ScoreProb
Second League Bulgaria Round 15 2026

CSKA Sofia II vs Rilski Sportist

CSKA Sofia II Home · Elo 1,605
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rilski Sportist Away · Elo 1,565
Stadion Dragalevtsi, Sofia Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: CSKA Sofia II win
CSKA Sofia II winPick
60.1%
Draw
21.1%
Rilski Sportist win
18.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.0%
No50.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.5%
Under 2.545.5%

How much we know

CSKA Sofia II history61 matches
Rilski Sportist history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.1%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why CSKA Sofia II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • CSKA Sofia II are rated 39 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,605 against 1,565. On rating alone CSKA Sofia II would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • CSKA Sofia II score more

    1.59 goals a game over 61 matches for CSKA Sofia II, against 1.40 over 57 for Rilski Sportist.

  • Defences are close

    CSKA Sofia II concede 1.02 a game, Rilski Sportist 1.09.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    44% of CSKA Sofia II matches, against 49% for Rilski Sportist. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
CSKA Sofia II
Rilski Sportist
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1604.6
ELO
1565.5
61
ELO · Matches
57
1604.6
Current Team ELO
1565.5
1565.5
Current Opponent ELO
1604.6
39.17
Current ELO Difference
-39.17
0.56
Expected score
0.44
61
History Matches
57
0.07
Residual Mean
0.06
55.59
Overperformance
54.60
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.10
1.90
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.30
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
57
1.66
PPG
1.81
45.9%
Win rate
52.6%
27.9%
Draw rate
22.8%
26.2%
Loss rate
24.6%
68.9%
Over 1.5 rate
71.9%
44.3%
Over 2.5 rate
49.1%
24.6%
Over 3.5 rate
21.1%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
26
1.89
PPG
1.77
55.6%
Win rate
50.0%
22.2%
Draw rate
26.9%
22.2%
Loss rate
23.1%
70.4%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
29.6%
Over 3.5 rate
11.5%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.06
27
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.59
Goals for per game
1.40
72.1%
Scoring rate
78.9%
44.3%
BTTS rate
54.4%
1.96
Goals for per game
1.27
74.1%
Scoring rate
80.8%
44.4%
BTTS rate
61.5%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
61
History Matches
57
1.59
Goals Mean
1.40
1.60
Goals Std
1.06
72.1%
Scored 1+ rate
78.9%
41.0%
Scored 2+ rate
45.6%
19.7%
Scored 3+ rate
10.5%
1.96
Venue Goals Mean
1.27
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.02
Goals against per game
1.09
57.4%
Conceding rate
70.2%
0.89
Goals against per game
1.00
59.3%
Conceding rate
76.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
57
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.09
1.18
Conceded Std
0.96
24.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.1%
13.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.8%
0.89
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.8%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.8%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
57
0.97
Result entropy
0.93
1.99
Goal Difference Std
1.45
3.10
Stability score
7.18
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
23
21
Lead Matches
2
90.5%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
1.00
15
Trailing Matches
5
13.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
23
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.30
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.90
Rest days
78.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
6
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.17
28
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.64
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.93
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.75
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.20
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.20
5
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.57
1.55
Portability PPG Range
1.50
46.53
Portability Score
46.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO39.17
PPG-0.15
GF0.19
GA-0.07
PPG1.20
PPG0.12
PPG1.20
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate12.8%
Failed-to-score rate6.8%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate17.7%
Failed-to-score rate6.7%
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.19
Goals Std0.55
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate9.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.69
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.26
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std0.22
Clean-sheet rate12.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate4.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.23
History Matches4
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.53
Stability score-4.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.02
Eligible Matches37
Lead Matches19
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate6.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches37
First Half Goals For Mean0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.20
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.05
Portability Score-0.21
Rest days-3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.49
Long Rest History Matches14
Long Rest Points Per Match0.71
Current Team ELO39.17
Current Opponent ELO-39.17
Current ELO Difference78.35
Expected score0.11
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.37

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

CSKA Sofia II

D
CSKA Sofia II3–3Yantra 201923 Oct · home
Pick: CSKA Sofia II 46% · missed
L
Fratria1–0CSKA Sofia II29 Aug · away
Pick: Fratria 39% · hit
D
CSKA Sofia II1–1Ludogorets II25 Aug · home
Pick: CSKA Sofia II 60% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Rilski Sportist

D
Rilski Sportist0–0Vihren30 Oct · home
Pick: Vihren 39% · missed
L
Beroe3–1Rilski Sportist23 Oct · away
Pick: Beroe 47% · hit
L
Rilski Sportist2–3Dunav Ruse17 Oct · home
Pick: Dunav Ruse 46% · hit
W
Zagorets0–4Rilski Sportist4 Oct · away
Pick: Rilski Sportist 41% · hit
D
Dobrudzha0–0Rilski Sportist29 Aug · away
Pick: Dobrudzha 53% · missed

About this match

CSKA Sofia II and Rilski Sportist meet in Second League on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Dragalevtsi, Sofia. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: CSKA Sofia II win 60.1%, draw 21.1%, Rilski Sportist win 18.8%. The pick is CSKA Sofia II win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.5%. Both teams to score: 50.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.