ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone D Italy Group D - 11 2026

Pro Patria vs Pistoiese

Pro Patria Home · Elo 1,388
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pistoiese Away · Elo 1,655
Carlo Speroni, Busto Arsizio Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Pistoiese win
Pro Patria win
25.4%
Draw
23.5%
Pistoiese winPick
51.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.3%
No52.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.2%
Under 2.553.8%

How much we know

Pro Patria history58 matches
Pistoiese history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Pistoiese are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Pistoiese are rated 267 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,655 against 1,388. On rating alone Pistoiese would be expected to take 82% of the points on offer.

  • Pistoiese score far more

    0.98 goals a game over 58 matches for Pro Patria, against 1.62 over 58 for Pistoiese.

  • Pistoiese concede fewer

    Pro Patria concede 1.60 a game, Pistoiese 0.62.

  • Pro Patria games more often go over 2.5 goals

    57% of Pro Patria matches, against 38% for Pistoiese. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Pro Patria
Pistoiese
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1388.0
ELO
1654.9
58
ELO · Matches
58
1388.0
Current Team ELO
1654.9
1654.9
Current Opponent ELO
1388.0
-266.9
Current ELO Difference
266.9
0.18
Expected score
0.82
58
History Matches
58
-0.09
Residual Mean
0.13
43.23
Overperformance
59.44
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
2.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.70
1.60
Goals for per game
2.00
1.80
Goals against per game
0.70
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.95
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
58
0.84
PPG
2.00
19.0%
Win rate
56.9%
27.6%
Draw rate
29.3%
53.4%
Loss rate
13.8%
70.7%
Over 1.5 rate
60.3%
56.9%
Over 2.5 rate
37.9%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
24.1%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
30
1.13
PPG
1.80
26.7%
Win rate
46.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
40.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
13.3%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
53.3%
56.7%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
36.7%
Over 3.5 rate
23.3%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
30
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.98
Goals for per game
1.62
62.1%
Scoring rate
77.6%
53.4%
BTTS rate
39.7%
1.13
Goals for per game
1.37
66.7%
Scoring rate
73.3%
56.7%
BTTS rate
46.7%
58
History Matches
58
0.98
Goals Mean
1.62
1.03
Goals Std
1.42
62.1%
Scored 1+ rate
77.6%
24.1%
Scored 2+ rate
39.7%
8.6%
Scored 3+ rate
27.6%
1.13
Venue Goals Mean
1.37
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.60
Goals against per game
0.62
79.3%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.57
Goals against per game
0.67
76.7%
Conceding rate
53.3%
58
History Matches
58
1.60
Conceded Mean
0.62
1.13
Conceded Std
0.69
55.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
12.1%
20.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.57
Venue Conceded Mean
0.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
37.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
37.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
58
0.92
Result entropy
0.87
1.48
Goal Difference Std
1.58
8.48
Stability score
13.18
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
58
9
Lead Matches
21
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
90.5%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.94
20
Trailing Matches
10
10.0%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.31
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.26
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
87.90
Rest days
85.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
33
Normal Rest History Matches
43
0.88
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.02
22
Long Rest History Matches
11
0.77
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.82
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.62
0.54
Portability PPG Range
1.50
65.04
Portability Score
44.68
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-266.9
PPG-1.16
GF-0.64
GA0.98
PPG-0.67
PPG0.60
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Failed-to-score rate15.5%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate6.7%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.64
Goals Std-0.40
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.84
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.98
Conceded Std0.44
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Conceded 2+ rate43.1%
Conceded 3+ rate20.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.34
History Matches0
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score-4.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.58
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate-0.24
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.30
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.67
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.35
Portability PPG Range-0.96
Portability Score20.36
Rest days2.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.14
Long Rest History Matches11
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.05
Current Team ELO-266.9
Current Opponent ELO266.9
Current ELO Difference-533.7
Expected score-0.65
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.22
Overperformance-16.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Pro Patria

L
Pavia1–0Pro Patria1 Nov · away
Pick: Pavia 37% · hit
D
Pro Patria1–1Correggese25 Oct · home
Pick: Pro Patria 45% · missed
W
USD Casatese1–2Pro Patria18 Oct · away
Pick: USD Casatese 48% · missed
W
Città di Varese2–5Pro Patria7 Oct · away
Pick: Città di Varese 41% · missed
D
Varesina0–0Pro Patria4 Oct · away
Pick: Varesina 43% · missed

Pistoiese

W
Pistoiese4–2Castellanzese1 Nov · home
Pick: Pistoiese 67% · hit
L
Cittadella Vis Modena2–1Pistoiese25 Oct · away
Pick: Pistoiese 43% · missed
W
Pistoiese1–0Pavia18 Oct · home
Pick: Pistoiese 68% · hit
L
Sestri Levante1–0Pistoiese7 Oct · away
Pick: Pistoiese 44% · missed
W
USD Casatese0–3Pistoiese4 Oct · away
Pick: Pistoiese 39% · hit

About this match

Pro Patria and Pistoiese meet in Serie D - Girone D on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Carlo Speroni, Busto Arsizio. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Pro Patria win 25.4%, draw 23.5%, Pistoiese win 51.1%. The pick is Pistoiese win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.2%. Both teams to score: 47.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.