ScoreProb
Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg Germany Baden-Württemberg - 15 2026

Teningen vs FC Nöttingen

Teningen Home · Elo 1,492
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Nöttingen Away · Elo 1,528
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Nöttingen win
Teningen win
31.4%
Draw
21.4%
FC Nöttingen winPick
47.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes64.8%
No35.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.4%
Under 2.527.6%

How much we know

Teningen history3 matches
FC Nöttingen history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why FC Nöttingen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Nöttingen are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,528 against 1,492. On rating alone FC Nöttingen would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • FC Nöttingen score more

    1.67 goals a game over 3 matches for Teningen, against 2.09 over 54 for FC Nöttingen.

  • FC Nöttingen concede fewer

    Teningen concede 2.67 a game, FC Nöttingen 1.76.

  • Teningen games more often go over 2.5 goals

    100% of Teningen matches, against 69% for FC Nöttingen. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Teningen
FC Nöttingen@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1492.3
ELO
1528.1
3
ELO · Matches
54
1492.3
Current Team ELO
1528.1
1528.1
Current Opponent ELO
1492.3
-35.80
Current ELO Difference
35.80
0.45
Expected score
0.55
3
History Matches
54
-0.16
Residual Mean
0.02
47.93
Overperformance
51.10
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
3
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.80
1.67
Goals for per game
1.40
2.67
Goals against per game
1.80
33.3%
Win rate
20.0%
3
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.30
1.67
Goals for per game
1.60
2.67
Goals against per game
1.70
33.3%
Win rate
40.0%
1.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
2.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
3
Matches
54
1.00
PPG
1.56
33.3%
Win rate
48.1%
0.0%
Draw rate
11.1%
66.7%
Loss rate
40.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
68.5%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
30
0.00
PPG
1.43
0.0%
Win rate
46.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
3.3%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
76.7%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
63.3%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.92
1
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
2.09
100.0%
Scoring rate
79.6%
100.0%
BTTS rate
59.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.07
100.0%
Scoring rate
76.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
63.3%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
3
History Matches
54
1.67
Goals Mean
2.09
0.94
Goals Std
1.92
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
79.6%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
51.9%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
31.5%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
2.07
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.67
Goals against per game
1.76
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.9%
4.00
Goals against per game
2.23
100.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
2.67
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
3
History Matches
54
2.67
Conceded Mean
1.76
0.94
Conceded Std
1.57
100.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
33.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.8%
4.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
3
History Matches
54
0.58
Result entropy
0.88
1.63
Goal Difference Std
2.76
42.06
Stability score
12.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
3
Eligible Matches
53
0
Lead Matches
23
—
Lead Win Rate
87.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.90
1
Trailing Matches
17
0.0%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
3
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
1.04
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
1.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.08
1.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.08
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.88
Rest days
77.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
1
Normal Rest History Matches
29
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.48
1
Long Rest History Matches
21
0.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
1
Competition Season Count
5
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.29
—
Portability PPG Range
0.71
—
Portability Score
63.26
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
3
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-35.80
PPG-0.56
GF-0.43
GA0.91
PPG0.00
PPG-1.43
PPG0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-51
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-29
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches-51
Goals Mean-0.43
Goals Std-0.97
Scored 1+ rate20.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate1.9%
Venue Goals Mean-1.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.07
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.17
History Matches-51
Conceded Mean0.91
Conceded Std-0.63
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Conceded 2+ rate50.0%
Conceded 3+ rate5.6%
Venue Conceded Mean1.77
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.97
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.16
History Matches-51
Result entropy-0.30
Goal Difference Std-1.12
Stability score29.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.07
Eligible Matches-50
Lead Matches-23
Trailing Matches-16
Non-loss rate-0.24
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches-50
First Half Goals For Mean-0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.59
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches-28
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.48
Long Rest History Matches-20
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.38
Current Team ELO-35.80
Current Opponent ELO35.80
Current ELO Difference-71.61
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-51
Residual Mean-0.17
Overperformance-3.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Teningen

L
Teningen0–1Balingen31 Oct · home
Pick: Teningen 47% · missed
D
1. FC Muhlhausen4–4Teningen25 Oct · away
Pick: Teningen 46% · missed
L
Teningen2–4Karlsruhe II17 Oct · home
Pick: Teningen 42% · missed
L
Teningen1–2FC Holzhausen29 Aug · home
Pick: FC Holzhausen 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FC Nöttingen

L
Karlsruhe II2–1FC Nöttingen3 Nov · away
Pick: FC Nöttingen 45% · missed
L
FC Nöttingen1–21. FC Muhlhausen30 Oct · home
Pick: FC Nöttingen 71% · missed
W
FC Nöttingen4–1CFR Pforzheim16 Oct · home
Pick: CFR Pforzheim 42% · missed
L
FC Nöttingen0–1Oberachern29 Aug · home
Pick: Oberachern 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Teningen and FC Nöttingen meet in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Teningen win 31.4%, draw 21.4%, FC Nöttingen win 47.2%. The pick is FC Nöttingen win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.4%. Both teams to score: 64.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.