ScoreProb
Primera División Peru Round 16 2026

Cienciano vs Sport Huancayo

Cienciano Home · Elo 1,520
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sport Huancayo Away · Elo 1,493
Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cienciano win
Cienciano winPick
54.3%
Draw
24.8%
Sport Huancayo win
20.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.6%
No44.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.9%
Under 2.545.1%

How much we know

Cienciano history69 matches
Sport Huancayo history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 01:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Cienciano are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cienciano are rated 27 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,520 against 1,493. On rating alone Cienciano would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.43 goals a game over 69 matches for Cienciano, against 1.43 over 56 for Sport Huancayo.

  • Cienciano concede fewer

    Cienciano concede 1.25 a game, Sport Huancayo 1.43.

  • Sport Huancayo games more often go over 2.5 goals

    48% of Cienciano matches, against 63% for Sport Huancayo. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cienciano
Sport Huancayo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1519.6
ELO
1492.5
69
ELO · Matches
56
1519.6
Current Team ELO
1492.5
1492.5
Current Opponent ELO
1519.6
27.05
Current ELO Difference
-27.05
0.54
Expected score
0.46
69
History Matches
56
0.01
Residual Mean
0.00
50.59
Overperformance
49.75
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.70
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.50
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.96
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.74
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
56
1.38
PPG
1.38
36.2%
Win rate
39.3%
29.0%
Draw rate
19.6%
34.8%
Loss rate
41.1%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
80.4%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
27.5%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
27
1.84
PPG
0.89
53.1%
Win rate
22.2%
25.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
21.9%
Loss rate
55.6%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
56.3%
Over 2.5 rate
63.0%
34.4%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
32
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.43
Goals for per game
1.43
72.5%
Scoring rate
82.1%
53.6%
BTTS rate
64.3%
1.94
Goals for per game
1.07
84.4%
Scoring rate
77.8%
59.4%
BTTS rate
63.0%
1.53
Goals for per game
1.27
68.4%
Scoring rate
86.4%
57.9%
BTTS rate
72.7%
69
History Matches
56
1.43
Goals Mean
1.43
1.32
Goals Std
1.15
72.5%
Scored 1+ rate
82.1%
43.5%
Scored 2+ rate
37.5%
15.9%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.94
Venue Goals Mean
1.07
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.25
Goals against per game
1.43
75.4%
Conceding rate
76.8%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.74
68.8%
Conceding rate
74.1%
1.53
Goals against per game
1.68
84.2%
Conceding rate
81.8%
69
History Matches
56
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.43
1.00
Conceded Std
1.18
37.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
8.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.74
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
56
1.00
Result entropy
0.96
1.75
Goal Difference Std
1.79
0.41
Stability score
4.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
56
17
Lead Matches
13
70.6%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.79
18
Trailing Matches
16
33.3%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.31
Rest days
77.40
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.13
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
32
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.44
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.69
28
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.03
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
22
1.32
PPG
1.05
36.8%
Win rate
27.3%
21.1%
Draw rate
22.7%
42.1%
Loss rate
50.0%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
57.9%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
36.8%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
19
Current Competition Matches
22
1.32
Current Competition PPG
1.05
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.41
6
Competition Season Count
3
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.61
1.00
Portability PPG Range
1.45
57.18
Portability Score
45.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO27.05
PPG0.00
GF0.01
GA-0.18
PPG0.27
PPG0.95
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate1.4%
Failed-to-score rate9.7%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches13
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate6.0%
Scored 3+ rate1.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.86
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std1.16
History Matches13
Conceded Mean-0.18
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate1.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.71
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.33
History Matches13
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score-3.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.08
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate14.6%
Trailing Win Rate10.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches-3
Current Competition PPG0.27
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.41
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.24
Portability PPG Range-0.45
Portability Score12.18
Rest days-1.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.39
Current Team ELO27.05
Current Opponent ELO-27.05
Current ELO Difference54.11
Expected score0.08
History Matches13
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.84
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cienciano

W
Cienciano1–0UTC Cajamarca18 Oct · home
Pick: Cienciano 56% · hit
L
Cienciano1–2Cusco31 Aug · home
Pick: Cienciano 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sport Huancayo

W
Sport Huancayo2–0FBC Melgar2 Nov · home
Pick: FBC Melgar 44% · missed
L
Juan Pablo II College2–0Sport Huancayo27 Oct · away
Pick: Juan Pablo II College 44% · hit
W
Sport Huancayo4–1Alianza Atletico24 Oct · home
Pick: Alianza Atletico 39% · missed
W
Sport Huancayo2–1Cusco16 Oct · home
Pick: Sport Huancayo 39% · hit
W
ADT1–3Sport Huancayo30 Aug · away
Pick: ADT 51% · missed

About this match

Cienciano and Sport Huancayo meet in Primera División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 01:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Cienciano win 54.3%, draw 24.8%, Sport Huancayo win 20.8%. The pick is Cienciano win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.9%. Both teams to score: 55.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.