ScoreProb
La Liga Spain Round 12 2026

Celta Vigo vs Levante

Celta Vigo Home · Elo 1,596
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Levante Away · Elo 1,549
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Celta Vigo win
Celta Vigo winPick
54.4%
Draw
20.2%
Levante win
25.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.6%
No52.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.0%
Under 2.546.0%

How much we know

Celta Vigo history83 matches
Levante history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Celta Vigo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Celta Vigo are rated 46 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,596 against 1,549. On rating alone Celta Vigo would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.47 goals a game over 83 matches for Celta Vigo, against 1.37 over 70 for Levante.

  • Defences are close

    Celta Vigo concede 1.28 a game, Levante 1.33.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of Celta Vigo matches, against 46% for Levante. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Celta Vigo
Levante
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1595.9
ELO
1549.5
83
ELO · Matches
70
1595.9
Current Team ELO
1549.5
1549.5
Current Opponent ELO
1595.9
46.45
Current ELO Difference
-46.45
0.57
Expected score
0.43
83
History Matches
70
0.05
Residual Mean
0.03
53.68
Overperformance
52.59
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.60
1.50
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
83
Matches
70
1.52
PPG
1.49
41.0%
Win rate
42.9%
28.9%
Draw rate
20.0%
30.1%
Loss rate
37.1%
79.5%
Over 1.5 rate
75.7%
53.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.7%
26.5%
Over 3.5 rate
27.1%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
36
1.56
PPG
1.28
44.4%
Win rate
36.1%
22.2%
Draw rate
19.4%
33.3%
Loss rate
44.4%
86.1%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
47.2%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
27.8%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
36
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.47
Goals for per game
1.37
86.7%
Scoring rate
70.0%
65.1%
BTTS rate
48.6%
1.58
Goals for per game
1.28
88.9%
Scoring rate
63.9%
66.7%
BTTS rate
47.2%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
83
History Matches
70
1.47
Goals Mean
1.37
0.96
Goals Std
1.24
86.7%
Scored 1+ rate
70.0%
42.2%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
15.7%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
1.28
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.28
Goals against per game
1.33
73.5%
Conceding rate
72.9%
1.36
Goals against per game
1.44
77.8%
Conceding rate
77.8%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.50
0.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
83
History Matches
70
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.07
Conceded Std
1.13
37.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.4%
13.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.9%
1.36
Venue Conceded Mean
1.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
36.1%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
36.1%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
83
History Matches
70
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
1.35
Goal Difference Std
1.69
1.17
Stability score
4.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
83
Eligible Matches
70
21
Lead Matches
20
52.4%
Lead Win Rate
65.0%
0.65
Lead Points Retention
0.75
26
Trailing Matches
21
42.3%
Non-loss rate
23.8%
19.2%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
83
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.96
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.00
Rest days
76.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
15
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.47
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
50
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.54
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.63
17
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
1
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
1
Current Competition Matches
2
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
7
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.36
1.05
Portability PPG Range
0.95
58.48
Portability Score
57.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
83
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO46.45
PPG0.03
GF0.10
GA-0.05
PPG0.50
PPG0.28
PPG0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches13
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std-0.28
Scored 1+ rate16.7%
Scored 2+ rate2.2%
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.04
History Matches13
Conceded Mean-0.05
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate0.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches13
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.34
Stability score-3.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.49
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate18.5%
Trailing Win Rate4.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range0.10
Portability Score0.61
Rest days2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches12
Short Rest Points Per Match0.13
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Long Rest History Matches-11
Long Rest Points Per Match0.17
Current Team ELO46.45
Current Opponent ELO-46.45
Current ELO Difference92.90
Expected score0.13
History Matches13
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Celta Vigo

L
Rayo Vallecano3–0Celta Vigo31 Oct · away
Pick: Rayo Vallecano 37% · hit
D
Celta Vigo0–0Real Betis25 Oct · home
Pick: Real Betis 42% · missed
W
Celtic1–2Celta Vigo22 Oct · away
Pick: Celtic 48% · missed
W
Celta Vigo2–1Alaves18 Oct · home
Pick: Celta Vigo 41% · hit
L
Celta Vigo1–2Juventus15 Oct · home
Pick: Juventus 45% · hit

Levante

L
Levante0–2Atletico Madrid31 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Madrid 58% · hit
L
Real Sociedad2–1Levante25 Oct · away
Pick: Real Sociedad 48% · hit
W
Levante3–1Athletic Club21 Oct · home
Pick: Levante 44% · hit
D
Deportivo La Coruna1–1Levante16 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo La Coruna 60% · missed
D
Levante3–3Sevilla12 Oct · home
Pick: Sevilla 38% · missed

About this match

Celta Vigo and Levante meet in La Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Celta Vigo win 54.4%, draw 20.2%, Levante win 25.4%. The pick is Celta Vigo win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.0%. Both teams to score: 47.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.