ScoreProb
Liga I Romania Round 15 2026

CFR 1907 Cluj vs Universitatea Craiova

CFR 1907 Cluj Home · Elo 1,600
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Universitatea Craiova Away · Elo 1,660
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Universitatea Craiova win
CFR 1907 Cluj win
32.0%
Draw
27.3%
Universitatea Craiova winPick
40.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.8%
No45.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.3%
Under 2.545.7%

How much we know

CFR 1907 Cluj history87 matches
Universitatea Craiova history93 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Universitatea Craiova are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Universitatea Craiova are rated 60 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,660 against 1,600. On rating alone Universitatea Craiova would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.53 goals a game over 87 matches for CFR 1907 Cluj, against 1.65 over 93 for Universitatea Craiova.

  • Universitatea Craiova concede fewer

    CFR 1907 Cluj concede 1.20 a game, Universitatea Craiova 0.99.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of CFR 1907 Cluj matches, against 51% for Universitatea Craiova. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
CFR 1907 Cluj
Universitatea Craiova
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1600.1
ELO
1659.9
87
ELO · Matches
93
1600.1
Current Team ELO
1659.9
1659.9
Current Opponent ELO
1600.1
-59.85
Current ELO Difference
59.85
0.41
Expected score
0.59
87
History Matches
93
0.06
Residual Mean
0.09
54.68
Overperformance
57.31
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.60
0.60
Goals for per game
1.40
2.60
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.50
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.62
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.75
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.29
Overall performance9 signals
90
87
Matches
93
1.61
PPG
1.82
42.5%
Win rate
51.6%
33.3%
Draw rate
26.9%
24.1%
Loss rate
21.5%
77.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.0%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.5%
28.7%
Over 3.5 rate
31.2%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
44
Matches
44
2.05
PPG
1.41
59.1%
Win rate
36.4%
27.3%
Draw rate
31.8%
13.6%
Loss rate
31.8%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
65.9%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
43.2%
29.5%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
44
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.53
Goals for per game
1.65
82.8%
Scoring rate
81.7%
57.5%
BTTS rate
50.5%
1.80
Goals for per game
1.27
86.4%
Scoring rate
68.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
47.7%
1.60
Goals for per game
2.17
80.0%
Scoring rate
83.3%
40.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
87
History Matches
93
1.53
Goals Mean
1.65
1.26
Goals Std
1.28
82.8%
Scored 1+ rate
81.7%
37.9%
Scored 2+ rate
47.3%
19.5%
Scored 3+ rate
21.5%
1.80
Venue Goals Mean
1.27
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.20
Goals against per game
0.99
69.0%
Conceding rate
61.3%
0.95
Goals against per game
1.18
59.1%
Conceding rate
65.9%
1.60
Goals against per game
1.33
60.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
87
History Matches
93
1.20
Conceded Mean
0.99
1.21
Conceded Std
1.08
32.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.7%
10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.6%
0.95
Venue Conceded Mean
1.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.7%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.3%
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.1%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.7%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.3%
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.1%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
87
History Matches
93
0.98
Result entropy
0.93
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.74
2.34
Stability score
6.70
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
87
Eligible Matches
93
27
Lead Matches
35
81.5%
Lead Win Rate
77.1%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.83
20
Trailing Matches
17
25.0%
Non-loss rate
29.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
23.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
87
Halftime Coverage Matches
93
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
77.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
15
1.30
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
54
Normal Rest History Matches
58
1.74
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.78
22
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
6
1.20
PPG
1.67
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
60.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.85
5
Current Competition Matches
6
1.20
Current Competition PPG
1.67
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.83
10
Competition Season Count
10
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.12
1.33
Portability PPG Range
0.42
53.20
Portability Score
80.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
87
Clean History Matches
93
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-59.85
PPG-0.21
GF-0.12
GA0.21
PPG-0.47
PPG0.64
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate6.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.12
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate1.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.03
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.21
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate8.5%
Conceded 3+ rate1.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.28
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score-4.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.46
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate4.3%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate-0.24
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.47
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.83
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.32
Portability PPG Range0.92
Portability Score-27.22
Rest days-0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.64
Current Team ELO-59.85
Current Opponent ELO59.85
Current ELO Difference-119.7
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.63
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

CFR 1907 Cluj

L
CFR 1907 Cluj1–3Universitatea Cluj28 Oct · home
Pick: CFR 1907 Cluj 42% · missed
W
Arges Pitesti0–1CFR 1907 Cluj12 Oct · away
Pick: Arges Pitesti 40% · missed
L
CFR 1907 Cluj1–3Universitatea Cluj8 Oct · home
Pick: CFR 1907 Cluj 41% · missed
W
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe1–3CFR 1907 Cluj1 Sep · away
Pick: CFR 1907 Cluj 44% · hit
W
Csikszereda2–3CFR 1907 Cluj29 Aug · away
Pick: CFR 1907 Cluj 46% · hit

Universitatea Craiova

W
Universitatea Craiova2–1FC Botosani1 Nov · home
Pick: Universitatea Craiova 56% · hit
D
FC Voluntari1–1Universitatea Craiova29 Oct · away
Pick: Universitatea Craiova 43% · missed
W
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe0–5Universitatea Craiova26 Oct · away
Pick: Universitatea Craiova 46% · hit
W
Inter Club d'Escaldes1–3Universitatea Craiova22 Oct · away
Pick: Universitatea Craiova 47% · hit
D
Universitatea Craiova1–1Getafe15 Oct · home
Pick: Universitatea Craiova 62% · missed

About this match

CFR 1907 Cluj and Universitatea Craiova meet in Liga I on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: CFR 1907 Cluj win 32.0%, draw 27.3%, Universitatea Craiova win 40.7%. The pick is Universitatea Craiova win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.3%. Both teams to score: 54.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.