82
Clean History Matches
89
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO62.78
PPG0.13
GF0.20
GA-0.05
PPG0.23
PPG0.40
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate5.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate10.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-7
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate5.4%
Scored 2+ rate8.8%
Scored 3+ rate0.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.63
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.13
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean-0.05
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate5.9%
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate1.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.08
History Matches-7
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score3.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.05
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate4.7%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate12.1%
Trailing Win Rate4.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.27
Portability PPG Range0.80
Portability Score-13.62
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.03
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Current Team ELO62.78
Current Opponent ELO-62.78
Current ELO Difference125.6
Expected score0.18
History Matches-7
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Carlisle

W
Altrincham2–4Carlisle31 Oct · away
Pick: Carlisle 49% · hit
W
Carlisle3–0Harrogate Town28 Oct · home
Pick: Carlisle 43% · hit
W
Solihull Moors1–2Carlisle24 Oct · away
Pick: Carlisle 50% · hit
W
Carlisle2–1Tamworth17 Oct · home
Pick: Carlisle 40% · hit
W
Carlisle4–2Scunthorpe31 Aug · home
Pick: Carlisle 48% · hit

Salford City

W
Salford City2–1Exeter City31 Oct · home
Pick: Salford City 39% · hit
W
Walsall2–4Salford City26 Oct · away
Pick: Walsall 49% · missed
W
Bristol Rovers1–2Salford City20 Oct · away
Pick: Bristol Rovers 49% · missed
W
Salford City2–1Crawley Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Salford City 44% · hit
W
Salford City2–1Newport County1 Sep · home
Pick: Salford City 40% · hit

About this match

Carlisle and Salford City meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Brunton Park, Carlisle. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Carlisle win 36.9%, draw 23.7%, Salford City win 39.5%. The pick is Salford City win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.3%. Both teams to score: 58.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.