ScoreProb
USL League One United States Semi-finals 2026

Charlotte Independence vs Forward Madison

Charlotte Independence Home · Elo 1,551
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Forward Madison Away · Elo 1,507
American Legion Memorial Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Charlotte Independence win
Charlotte Independence winPick
42.5%
Draw
22.4%
Forward Madison win
35.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.8%
No38.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.2%
Under 2.535.8%

How much we know

Charlotte Independence history33 matches
Forward Madison history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 15 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 00:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Charlotte Independence are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Charlotte Independence are rated 44 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,551 against 1,507. On rating alone Charlotte Independence would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Charlotte Independence score more

    2.00 goals a game over 33 matches for Charlotte Independence, against 1.54 over 39 for Forward Madison.

  • Forward Madison concede fewer

    Charlotte Independence concede 1.73 a game, Forward Madison 1.41.

  • Charlotte Independence games more often go over 2.5 goals

    73% of Charlotte Independence matches, against 54% for Forward Madison. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Charlotte Independence
Forward Madison
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1550.7
ELO
1506.8
33
ELO · Matches
39
1550.7
Current Team ELO
1506.8
1506.8
Current Opponent ELO
1550.7
43.90
Current ELO Difference
-43.90
0.56
Expected score
0.44
33
History Matches
39
0.07
Residual Mean
0.02
54.14
Overperformance
51.10
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.30
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
2.30
1.80
Goals for per game
2.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
33
Matches
39
1.73
PPG
1.33
51.5%
Win rate
35.9%
18.2%
Draw rate
25.6%
30.3%
Loss rate
38.5%
90.9%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
72.7%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
51.5%
Over 3.5 rate
35.9%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
Venue performance10 signals
100
15
Matches
18
2.27
PPG
0.72
73.3%
Win rate
16.7%
6.7%
Draw rate
22.2%
20.0%
Loss rate
61.1%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
53.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
15
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.00
Goals for per game
1.54
97.0%
Scoring rate
71.8%
84.8%
BTTS rate
56.4%
2.13
Goals for per game
0.94
100.0%
Scoring rate
61.1%
73.3%
BTTS rate
55.6%
2.31
Goals for per game
1.94
93.8%
Scoring rate
83.3%
81.3%
BTTS rate
61.1%
33
History Matches
39
2.00
Goals Mean
1.54
1.13
Goals Std
1.45
97.0%
Scored 1+ rate
71.8%
57.6%
Scored 2+ rate
38.5%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
28.2%
2.13
Venue Goals Mean
0.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.73
Goals against per game
1.41
87.9%
Conceding rate
79.5%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.94
73.3%
Conceding rate
88.9%
1.44
Goals against per game
1.11
87.5%
Conceding rate
77.8%
33
History Matches
39
1.73
Conceded Mean
1.41
1.19
Conceded Std
1.19
48.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.5%
24.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.8%
1.40
Venue Conceded Mean
1.94
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
12.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
3.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
6.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
12.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
3.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
12.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
33
History Matches
39
0.92
Result entropy
0.99
1.58
Goal Difference Std
1.95
7.75
Stability score
1.31
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
33
Eligible Matches
39
16
Lead Matches
17
68.8%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.88
8
Trailing Matches
14
37.5%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
33
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
1.03
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
1.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.00
Rest days
78.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
15
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.63
14
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.11
Competition & season17 signals
170
16
Matches
18
2.19
PPG
1.72
68.8%
Win rate
50.0%
12.5%
Draw rate
22.2%
18.8%
Loss rate
27.8%
93.8%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
56.3%
Over 3.5 rate
38.9%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
16
Current Competition Matches
18
2.19
Current Competition PPG
1.72
0.88
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.83
3
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.31
1.02
Portability PPG Range
0.72
54.45
Portability Score
61.44
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
33
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO43.90
PPG0.39
GF0.46
GA0.32
PPG0.47
PPG1.54
PPG0.40
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate15.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.39
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.46
Goals Std-0.32
Scored 1+ rate25.2%
Scored 2+ rate19.1%
Scored 3+ rate5.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.45
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.32
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate11.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.38
History Matches-6
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.37
Stability score6.44
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.31
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.14
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate23.2%
Trailing Win Rate25.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG0.47
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.04
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.30
Portability Score-6.99
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.18
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.17
Current Team ELO43.90
Current Opponent ELO-43.90
Current ELO Difference87.81
Expected score0.13
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.31

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Charlotte Independence

W
Charlotte Independence5–1Naples2 Nov · home
Pick: Charlotte Independence 68% · hit
L
Portland Hearts of Pine4–1Charlotte Independence24 Oct · away
Pick: Charlotte Independence 41% · missed
W
Greenville Triumph0–3Charlotte Independence17 Oct · away
Pick: Charlotte Independence 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Forward Madison

W
Forward Madison2–1Spokane Velocity30 Oct · home
Pick: Forward Madison 47% · hit
D
Forward Madison0–0Union Omaha24 Oct · home
Pick: Forward Madison 41% · missed
W
Forward Madison2–0Portland Hearts of Pine17 Oct · home
Pick: Forward Madison 55% · hit
W
Richmond Kickers1–2Forward Madison29 Aug · away
Pick: Forward Madison 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Charlotte Independence and Forward Madison meet in USL League One on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 00:00 UTC. The match is played at American Legion Memorial Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Charlotte Independence win 42.5%, draw 22.4%, Forward Madison win 35.1%. The pick is Charlotte Independence win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.2%. Both teams to score: 61.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.