ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone D Italy Group D - 11 2026

Castellanzese vs USD Casatese

Castellanzese Home · Elo 1,476
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
USD Casatese Away · Elo 1,598
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: USD Casatese win
Castellanzese win
28.0%
Draw
28.8%
USD Casatese winPick
43.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.4%
No50.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.4%
Under 2.552.6%

How much we know

Castellanzese history50 matches
USD Casatese history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why USD Casatese are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • USD Casatese are rated 122 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,598 against 1,476. On rating alone USD Casatese would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • USD Casatese score more

    1.26 goals a game over 50 matches for Castellanzese, against 1.63 over 51 for USD Casatese.

  • USD Casatese concede fewer

    Castellanzese concede 1.20 a game, USD Casatese 0.84.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Castellanzese matches, against 41% for USD Casatese. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 18 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Castellanzese
USD Casatese
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1476.1
ELO
1598.2
50
ELO · Matches
51
1476.1
Current Team ELO
1598.2
1598.2
Current Opponent ELO
1476.1
-122.2
Current ELO Difference
122.2
0.33
Expected score
0.67
50
History Matches
51
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.09
48.29
Overperformance
56.64
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.60
1.20
Goals for per game
2.20
1.60
Goals against per game
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
2.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
0.50
20.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.63
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.81
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
0.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
51
1.22
PPG
1.84
28.0%
Win rate
51.0%
38.0%
Draw rate
31.4%
34.0%
Loss rate
17.6%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
48.0%
Over 2.5 rate
41.2%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.5%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
26
1.32
PPG
1.88
32.0%
Win rate
50.0%
36.0%
Draw rate
38.5%
32.0%
Loss rate
11.5%
68.0%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
1.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
25
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.26
Goals for per game
1.63
74.0%
Scoring rate
78.4%
58.0%
BTTS rate
45.1%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.65
76.0%
Scoring rate
80.8%
60.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
50
History Matches
51
1.26
Goals Mean
1.63
1.29
Goals Std
1.45
74.0%
Scored 1+ rate
78.4%
34.0%
Scored 2+ rate
39.2%
8.0%
Scored 3+ rate
25.5%
1.20
Venue Goals Mean
1.65
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.20
Goals against per game
0.84
72.0%
Conceding rate
56.9%
1.24
Goals against per game
0.85
68.0%
Conceding rate
53.8%
50
History Matches
51
1.20
Conceded Mean
0.84
0.92
Conceded Std
0.87
42.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.5%
6.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.9%
1.24
Venue Conceded Mean
0.85
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
43.1%
26.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
43.1%
26.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
43.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
51
0.99
Result entropy
0.92
1.55
Goal Difference Std
1.70
0.70
Stability score
7.77
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
51
12
Lead Matches
20
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.93
12
Trailing Matches
8
50.0%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.0
Rest days
175.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.92
8
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.16
Portability PPG Range
0.27
86.07
Portability Score
79.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-122.2
PPG-0.62
GF-0.37
GA0.36
PPG-0.56
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate4.4%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate4.8%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.37
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Goals Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.69
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.36
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate18.5%
Conceded 3+ rate2.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.11
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.14
Stability score-7.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.82
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate12.5%
Trailing Win Rate12.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score7.07
Rest days7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.50
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.72
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.14
Current Team ELO-122.2
Current Opponent ELO122.2
Current ELO Difference-244.3
Expected score-0.34
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-8.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Castellanzese

L
Pistoiese4–2Castellanzese1 Nov · away
Pick: Pistoiese 67% · hit
D
Castellanzese1–1Varesina25 Oct · home
Pick: Varesina 42% · missed
W
Correggese0–2Castellanzese18 Oct · away
Pick: Correggese 36% · missed
W
Sant'Angelo1–2Castellanzese4 Oct · away
Pick: Sant'Angelo 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

USD Casatese

W
USD Casatese1–0Pro Sesto1 Nov · home
Pick: USD Casatese 48% · hit
L
Pavia3–1USD Casatese25 Oct · away
Pick: USD Casatese 43% · missed
L
USD Casatese1–2Pro Patria18 Oct · home
Pick: USD Casatese 48% · missed
L
USD Casatese0–3Pistoiese4 Oct · home
Pick: Pistoiese 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Castellanzese and USD Casatese meet in Serie D - Girone D on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Castellanzese win 28.0%, draw 28.8%, USD Casatese win 43.2%. The pick is USD Casatese win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.4%. Both teams to score: 49.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.