Città di Varese vs Sant'Angelo
Match result probability Model pick: Città di Varese win
Città di Varese winPick
48.1%
Draw
25.4%
Sant'Angelo win
26.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes50.9%
No49.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.549.5%
Under 2.550.5%
How much we know
Città di Varese history51 matches
Sant'Angelo history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Città di Varese
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Città di Varese are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Città di Varese are rated 87 Elo points higher
Elo 1,544 against 1,457. On rating alone Città di Varese would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.
-
Città di Varese score more
1.24 goals a game over 51 matches for Città di Varese, against 1.06 over 49 for Sant'Angelo.
-
Città di Varese concede fewer
Città di Varese concede 1.27 a game, Sant'Angelo 1.49.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
45% of Città di Varese matches, against 43% for Sant'Angelo. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sant'Angelo@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1544.2
ELO
1457.0
51
ELO · Matches
49
1544.2
Current Team ELO
1457.0
1457.0
Current Opponent ELO
1544.2
87.24
Current ELO Difference
-87.24
0.62
Expected score
0.38
51
History Matches
49
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.04
52.97
Overperformance
47.11
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
2.20
Goals for per game
1.20
2.40
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.49
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.14
Overall performance9 signals 90
51
Matches
49
1.53
PPG
1.04
43.1%
Win rate
24.5%
23.5%
Draw rate
30.6%
33.3%
Loss rate
44.9%
68.6%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
45.1%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
25.5%
Over 3.5 rate
22.4%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
24
1.80
PPG
0.71
52.0%
Win rate
12.5%
24.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
24.0%
Loss rate
54.2%
64.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
44.0%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.8%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
25
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.24
Goals for per game
1.06
76.5%
Scoring rate
69.4%
51.0%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.32
Goals for per game
0.83
84.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
48.0%
BTTS rate
58.3%
51
History Matches
49
1.24
Goals Mean
1.06
1.00
Goals Std
0.93
76.5%
Scored 1+ rate
69.4%
31.4%
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
13.7%
Scored 3+ rate
6.1%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
0.83
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.27
Goals against per game
1.49
66.7%
Conceding rate
79.6%
0.96
Goals against per game
1.67
56.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
51
History Matches
49
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.49
1.21
Conceded Std
1.13
39.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
49.0%
15.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.2%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
51
History Matches
49
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
1.44
Goal Difference Std
1.56
2.66
Stability score
2.93
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
51
Eligible Matches
49
13
Lead Matches
13
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
61.5%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.72
16
Trailing Matches
17
31.3%
Non-loss rate
5.9%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
80.94
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
38
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.74
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.88
12
Long Rest History Matches
7
0.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.14
0.24
Portability PPG Range
0.29
80.46
Portability Score
77.52
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
51
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO87.24
PPG0.49
GF0.17
GA-0.22
PPG1.09
PPG0.60
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate12.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate27.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.17
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate7.1%
Scored 2+ rate2.8%
Scored 3+ rate7.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.49
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.71
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.22
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate12.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate3.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.71
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.40
History Matches2
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score-0.26
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.19
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate38.5%
Lead Points Retention0.28
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate25.4%
Trailing Win Rate6.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.05
Portability Score2.94
Rest days-108.1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.86
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.25
Current Team ELO87.24
Current Opponent ELO-87.24
Current ELO Difference174.5
Expected score0.25
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Città di Varese
L
Varesina3–1Città di Varese1 Nov · away
Pick: Varesina 42% · hit D
Città di Varese0–0Solbiatese25 Oct · home
Pick: Città di Varese 66% · missed W
Arconatese1–5Città di Varese18 Oct · away
Pick: Città di Varese 46% · hit L
Città di Varese2–5Pro Patria7 Oct · home
Pick: Città di Varese 41% · missed L
Crema3–2Città di Varese4 Oct · away
Pick: Città di Varese 40% · missed Sant'Angelo
L
Sant'Angelo0–2Lentigione1 Nov · home
Pick: Lentigione 44% · hit L
Sant'Angelo0–1Sanremese28 Oct · home
Pick: Sant'Angelo 43% · missed W
Pro Sesto1–2Sant'Angelo25 Oct · away
Pick: Pro Sesto 41% · missed W
Sant'Angelo2–0Coriano18 Oct · home
Pick: Sant'Angelo 47% · hit W
Pavia1–3Sant'Angelo7 Oct · away
Pick: Sant'Angelo 36% · hit About this match
Città di Varese and Sant'Angelo meet in Serie D - Girone D on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Città di Varese win 48.1%, draw 25.4%, Sant'Angelo win 26.5%. The pick is Città di Varese win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.5%. Both teams to score: 50.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.