ScoreProb
Serie B Italy Round 11 2026

Mantova vs Hellas Verona

Mantova Home · Elo 1,512
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hellas Verona Away · Elo 1,427
Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mantova win
Mantova winPick
53.4%
Draw
23.0%
Hellas Verona win
23.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.2%
No47.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.7%
Under 2.544.3%

How much we know

Mantova history65 matches
Hellas Verona history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Mantova are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Mantova are rated 85 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,512 against 1,427. On rating alone Mantova would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Mantova score more

    1.38 goals a game over 65 matches for Mantova, against 0.94 over 65 for Hellas Verona.

  • Hellas Verona concede fewer

    Mantova concede 1.55 a game, Hellas Verona 1.37.

  • Mantova games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of Mantova matches, against 45% for Hellas Verona. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mantova
Hellas Verona
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1511.7
ELO
1426.5
65
ELO · Matches
65
1511.7
Current Team ELO
1426.5
1426.5
Current Opponent ELO
1511.7
85.15
Current ELO Difference
-85.15
0.62
Expected score
0.38
65
History Matches
65
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.05
50.81
Overperformance
46.42
0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.00
2.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.50
2.60
Goals for per game
1.90
1.40
Goals against per game
1.10
70.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
2.29
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.21
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
3.16
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.44
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
65
1.20
PPG
0.89
33.8%
Win rate
18.5%
18.5%
Draw rate
33.8%
47.7%
Loss rate
47.7%
78.5%
Over 1.5 rate
66.2%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
44.6%
30.8%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
30
1.50
PPG
0.87
43.8%
Win rate
16.7%
18.8%
Draw rate
36.7%
37.5%
Loss rate
46.7%
78.1%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
56.3%
Over 2.5 rate
43.3%
28.1%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
2.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
32
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.38
Goals for per game
0.94
72.3%
Scoring rate
55.4%
55.4%
BTTS rate
46.2%
1.66
Goals for per game
0.73
78.1%
Scoring rate
56.7%
56.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
65
History Matches
65
1.38
Goals Mean
0.94
1.34
Goals Std
1.36
72.3%
Scored 1+ rate
55.4%
41.5%
Scored 2+ rate
20.0%
12.3%
Scored 3+ rate
6.2%
1.66
Venue Goals Mean
0.73
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
1.37
78.5%
Conceding rate
76.9%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.47
75.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
65
History Matches
65
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.37
1.29
Conceded Std
1.12
44.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.8%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.47
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
27.7%
Failed-to-score rate
44.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
43.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
27.7%
Failed-to-score rate
44.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
43.3%
21.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
65
0.94
Result entropy
0.94
2.01
Goal Difference Std
1.86
6.09
Stability score
6.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
65
19
Lead Matches
13
68.4%
Lead Win Rate
61.5%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.72
23
Trailing Matches
19
26.1%
Non-loss rate
15.8%
8.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.97
Rest days
75.97
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
41
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.60
21
Long Rest History Matches
32
1.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.03
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.73
Portability PPG Std
1.05
2.05
Portability PPG Range
2.45
40.72
Portability Score
32.16
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO85.15
PPG0.31
GF0.45
GA0.18
PPG3.00
PPG0.63
PPG0.40
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.45
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate16.9%
Scored 2+ rate21.5%
Scored 3+ rate6.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.92
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.08
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.18
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate4.6%
Conceded 3+ rate6.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.73
History Matches0
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.16
Stability score0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.71
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate6.9%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate10.3%
Trailing Win Rate8.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.33
Portability PPG Range-0.40
Portability Score8.56
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.72
Long Rest History Matches-11
Long Rest Points Per Match0.11
Current Team ELO85.15
Current Opponent ELO-85.15
Current ELO Difference170.3
Expected score0.24
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mantova

D
Modena1–1Mantova31 Oct · away
Pick: Modena 44% · missed
L
Mantova0–2Cremonese27 Oct · home
Pick: Mantova 58% · missed
W
Virtus Entella0–1Mantova24 Oct · away
Pick: Mantova 38% · hit
L
Mantova0–2Palermo17 Oct · home
Pick: Mantova 39% · missed
W
Mantova3–1Empoli30 Aug · home
Pick: Mantova 40% · hit

Hellas Verona

W
Hellas Verona3–0Carrarese1 Nov · home
Pick: Hellas Verona 48% · hit
W
Juve Stabia0–1Hellas Verona28 Oct · away
Pick: Juve Stabia 46% · missed
D
Hellas Verona1–1Pisa25 Oct · home
Pick: Hellas Verona 49% · missed
D
Hellas Verona2–2Catanzaro16 Oct · home
Pick: Hellas Verona 38% · missed
D
Padova1–1Hellas Verona29 Aug · away
Pick: Padova 38% · missed

About this match

Mantova and Hellas Verona meet in Serie B on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:15 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Mantova win 53.4%, draw 23.0%, Hellas Verona win 23.6%. The pick is Mantova win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.7%. Both teams to score: 52.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.