ScoreProb
Serie B Italy Round 11 2026

Cesena vs Catanzaro

Cesena Home · Elo 1,475
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Catanzaro Away · Elo 1,545
Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Cesena Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cesena win
Cesena winPick
46.7%
Draw
25.7%
Catanzaro win
27.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.8%
No45.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.1%
Under 2.545.9%

How much we know

Cesena history61 matches
Catanzaro history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Cesena are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Catanzaro are rated 71 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,545 against 1,475. On rating alone Catanzaro would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Catanzaro score more

    1.15 goals a game over 61 matches for Cesena, against 1.60 over 68 for Catanzaro.

  • Defences are close

    Cesena concede 1.30 a game, Catanzaro 1.35.

  • Catanzaro games more often go over 2.5 goals

    48% of Cesena matches, against 56% for Catanzaro. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cesena
Catanzaro
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1474.6
ELO
1545.4
61
ELO · Matches
68
1474.6
Current Team ELO
1545.4
1545.4
Current Opponent ELO
1474.6
-70.73
Current ELO Difference
70.73
0.40
Expected score
0.60
61
History Matches
68
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.03
48.26
Overperformance
52.51
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.30
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.34
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
68
1.33
PPG
1.50
34.4%
Win rate
39.7%
29.5%
Draw rate
30.9%
36.1%
Loss rate
29.4%
75.4%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
47.5%
Over 2.5 rate
55.9%
19.7%
Over 3.5 rate
39.7%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
34
1.37
PPG
1.15
33.3%
Win rate
29.4%
36.7%
Draw rate
26.5%
30.0%
Loss rate
44.1%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.9%
23.3%
Over 3.5 rate
35.3%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
30
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.15
Goals for per game
1.60
70.5%
Scoring rate
80.9%
54.1%
BTTS rate
58.8%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.29
80.0%
Scoring rate
73.5%
60.0%
BTTS rate
61.8%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
68
1.15
Goals Mean
1.60
0.97
Goals Std
1.13
70.5%
Scored 1+ rate
80.9%
32.8%
Scored 2+ rate
51.5%
11.5%
Scored 3+ rate
23.5%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.30
Goals against per game
1.35
73.8%
Conceding rate
72.1%
1.23
Goals against per game
1.50
70.0%
Conceding rate
79.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
68
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.14
Conceded Std
1.07
32.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.1%
18.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.7%
1.23
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
29.5%
Failed-to-score rate
19.1%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
29.5%
Failed-to-score rate
19.1%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
68
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.53
Goal Difference Std
1.52
0.32
Stability score
0.83
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
68
14
Lead Matches
21
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.78
20
Trailing Matches
20
30.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
15.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.79
Rest days
77.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.66
20
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.15
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.24
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.08
1.12
Portability PPG Range
0.16
50.77
Portability Score
86.18
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-70.73
PPG-0.17
GF-0.46
GA-0.06
PPG1.00
PPG0.22
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate10.4%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate9.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-7
Goals Mean-0.46
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.25
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean-0.06
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate3.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.21
History Matches-7
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.02
Stability score-0.50
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.12
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.40
Portability PPG Range0.96
Portability Score-35.41
Rest days-2.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Current Team ELO-70.73
Current Opponent ELO70.73
Current ELO Difference-141.5
Expected score-0.20
History Matches-7
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cesena

D
Sudtirol1–1Cesena31 Oct · away
Pick: Sudtirol 50% · missed
W
Cesena2–1Empoli27 Oct · home
Pick: Empoli 37% · missed
L
Modena3–0Cesena24 Oct · away
Pick: Modena 56% · hit
D
Cesena1–1Avellino18 Oct · home
Pick: Cesena 46% · missed
W
Virtus Entella1–2Cesena29 Aug · away
Pick: Virtus Entella 45% · missed

Catanzaro

D
Catanzaro1–1Padova31 Oct · home
Pick: Catanzaro 44% · missed
D
Benevento1–1Catanzaro27 Oct · away
Pick: Benevento 47% · missed
L
Catanzaro1–6Ascoli24 Oct · home
Pick: Ascoli 39% · hit
D
Hellas Verona2–2Catanzaro16 Oct · away
Pick: Hellas Verona 38% · missed
L
Pisa2–1Catanzaro30 Aug · away
Pick: Pisa 39% · hit

About this match

Cesena and Catanzaro meet in Serie B on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Cesena. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Cesena win 46.7%, draw 25.7%, Catanzaro win 27.6%. The pick is Cesena win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.1%. Both teams to score: 54.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.