ScoreProb
Serie B Brazil Round 37 2026

Ceara vs America Mineiro

Ceara Home · Elo 1,521
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
America Mineiro Away · Elo 1,424
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ceara win
Ceara winPick
52.8%
Draw
26.1%
America Mineiro win
21.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.0%
No51.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.9%
Under 2.550.1%

How much we know

Ceara history81 matches
America Mineiro history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 13 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 22:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Ceara are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ceara are rated 97 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,521 against 1,424. On rating alone Ceara would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Ceara score far more

    1.37 goals a game over 81 matches for Ceara, against 0.87 over 68 for America Mineiro.

  • Ceara concede fewer

    Ceara concede 0.94 a game, America Mineiro 1.32.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Ceara matches, against 37% for America Mineiro. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ceara
America Mineiro
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1520.8
ELO
1424.0
81
ELO · Matches
68
1520.8
Current Team ELO
1424.0
1424.0
Current Opponent ELO
1520.8
96.88
Current ELO Difference
-96.88
0.64
Expected score
0.36
81
History Matches
68
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.06
51.56
Overperformance
45.43
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.60
1.80
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
0.50
1.00
Goals for per game
0.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.26
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.49
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.04
Overall performance9 signals
90
81
Matches
68
1.56
PPG
0.93
43.2%
Win rate
19.1%
25.9%
Draw rate
35.3%
30.9%
Loss rate
45.6%
69.1%
Over 1.5 rate
67.6%
38.3%
Over 2.5 rate
36.8%
17.3%
Over 3.5 rate
16.2%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
Venue performance10 signals
100
44
Matches
36
1.73
PPG
0.64
47.7%
Win rate
11.1%
29.5%
Draw rate
30.6%
22.7%
Loss rate
58.3%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
69.4%
36.4%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
20.5%
Over 3.5 rate
19.4%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.43
44
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.37
Goals for per game
0.87
74.1%
Scoring rate
66.2%
48.1%
BTTS rate
52.9%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.75
81.8%
Scoring rate
55.6%
47.7%
BTTS rate
47.2%
1.04
Goals for per game
0.70
60.9%
Scoring rate
60.0%
52.2%
BTTS rate
50.0%
81
History Matches
68
1.37
Goals Mean
0.87
1.26
Goals Std
0.80
74.1%
Scored 1+ rate
66.2%
35.8%
Scored 2+ rate
14.7%
14.8%
Scored 3+ rate
5.9%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
0.75
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.94
Goals against per game
1.32
67.9%
Conceding rate
80.9%
0.84
Goals against per game
1.56
61.4%
Conceding rate
86.1%
1.30
Goals against per game
1.75
82.6%
Conceding rate
85.0%
81
History Matches
68
0.94
Conceded Mean
1.32
0.84
Conceded Std
1.01
19.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.8%
6.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.7%
0.84
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.1%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.8%
38.6%
Clean-sheet rate
13.9%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
39.1%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.1%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.8%
38.6%
Clean-sheet rate
13.9%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
81
History Matches
68
0.98
Result entropy
0.95
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.32
2.11
Stability score
5.15
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
81
Eligible Matches
68
26
Lead Matches
11
80.8%
Lead Win Rate
36.4%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.48
19
Trailing Matches
22
31.6%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
81
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.34
0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.05
Rest days
75.99
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.78
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
47
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.53
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.89
24
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.46
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.93
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
20
1.09
PPG
0.50
26.1%
Win rate
10.0%
30.4%
Draw rate
20.0%
43.5%
Loss rate
70.0%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
34.8%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
13.0%
Over 3.5 rate
15.0%
1.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
23
Current Competition Matches
20
1.09
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-0.26
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.05
8
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.40
1.63
Portability PPG Range
1.17
46.69
Portability Score
55.78
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
81
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO96.88
PPG0.63
GF0.50
GA-0.39
PPG0.59
PPG1.09
PPG1.20
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate13.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate24.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches13
Goals Mean0.50
Goals Std0.46
Scored 1+ rate7.9%
Scored 2+ rate21.1%
Scored 3+ rate8.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.75
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.78
History Matches13
Conceded Mean-0.39
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate13.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.71
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches13
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.27
Stability score-3.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.31
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches15
Lead Win Rate44.4%
Lead Points Retention0.37
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate4.3%
Trailing Win Rate10.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches3
Current Competition PPG0.59
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.79
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.17
Portability PPG Range0.46
Portability Score-9.09
Rest days2.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches7
Short Rest Points Per Match1.28
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.64
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.53
Current Team ELO96.88
Current Opponent ELO-96.88
Current ELO Difference193.8
Expected score0.27
History Matches13
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance6.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ceara

L
Athletic Club2–1Ceara2 Nov · away
Pick: Athletic Club 41% · hit
L
Ceara0–2Goias27 Oct · home
Pick: Ceara 42% · missed
D
Ceara2–2Juventude17 Oct · home
Pick: Ceara 39% · missed
L
Botafogo SP1–0Ceara13 Oct · away
Pick: Botafogo SP 37% · hit
W
Ceara1–0Criciuma8 Oct · home
Pick: Ceara 37% · hit

America Mineiro

W
Londrina1–3America Mineiro1 Nov · away
Pick: Londrina 47% · missed
W
America Mineiro1–0Cuiaba26 Oct · home
Pick: Cuiaba 37% · missed
W
America Mineiro1–0Operario-PR17 Oct · home
Pick: Operario-PR 40% · missed
L
Criciuma1–0America Mineiro12 Oct · away
Pick: Criciuma 61% · hit
L
America Mineiro0–1Fortaleza EC7 Oct · home
Pick: Fortaleza EC 50% · hit

About this match

Ceara and America Mineiro meet in Serie B on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 22:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Ceara win 52.8%, draw 26.1%, America Mineiro win 21.0%. The pick is Ceara win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.9%. Both teams to score: 49.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.