ScoreProb
Second League Bulgaria Round 15 2026

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Yantra 2019

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas Home · Elo 1,526
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Yantra 2019 Away · Elo 1,558
efbet Arena, Burgas Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas winPick
38.4%
Draw
23.4%
Yantra 2019 win
38.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.0%
No52.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.8%
Under 2.549.2%

How much we know

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas history65 matches
Yantra 2019 history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Chernomorets 1919 Burgas are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Yantra 2019 are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,558 against 1,526. On rating alone Yantra 2019 would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Chernomorets 1919 Burgas score more

    1.95 goals a game over 65 matches for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, against 1.33 over 69 for Yantra 2019.

  • Defences are close

    Chernomorets 1919 Burgas concede 0.98 a game, Yantra 2019 0.97.

  • Chernomorets 1919 Burgas games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Chernomorets 1919 Burgas matches, against 41% for Yantra 2019. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Yantra 2019
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1526.2
ELO
1558.3
65
ELO · Matches
69
1526.2
Current Team ELO
1558.3
1558.3
Current Opponent ELO
1526.2
-32.06
Current ELO Difference
32.06
0.45
Expected score
0.55
65
History Matches
69
0.01
Residual Mean
0.05
51.05
Overperformance
53.61
-0.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.30
0.70
Goals for per game
1.10
1.70
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
69
1.72
PPG
1.71
49.2%
Win rate
47.8%
24.6%
Draw rate
27.5%
26.2%
Loss rate
24.6%
75.4%
Over 1.5 rate
65.2%
50.8%
Over 2.5 rate
40.6%
32.3%
Over 3.5 rate
23.2%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
32
2.00
PPG
1.59
58.1%
Win rate
43.8%
25.8%
Draw rate
28.1%
16.1%
Loss rate
28.1%
74.2%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
45.2%
Over 2.5 rate
43.8%
32.3%
Over 3.5 rate
18.8%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.27
31
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.95
Goals for per game
1.33
75.4%
Scoring rate
72.5%
46.2%
BTTS rate
40.6%
2.16
Goals for per game
1.22
80.6%
Scoring rate
78.1%
41.9%
BTTS rate
46.9%
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
60.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
65
History Matches
69
1.95
Goals Mean
1.33
1.81
Goals Std
1.18
75.4%
Scored 1+ rate
72.5%
49.2%
Scored 2+ rate
37.7%
33.8%
Scored 3+ rate
17.4%
2.16
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.98
Goals against per game
0.97
61.5%
Conceding rate
58.0%
0.74
Goals against per game
0.97
51.6%
Conceding rate
59.4%
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
65
History Matches
69
0.98
Conceded Mean
0.97
1.05
Conceded Std
1.01
23.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.4%
10.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.2%
0.74
Venue Conceded Mean
0.97
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
42.0%
24.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
48.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
42.0%
24.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
48.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
42.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
69
0.95
Result entropy
0.96
2.17
Goal Difference Std
1.54
4.91
Stability score
4.15
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
67
18
Lead Matches
22
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.79
10
Trailing Matches
15
10.0%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.81
Rest days
77.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
5
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.60
39
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.95
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.03
23
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.31
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
0.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.26
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.80
-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.83
Portability PPG Std
0.37
2.43
Portability PPG Range
1.00
37.52
Portability Score
57.54
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-32.06
PPG0.01
GF0.62
GA0.01
PPG-0.80
PPG0.41
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate7.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.62
Goals Std0.63
Scored 1+ rate2.9%
Scored 2+ rate11.5%
Scored 3+ rate16.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.94
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.40
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.01
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate3.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.55
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.63
Stability score0.76
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.36
Eligible Matches-18
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate5.1%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-18
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.20
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.46
Portability PPG Range1.43
Portability Score-20.02
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.40
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Current Team ELO-32.06
Current Opponent ELO32.06
Current ELO Difference-64.13
Expected score-0.09
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

W
Nesebar1–2Chernomorets 1919 Burgas31 Oct · away
Pick: Nesebar 53% · missed
D
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas1–1Sportist Svoge23 Oct · home
Pick: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 50% · missed
L
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas0–4Botev Plovdiv18 Oct · home
Pick: Botev Plovdiv 43% · hit
W
Volov Shumen0–2Chernomorets 1919 Burgas4 Oct · away
Pick: Volov Shumen 45% · missed
W
Pirin Blagoevgrad0–3Chernomorets 1919 Burgas29 Aug · away
Pick: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 57% · hit

Yantra 2019

W
Yantra 20193–0Hebar 191829 Oct · home
Pick: Yantra 2019 52% · hit
D
CSKA Sofia II3–3Yantra 201923 Oct · away
Pick: CSKA Sofia II 46% · missed
L
Yantra 20190–2Lokomotiv Plovdiv16 Oct · home
Pick: Yantra 2019 37% · missed
W
Oborishte1–3Yantra 20194 Oct · away
Pick: Yantra 2019 37% · hit
D
Nesebar1–1Yantra 201929 Aug · away
Pick: Nesebar 39% · missed

About this match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and Yantra 2019 meet in Second League on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at efbet Arena, Burgas. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win 38.4%, draw 23.4%, Yantra 2019 win 38.2%. The pick is Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.8%. Both teams to score: 48.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.