ScoreProb
Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg Germany Baden-Württemberg - 15 2026

CFR Pforzheim vs Normannia Gmünd

CFR Pforzheim Home · Elo 1,535
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Normannia Gmünd Away · Elo 1,434
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: CFR Pforzheim win
CFR Pforzheim winPick
60.7%
Draw
16.7%
Normannia Gmünd win
22.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.0%
No37.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.1%
Under 2.527.9%

How much we know

CFR Pforzheim history55 matches
Normannia Gmünd history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why CFR Pforzheim are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • CFR Pforzheim are rated 101 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,535 against 1,434. On rating alone CFR Pforzheim would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • CFR Pforzheim score more

    1.98 goals a game over 55 matches for CFR Pforzheim, against 1.56 over 55 for Normannia Gmünd.

  • Defences are close

    CFR Pforzheim concede 1.84 a game, Normannia Gmünd 1.75.

  • CFR Pforzheim games more often go over 2.5 goals

    76% of CFR Pforzheim matches, against 65% for Normannia Gmünd. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
CFR Pforzheim
Normannia Gmünd@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1534.8
ELO
1433.8
55
ELO · Matches
55
1534.8
Current Team ELO
1433.8
1433.8
Current Opponent ELO
1534.8
100.9
Current ELO Difference
-100.9
0.64
Expected score
0.36
55
History Matches
55
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.06
51.93
Overperformance
45.80
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.29
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.00
1.40
Goals for per game
0.60
1.80
Goals against per game
3.00
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.40
1.70
Goals for per game
1.10
2.10
Goals against per game
2.30
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.45
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
55
1.49
PPG
1.07
40.0%
Win rate
27.3%
29.1%
Draw rate
25.5%
30.9%
Loss rate
47.3%
90.9%
Over 1.5 rate
92.7%
76.4%
Over 2.5 rate
65.5%
58.2%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
27
1.69
PPG
1.30
42.3%
Win rate
33.3%
42.3%
Draw rate
29.6%
15.4%
Loss rate
37.0%
92.3%
Over 1.5 rate
92.6%
80.8%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
61.5%
Over 3.5 rate
37.0%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
26
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.98
Goals for per game
1.56
92.7%
Scoring rate
76.4%
76.4%
BTTS rate
65.5%
2.31
Goals for per game
1.67
92.3%
Scoring rate
81.5%
80.8%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.33
Goals for per game
0.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
55
History Matches
55
1.98
Goals Mean
1.56
1.33
Goals Std
1.41
92.7%
Scored 1+ rate
76.4%
56.4%
Scored 2+ rate
41.8%
29.1%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
2.31
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.84
Goals against per game
1.75
80.0%
Conceding rate
87.3%
1.46
Goals against per game
1.56
80.8%
Conceding rate
81.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
55
1.84
Conceded Mean
1.75
1.65
Conceded Std
1.08
47.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.0%
25.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.46
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.7%
7.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
7.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.7%
7.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
7.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
55
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
2.39
Goal Difference Std
1.98
0.91
Stability score
3.80
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
53
26
Lead Matches
16
69.2%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.67
18
Trailing Matches
22
16.7%
Non-loss rate
31.8%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
1.13
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.85
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
28
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
22
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.21
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.67
PPG
0.00
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
66.7%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.67
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.67
5
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.32
Portability PPG Std
0.56
0.86
Portability PPG Range
1.36
60.90
Portability Score
47.16
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO100.9
PPG0.42
GF0.42
GA0.09
PPG1.67
PPG0.40
PPG1.00
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.42
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate16.4%
Scored 2+ rate14.5%
Scored 3+ rate9.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.64
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.04
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.09
Conceded Std0.57
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate5.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.18
History Matches0
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.41
Stability score-2.89
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.44
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate6.7%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.24
Portability PPG Range-0.50
Portability Score13.75
Rest days-0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.75
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.64
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.11
Current Team ELO100.9
Current Opponent ELO-100.9
Current ELO Difference201.9
Expected score0.28
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance6.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

CFR Pforzheim

D
Reutlingen1–1CFR Pforzheim31 Oct · away
Pick: Reutlingen 54% · missed
L
CFR Pforzheim0–2FC 08 Villingen24 Oct · home
Pick: FC 08 Villingen 46% · hit
L
FC Nöttingen4–1CFR Pforzheim16 Oct · away
Pick: CFR Pforzheim 42% · missed
L
CFR Pforzheim1–5Young Boys Reutlingen7 Oct · home
Pick: CFR Pforzheim 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Normannia Gmünd

L
Normannia Gmünd1–3FV Ravensburg31 Oct · home
Pick: FV Ravensburg 47% · hit
W
Türkspor Neckarsulm2–4Normannia Gmünd25 Oct · away
Pick: Türkspor Neckarsulm 49% · missed
L
Normannia Gmünd1–3Essingen17 Oct · home
Pick: Essingen 52% · hit
L
Reutlingen3–0Normannia Gmünd29 Aug · away
Pick: Reutlingen 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

CFR Pforzheim and Normannia Gmünd meet in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: CFR Pforzheim win 60.7%, draw 16.7%, Normannia Gmünd win 22.6%. The pick is CFR Pforzheim win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.1%. Both teams to score: 63.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.