CIL Blaj vs Metalurgistul Cugir
Match result probability Model pick: Metalurgistul Cugir win
CIL Blaj win
32.9%
Draw
25.2%
Metalurgistul Cugir winPick
41.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes52.7%
No47.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.555.9%
Under 2.544.1%
How much we know
CIL Blaj history33 matches
Metalurgistul Cugir history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Metalurgistul Cugir
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Metalurgistul Cugir are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,470 against 1,466. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Metalurgistul Cugir score far more
0.94 goals a game over 33 matches for CIL Blaj, against 1.63 over 35 for Metalurgistul Cugir.
-
Defences are close
CIL Blaj concede 1.61 a game, Metalurgistul Cugir 1.66.
-
Metalurgistul Cugir games more often go over 2.5 goals
48% of CIL Blaj matches, against 66% for Metalurgistul Cugir. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Metalurgistul Cugir@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1469.7
ELO
1465.6
33
ELO · Matches
35
1469.7
Current Team ELO
1465.6
1465.6
Current Opponent ELO
1469.7
4.11
Current ELO Difference
-4.11
0.51
Expected score
0.49
33
History Matches
35
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.06
47.14
Overperformance
46.45
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
1.60
Goals for per game
3.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.70
1.30
Goals for per game
2.20
1.50
Goals against per game
2.10
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.79
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.48
Overall performance9 signals 90
33
Matches
35
1.06
PPG
1.11
27.3%
Win rate
28.6%
24.2%
Draw rate
25.7%
48.5%
Loss rate
45.7%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
82.9%
48.5%
Over 2.5 rate
65.7%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
34.3%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.42
Venue performance10 signals 100
16
Matches
19
1.19
PPG
1.16
31.3%
Win rate
31.6%
25.0%
Draw rate
21.1%
43.8%
Loss rate
47.4%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
31.3%
Over 2.5 rate
68.4%
6.3%
Over 3.5 rate
42.1%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.74
16
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.94
Goals for per game
1.63
54.5%
Scoring rate
74.3%
42.4%
BTTS rate
60.0%
0.88
Goals for per game
1.95
62.5%
Scoring rate
84.2%
43.8%
BTTS rate
63.2%
33
History Matches
35
0.94
Goals Mean
1.63
1.07
Goals Std
1.87
54.5%
Scored 1+ rate
74.3%
27.3%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
9.1%
Scored 3+ rate
17.1%
0.88
Venue Goals Mean
1.95
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.61
Goals against per game
1.66
81.8%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.74
75.0%
Conceding rate
78.9%
33
History Matches
35
1.61
Conceded Mean
1.66
1.20
Conceded Std
1.19
45.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.4%
24.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.6%
1.25
Venue Conceded Mean
1.74
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
45.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
45.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
33
History Matches
35
0.95
Result entropy
0.97
1.77
Goal Difference Std
2.42
4.53
Stability score
3.06
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
17
Eligible Matches
22
3
Lead Matches
2
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.67
6
Trailing Matches
5
16.7%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
17
Halftime Coverage Matches
22
0.41
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.95
1.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
79.90
Rest days
93.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
14
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
18
Long Rest History Matches
18
0.89
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.76
Portability PPG Std
0.42
1.67
Portability PPG Range
0.96
39.61
Portability Score
54.20
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
33
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO4.11
PPG-0.05
GF-0.69
GA-0.05
PPG0.03
PPG1.00
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate19.7%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate3.9%
Failed-to-score rate21.7%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.69
Goals Std-0.80
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-1.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.52
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.05
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.65
Stability score1.47
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.54
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate16.7%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate16.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.34
Portability PPG Range0.71
Portability Score-14.59
Rest days-14.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.23
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Current Team ELO4.11
Current Opponent ELO-4.11
Current ELO Difference8.23
Expected score0.01
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.26
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
CIL Blaj
D
CIL Blaj2–2Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii31 Oct · home
Pick: CIL Blaj 43% · missed L
Timişul Şag3–0CIL Blaj23 Oct · away
Pick: Timişul Şag 51% · hit D
Unirea Sântana0–0CIL Blaj17 Oct · away
Pick: CIL Blaj 38% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Metalurgistul Cugir
D
Unirea Sântana0–0Metalurgistul Cugir31 Oct · away
Pick: Unirea Sântana 38% · missed W
Metalurgistul Cugir2–1Universitatea Alba Iulia23 Oct · home
Pick: Metalurgistul Cugir 42% · hit W
Progresul Pecica1–2Metalurgistul Cugir17 Oct · away
Pick: Metalurgistul Cugir 41% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
CIL Blaj and Metalurgistul Cugir meet in Liga III - Serie 7 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: CIL Blaj win 32.9%, draw 25.2%, Metalurgistul Cugir win 41.9%. The pick is Metalurgistul Cugir win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.9%. Both teams to score: 52.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.