Unirea Sântana vs Unirea Alba Iulia
Match result probability Model pick: Unirea Alba Iulia win
Unirea Sântana win
28.8%
Draw
27.9%
Unirea Alba Iulia winPick
43.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes48.9%
No51.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.547.8%
Under 2.552.2%
How much we know
Unirea Sântana history24 matches
Unirea Alba Iulia history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Unirea Alba Iulia
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Unirea Alba Iulia are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Unirea Alba Iulia are rated 86 Elo points higher
Elo 1,628 against 1,541. On rating alone Unirea Alba Iulia would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.
-
Unirea Alba Iulia score more
1.54 goals a game over 24 matches for Unirea Sântana, against 2.21 over 43 for Unirea Alba Iulia.
-
Unirea Alba Iulia concede fewer
Unirea Sântana concede 1.04 a game, Unirea Alba Iulia 0.67.
-
Unirea Alba Iulia games more often go over 2.5 goals
46% of Unirea Sântana matches, against 60% for Unirea Alba Iulia. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 6 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Unirea Alba Iulia@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1541.1
ELO
1627.6
24
ELO · Matches
43
1541.1
Current Team ELO
1627.6
1627.6
Current Opponent ELO
1541.1
-86.48
Current ELO Difference
86.48
0.38
Expected score
0.62
24
History Matches
43
0.10
Residual Mean
0.14
55.45
Overperformance
59.57
0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.00
2.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.80
2.50
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.61
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.04
Overall performance9 signals 90
24
Matches
43
1.75
PPG
1.98
50.0%
Win rate
60.5%
25.0%
Draw rate
16.3%
25.0%
Loss rate
23.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
74.4%
45.8%
Over 2.5 rate
60.5%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
27.9%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.34
Venue performance10 signals 100
14
Matches
23
1.93
PPG
1.61
57.1%
Win rate
43.5%
21.4%
Draw rate
30.4%
21.4%
Loss rate
26.1%
64.3%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
35.7%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.45
14
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.54
Goals for per game
2.21
75.0%
Scoring rate
76.7%
41.7%
BTTS rate
32.6%
1.57
Goals for per game
1.91
71.4%
Scoring rate
65.2%
21.4%
BTTS rate
34.8%
24
History Matches
43
1.54
Goals Mean
2.21
1.22
Goals Std
1.92
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
76.7%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
53.5%
20.8%
Scored 3+ rate
41.9%
1.57
Venue Goals Mean
1.91
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.04
Goals against per game
0.67
58.3%
Conceding rate
48.8%
0.57
Goals against per game
0.78
35.7%
Conceding rate
56.5%
24
History Matches
43
1.04
Conceded Mean
0.67
1.21
Conceded Std
0.80
29.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
16.3%
8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.3%
0.57
Venue Conceded Mean
0.78
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
51.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
64.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.5%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
51.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
64.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.5%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
51.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
24
History Matches
43
0.95
Result entropy
0.85
1.89
Goal Difference Std
2.34
5.36
Stability score
14.54
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
14
Eligible Matches
29
6
Lead Matches
14
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
4
Trailing Matches
8
0.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
14
Halftime Coverage Matches
29
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.28
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.17
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
93.90
Rest days
93.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
14
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.79
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.08
9
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.89
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.94
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
7
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
—
Portability PPG Std
0.23
—
Portability PPG Range
0.58
—
Portability Score
68.39
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
24
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-86.48
PPG-0.23
GF-0.67
GA0.37
PPG0.32
PPG0.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate1.7%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate20.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-19
Goals Mean-0.67
Goals Std-0.70
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.21
Venue Goals Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.69
History Matches-19
Conceded Mean0.37
Conceded Std0.41
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate12.9%
Conceded 3+ rate6.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.25
History Matches-19
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.44
Stability score-9.17
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.41
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.68
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-5
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Current Team ELO-86.48
Current Opponent ELO86.48
Current ELO Difference-173.0
Expected score-0.24
History Matches-19
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-4.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Unirea Sântana
D
Unirea Sântana0–0Metalurgistul Cugir31 Oct · home
Pick: Unirea Sântana 38% · missed L
Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii3–0Unirea Sântana23 Oct · away
Pick: Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii 47% · hit D
Unirea Sântana0–0CIL Blaj17 Oct · home
Pick: CIL Blaj 38% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Unirea Alba Iulia
W
Universitatea Alba Iulia0–3Unirea Alba Iulia30 Oct · away
Pick: Unirea Alba Iulia 56% · hit W
Unirea Alba Iulia4–0Progresul Pecica24 Oct · home
Pick: Unirea Alba Iulia 68% · hit W
Cetate Deva1–2Unirea Alba Iulia16 Oct · away
Pick: Cetate Deva 36% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Unirea Sântana and Unirea Alba Iulia meet in Liga III - Serie 7 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Unirea Sântana win 28.8%, draw 27.9%, Unirea Alba Iulia win 43.3%. The pick is Unirea Alba Iulia win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.8%. Both teams to score: 48.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.