ScoreProb
La Liga Spain Round 12 2026

Elche vs Real Betis

Elche Home · Elo 1,532
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Real Betis Away · Elo 1,655
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Real Betis win
Elche win
21.4%
Draw
20.8%
Real Betis winPick
57.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.4%
No43.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.5%
Under 2.543.5%

How much we know

Elche history71 matches
Real Betis history95 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Real Betis are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Real Betis are rated 124 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,655 against 1,532. On rating alone Real Betis would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Real Betis score more

    1.38 goals a game over 71 matches for Elche, against 1.77 over 95 for Real Betis.

  • Defences are close

    Elche concede 1.34 a game, Real Betis 1.24.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Elche matches, against 59% for Real Betis. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Elche
Real Betis
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1531.9
ELO
1655.5
71
ELO · Matches
95
1531.9
Current Team ELO
1655.5
1655.5
Current Opponent ELO
1531.9
-123.6
Current ELO Difference
123.6
0.33
Expected score
0.67
71
History Matches
95
0.03
Residual Mean
0.08
51.98
Overperformance
56.42
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
2.20
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
2.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.80
Goals against per game
0.50
20.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.67
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
95
1.44
PPG
1.76
38.0%
Win rate
49.5%
29.6%
Draw rate
27.4%
32.4%
Loss rate
23.2%
77.5%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
53.5%
Over 2.5 rate
58.9%
33.8%
Over 3.5 rate
34.7%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
49
1.92
PPG
1.63
54.1%
Win rate
44.9%
29.7%
Draw rate
28.6%
16.2%
Loss rate
26.5%
73.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.6%
54.1%
Over 2.5 rate
55.1%
37.8%
Over 3.5 rate
36.7%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
37
History Matches
49
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.38
Goals for per game
1.77
87.3%
Scoring rate
88.4%
62.0%
BTTS rate
63.2%
1.59
Goals for per game
1.69
89.2%
Scoring rate
85.7%
54.1%
BTTS rate
65.3%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
71
History Matches
95
1.38
Goals Mean
1.77
0.92
Goals Std
1.22
87.3%
Scored 1+ rate
88.4%
36.6%
Scored 2+ rate
54.7%
9.9%
Scored 3+ rate
21.1%
1.59
Venue Goals Mean
1.69
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.34
Goals against per game
1.24
71.8%
Conceding rate
71.6%
1.14
Goals against per game
1.29
59.5%
Conceding rate
75.5%
3.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
71
History Matches
95
1.34
Conceded Mean
1.24
1.19
Conceded Std
1.19
38.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.6%
18.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.6%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
12.7%
Failed-to-score rate
11.6%
40.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
10.8%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
12.7%
Failed-to-score rate
11.6%
40.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
10.8%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
95
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
1.61
Goal Difference Std
1.81
0.50
Stability score
5.19
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
95
19
Lead Matches
34
73.7%
Lead Win Rate
73.5%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.79
17
Trailing Matches
25
29.4%
Non-loss rate
48.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
95
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.73
Rest days
74.75
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
27
2.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.96
39
Normal Rest History Matches
54
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
27
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.59
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.85
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.29
0.87
Portability PPG Range
0.90
62.46
Portability Score
62.93
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
95
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-123.6
PPG-0.32
GF-0.39
GA0.10
PPG-2.50
PPG0.29
PPG-0.80
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-24
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate1.1%
History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate16.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-24
Goals Mean-0.39
Goals Std-0.29
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.68
History Matches-24
Conceded Mean0.10
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate6.4%
Conceded 3+ rate6.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.66
History Matches-24
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.19
Stability score-4.69
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.17
Eligible Matches-24
Lead Matches-15
Lead Win Rate0.2%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches-24
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.50
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.03
Portability Score-0.47
Rest days1.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-23
Short Rest Points Per Match0.54
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Long Rest History Matches14
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Current Team ELO-123.6
Current Opponent ELO123.6
Current ELO Difference-247.2
Expected score-0.34
History Matches-24
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-4.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Elche

L
Elche0–1Valencia1 Nov · home
Pick: Valencia 42% · hit
W
Pinatar1–3Elche27 Oct · away
Pick: Elche 36% · hit
W
Rayo Vallecano0–3Elche24 Oct · away
Pick: Rayo Vallecano 58% · missed
D
Villarreal0–0Elche17 Oct · away
Pick: Villarreal 66% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Real Betis

W
Real Betis2–1Malaga31 Oct · home
Pick: Real Betis 63% · hit
D
Celta Vigo0–0Real Betis25 Oct · away
Pick: Real Betis 42% · missed
W
Real Betis1–0Feyenoord21 Oct · home
Pick: Real Betis 51% · hit
L
Real Betis2–5Barcelona17 Oct · home
Pick: Barcelona 63% · hit
W
Real Betis3–2FC Porto14 Oct · home
Pick: Real Betis 40% · hit

About this match

Elche and Real Betis meet in La Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Elche win 21.4%, draw 20.8%, Real Betis win 57.8%. The pick is Real Betis win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.5%. Both teams to score: 56.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.