ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone D Italy Group D - 11 2026

Pro Sesto vs Correggese

Pro Sesto Home · Elo 1,524
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Correggese Away · Elo 1,490
Stadio Ernesto Breda, Sesto San Giovanni Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Pro Sesto win
Pro Sesto winPick
48.5%
Draw
28.6%
Correggese win
22.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.5%
No53.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.2%
Under 2.556.8%

How much we know

Pro Sesto history48 matches
Correggese history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Pro Sesto are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Pro Sesto are rated 35 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,524 against 1,490. On rating alone Pro Sesto would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Pro Sesto score more

    1.25 goals a game over 48 matches for Pro Sesto, against 1.11 over 37 for Correggese.

  • Defences are close

    Pro Sesto concede 1.00 a game, Correggese 1.03.

  • Pro Sesto games more often go over 2.5 goals

    42% of Pro Sesto matches, against 30% for Correggese. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 3 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Pro Sesto
Correggese
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1524.5
ELO
1489.9
48
ELO · Matches
37
1524.5
Current Team ELO
1489.9
1489.9
Current Opponent ELO
1524.5
34.58
Current ELO Difference
-34.58
0.55
Expected score
0.45
48
History Matches
37
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.01
51.95
Overperformance
49.24
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
0.60
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.60
1.10
Goals for per game
1.50
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.63
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.29
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
37
1.52
PPG
1.24
41.7%
Win rate
29.7%
27.1%
Draw rate
35.1%
31.3%
Loss rate
35.1%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
73.0%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
29.7%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
10.8%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
18
1.72
PPG
1.00
48.0%
Win rate
22.2%
28.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
24.0%
Loss rate
44.4%
64.0%
Over 1.5 rate
61.1%
36.0%
Over 2.5 rate
22.2%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
25
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.25
Goals for per game
1.11
72.9%
Scoring rate
70.3%
45.8%
BTTS rate
45.9%
1.28
Goals for per game
0.94
68.0%
Scoring rate
55.6%
36.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
48
History Matches
37
1.25
Goals Mean
1.11
1.07
Goals Std
1.20
72.9%
Scored 1+ rate
70.3%
35.4%
Scored 2+ rate
21.6%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
8.1%
1.28
Venue Goals Mean
0.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.00
Goals against per game
1.03
60.4%
Conceding rate
67.6%
0.84
Goals against per game
1.00
52.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
48
History Matches
37
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.03
1.02
Conceded Std
0.88
29.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.7%
8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.4%
0.84
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
48.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
48.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
37
0.98
Result entropy
1.00
1.51
Goal Difference Std
1.70
1.51
Stability score
0.27
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
37
18
Lead Matches
10
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.70
8
Trailing Matches
10
0.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
189.0
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
40
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.26
7
Long Rest History Matches
3
1.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.17
Portability PPG Std
0.59
0.33
Portability PPG Range
1.19
75.08
Portability Score
45.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO34.58
PPG0.28
GF0.14
GA-0.03
PPG0.72
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate7.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate14.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches11
Goals Mean0.14
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate2.6%
Scored 2+ rate13.8%
Scored 3+ rate4.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.34
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.80
History Matches11
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate7.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate2.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.19
History Matches11
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.19
Stability score1.24
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.02
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate23.3%
Lead Points Retention0.19
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.43
Portability PPG Range-0.85
Portability Score29.34
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.34
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.81
Current Team ELO34.58
Current Opponent ELO-34.58
Current ELO Difference69.16
Expected score0.10
History Matches11
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.71
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Pro Sesto

L
USD Casatese1–0Pro Sesto1 Nov · away
Pick: USD Casatese 48% · hit
L
Pro Sesto1–2Sant'Angelo25 Oct · home
Pick: Pro Sesto 41% · missed
D
Varesina0–0Pro Sesto18 Oct · away
Pick: Varesina 47% · missed
D
Arconatese1–1Pro Sesto4 Oct · away
Pick: Pro Sesto 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Correggese

D
Correggese2–2Coriano1 Nov · home
Pick: Correggese 42% · missed
D
Pro Patria1–1Correggese25 Oct · away
Pick: Pro Patria 45% · missed
L
Correggese0–2Castellanzese18 Oct · home
Pick: Correggese 36% · missed
W
Correggese2–1Pavia4 Oct · home
Pick: Correggese 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Pro Sesto and Correggese meet in Serie D - Girone D on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Ernesto Breda, Sesto San Giovanni. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Pro Sesto win 48.5%, draw 28.6%, Correggese win 22.9%. The pick is Pro Sesto win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.2%. Both teams to score: 46.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.