ScoreProb
Liga I Romania Round 15 2026

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs FC Voluntari

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe Home · Elo 1,592
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Voluntari Away · Elo 1,606
Stadionul Sepsi, Sfantu Gheorghe Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe win
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe winPick
51.4%
Draw
23.7%
FC Voluntari win
24.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.5%
No52.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.8%
Under 2.548.2%

How much we know

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe history64 matches
FC Voluntari history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,592 against 1,606. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • FC Voluntari score more

    1.31 goals a game over 64 matches for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe, against 1.56 over 68 for FC Voluntari.

  • Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe concede fewer

    Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe concede 0.94 a game, FC Voluntari 1.16.

  • FC Voluntari games more often go over 2.5 goals

    38% of Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe matches, against 51% for FC Voluntari. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
FC Voluntari
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1592.4
ELO
1605.9
64
ELO · Matches
68
1592.4
Current Team ELO
1605.9
1605.9
Current Opponent ELO
1592.4
-13.59
Current ELO Difference
13.59
0.48
Expected score
0.52
64
History Matches
68
0.07
Residual Mean
0.08
55.68
Overperformance
55.90
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
0.40
Goals for per game
0.80
0.40
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.30
0.50
Goals for per game
1.30
0.70
Goals against per game
2.00
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.61
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.75
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
68
1.63
PPG
1.75
43.8%
Win rate
51.5%
31.3%
Draw rate
20.6%
25.0%
Loss rate
27.9%
70.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.5%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
51.5%
18.8%
Over 3.5 rate
26.5%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
34
1.82
PPG
1.44
51.5%
Win rate
41.2%
27.3%
Draw rate
20.6%
21.2%
Loss rate
38.2%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
73.5%
42.4%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
33
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.31
Goals for per game
1.56
73.4%
Scoring rate
77.9%
42.2%
BTTS rate
47.1%
1.61
Goals for per game
1.38
84.8%
Scoring rate
70.6%
45.5%
BTTS rate
47.1%
0.50
Goals for per game
0.83
50.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
64
History Matches
68
1.31
Goals Mean
1.56
1.10
Goals Std
1.25
73.4%
Scored 1+ rate
77.9%
42.2%
Scored 2+ rate
47.1%
9.4%
Scored 3+ rate
20.6%
1.61
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.94
Goals against per game
1.16
56.3%
Conceding rate
57.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.29
54.5%
Conceding rate
64.7%
0.50
Goals against per game
2.67
50.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
64
History Matches
68
0.94
Conceded Mean
1.16
1.06
Conceded Std
1.43
25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.8%
9.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.2%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
42.6%
26.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.1%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
42.6%
26.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.1%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
42.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
68
0.98
Result entropy
0.93
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.94
2.45
Stability score
6.84
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
67
22
Lead Matches
23
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
82.6%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.86
9
Trailing Matches
14
11.1%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
76.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
6
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.17
30
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.53
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.94
28
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
1.17
PPG
0.67
16.7%
Win rate
16.7%
66.7%
Draw rate
16.7%
16.7%
Loss rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
83.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.11
6
Current Competition Matches
6
1.17
Current Competition PPG
0.67
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.83
6
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.62
1.10
Portability PPG Range
1.58
55.76
Portability Score
44.80
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-13.59
PPG-0.13
GF-0.25
GA-0.22
PPG0.50
PPG0.38
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Failed-to-score rate4.5%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate10.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.25
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.50
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.22
Conceded Std-0.37
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.97
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.35
Stability score-4.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.58
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.83
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.22
Portability PPG Range-0.49
Portability Score10.95
Rest days0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.83
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Current Team ELO-13.59
Current Opponent ELO13.59
Current ELO Difference-27.18
Expected score-0.04
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

D
Oţelul1–1Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe1 Nov · away
Pick: Oţelul 41% · missed
D
Concordia1–1Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe29 Oct · away
Pick: Concordia 44% · missed
L
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe0–5Universitatea Craiova26 Oct · home
Pick: Universitatea Craiova 46% · hit
L
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe1–3CFR 1907 Cluj1 Sep · home
Pick: CFR 1907 Cluj 44% · hit
W
Arges Pitesti0–1Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe29 Aug · away
Pick: Arges Pitesti 47% · missed

FC Voluntari

L
FC Voluntari1–2Farul Constanta2 Nov · home
Pick: Farul Constanta 38% · hit
D
FC Voluntari1–1Universitatea Craiova29 Oct · home
Pick: Universitatea Craiova 43% · missed
L
Csikszereda2–1FC Voluntari24 Oct · away
Pick: Csikszereda 45% · hit
L
FC Voluntari1–2FCSB19 Oct · home
Pick: FCSB 45% · hit
W
Chindia Targoviste0–1FC Voluntari1 Sep · away
Pick: FC Voluntari 40% · hit

About this match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and FC Voluntari meet in Liga I on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadionul Sepsi, Sfantu Gheorghe. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe win 51.4%, draw 23.7%, FC Voluntari win 24.9%. The pick is Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.8%. Both teams to score: 47.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.