ScoreProb
4. liga - Divizie B Czechia Group B - 14 2026

Chomutov vs Slovan Velvary

Chomutov Home · Elo 1,568
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Slovan Velvary Away · Elo 1,450
Letni stadion na Zadnich Vinohradech, Chomutov Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:14 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chomutov win
Chomutov winPick
59.2%
Draw
19.0%
Slovan Velvary win
21.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.7%
No43.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.9%
Under 2.532.1%

How much we know

Chomutov history56 matches
Slovan Velvary history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:14 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 17:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Chomutov are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chomutov are rated 118 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,568 against 1,450. On rating alone Chomutov would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.71 goals a game over 56 matches for Chomutov, against 1.60 over 55 for Slovan Velvary.

  • Chomutov concede fewer

    Chomutov concede 1.70 a game, Slovan Velvary 2.07.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    68% of Chomutov matches, against 67% for Slovan Velvary. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chomutov
Slovan Velvary
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1567.7
ELO
1449.7
56
ELO · Matches
55
1567.7
Current Team ELO
1449.7
1449.7
Current Opponent ELO
1567.7
118.0
Current ELO Difference
-118.0
0.66
Expected score
0.34
56
History Matches
55
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.04
54.05
Overperformance
47.11
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.10
2.30
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
2.10
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.68
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.92
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
55
1.48
PPG
1.18
44.6%
Win rate
34.5%
14.3%
Draw rate
14.5%
41.1%
Loss rate
50.9%
80.4%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
67.9%
Over 2.5 rate
67.3%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
2.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
26
1.58
PPG
1.27
50.0%
Win rate
38.5%
7.7%
Draw rate
11.5%
42.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
76.9%
Over 2.5 rate
73.1%
34.6%
Over 3.5 rate
46.2%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.59
26
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.71
Goals for per game
1.60
83.9%
Scoring rate
76.4%
64.3%
BTTS rate
67.3%
1.73
Goals for per game
1.54
80.8%
Scoring rate
76.9%
65.4%
BTTS rate
65.4%
2.67
Goals for per game
2.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
100.0%
56
History Matches
55
1.71
Goals Mean
1.60
1.36
Goals Std
1.32
83.9%
Scored 1+ rate
76.4%
46.4%
Scored 2+ rate
45.5%
21.4%
Scored 3+ rate
27.3%
1.73
Venue Goals Mean
1.54
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.70
Goals against per game
2.07
76.8%
Conceding rate
89.1%
1.54
Goals against per game
2.35
80.8%
Conceding rate
84.6%
0.33
Goals against per game
1.67
33.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
56
History Matches
55
1.70
Conceded Mean
2.07
1.73
Conceded Std
1.68
41.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.7%
26.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.9%
1.54
Venue Conceded Mean
2.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.2%
Clean-sheet rate
10.9%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.2%
Clean-sheet rate
10.9%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
23.2%
Clean-sheet rate
10.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
55
0.91
Result entropy
0.90
2.39
Goal Difference Std
2.17
8.66
Stability score
9.77
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
55
21
Lead Matches
11
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.94
18
Trailing Matches
25
16.7%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.89
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.15
0.96
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.65
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.15
29
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.34
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
2.33
100.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
3.00
Current Competition PPG
2.33
2.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
7
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
1.00
Portability PPG Std
0.64
2.47
Portability PPG Range
1.55
33.31
Portability Score
43.71
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO118.0
PPG0.30
GF0.11
GA-0.38
PPG0.67
PPG0.31
PPG0.60
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate12.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate3.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.11
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate7.6%
Scored 2+ rate1.0%
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.35
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.38
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate12.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.84
History Matches1
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.21
Stability score-1.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.17
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.36
Portability PPG Range0.91
Portability Score-10.40
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.51
Long Rest History Matches11
Long Rest Points Per Match0.12
Current Team ELO118.0
Current Opponent ELO-118.0
Current ELO Difference236.0
Expected score0.33
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.94
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chomutov

W
Újezd Praha 41–2Chomutov31 Oct · away
Pick: Chomutov 45% · hit
W
Chomutov1–0Brandýs nad Labem24 Oct · home
Pick: Chomutov 63% · hit
W
Sokol Hostouň1–3Chomutov18 Oct · away
Pick: Sokol Hostouň 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Slovan Velvary

L
Slovan Velvary2–4Baník Sokolov31 Oct · home
Pick: Baník Sokolov 46% · hit
L
Rapid Psáry3–1Slovan Velvary24 Oct · away
Pick: Slovan Velvary 46% · missed
L
Slovan Velvary0–3Slavoj Vyšehrad17 Oct · home
Pick: Slovan Velvary 69% · missed
W
Slovan Velvary2–1Karlovy Vary29 Aug · home
Pick: Karlovy Vary 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Chomutov and Slovan Velvary meet in 4. liga - Divizie B on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. The match is played at Letni stadion na Zadnich Vinohradech, Chomutov. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:14 UTC: Chomutov win 59.2%, draw 19.0%, Slovan Velvary win 21.8%. The pick is Chomutov win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.9%. Both teams to score: 56.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.