ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Spain Group 4 - 10 2026

Ciudad de Lucena vs Badajoz

Ciudad de Lucena Home · Elo 1,630
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Badajoz Away · Elo 1,653
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Badajoz win
Ciudad de Lucena win
28.7%
Draw
28.0%
Badajoz winPick
43.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.5%
No53.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.5%
Under 2.557.5%

How much we know

Ciudad de Lucena history53 matches
Badajoz history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 3 d 10 h ahead
    4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Badajoz are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,630 against 1,653. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.62 goals a game over 53 matches for Ciudad de Lucena, against 1.64 over 64 for Badajoz.

  • Defences are close

    Ciudad de Lucena concede 0.75 a game, Badajoz 0.72.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Ciudad de Lucena matches, against 41% for Badajoz. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ciudad de Lucena
Badajoz
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1629.6
ELO
1652.9
53
ELO · Matches
64
1629.6
Current Team ELO
1652.9
1652.9
Current Opponent ELO
1629.6
-23.31
Current ELO Difference
23.31
0.47
Expected score
0.53
53
History Matches
64
0.12
Residual Mean
0.11
58.37
Overperformance
58.50
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.20
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
0.40
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
2.30
2.60
Goals for per game
2.20
0.80
Goals against per game
0.40
80.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.40
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.49
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
64
1.94
PPG
1.92
58.5%
Win rate
56.3%
18.9%
Draw rate
23.4%
22.6%
Loss rate
20.3%
62.3%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
45.3%
Over 2.5 rate
40.6%
22.6%
Over 3.5 rate
17.2%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
34
2.52
PPG
1.71
80.0%
Win rate
50.0%
12.0%
Draw rate
20.6%
8.0%
Loss rate
29.4%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
67.6%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
38.2%
24.0%
Over 3.5 rate
14.7%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
25
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.62
Goals for per game
1.64
75.5%
Scoring rate
79.7%
30.2%
BTTS rate
39.1%
2.16
Goals for per game
1.53
88.0%
Scoring rate
73.5%
24.0%
BTTS rate
35.3%
53
History Matches
64
1.62
Goals Mean
1.64
1.42
Goals Std
1.35
75.5%
Scored 1+ rate
79.7%
45.3%
Scored 2+ rate
48.4%
24.5%
Scored 3+ rate
20.3%
2.16
Venue Goals Mean
1.53
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.75
Goals against per game
0.72
41.5%
Conceding rate
51.6%
0.56
Goals against per game
0.74
28.0%
Conceding rate
52.9%
53
History Matches
64
0.75
Conceded Mean
0.72
1.18
Conceded Std
0.87
18.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
14.1%
9.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.7%
0.56
Venue Conceded Mean
0.74
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
58.5%
Clean-sheet rate
48.4%
24.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.3%
72.0%
Clean-sheet rate
47.1%
12.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
58.5%
Clean-sheet rate
48.4%
24.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.3%
72.0%
Clean-sheet rate
47.1%
12.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
58.5%
Clean-sheet rate
48.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
64
0.88
Result entropy
0.90
1.98
Goal Difference Std
1.62
12.19
Stability score
10.12
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
64
19
Lead Matches
25
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
92.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.93
9
Trailing Matches
11
22.2%
Non-loss rate
54.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
27.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
181.3
Rest days
140.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
29
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.76
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.95
23
Long Rest History Matches
26
2.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.92
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.23
0.39
Portability PPG Range
0.58
73.63
Portability Score
68.87
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-23.31
PPG0.02
GF-0.02
GA0.04
PPG0.81
PPG0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate10.1%
Failed-to-score rate4.2%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate24.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-11
Goals Mean-0.02
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate4.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.63
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.03
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std0.31
Clean-sheet rate10.1%
Conceded 2+ rate4.8%
Conceded 3+ rate4.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.49
History Matches-11
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.36
Stability score2.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.15
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.55
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate8.0%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.32
Trailing Win Rate-0.27
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.19
Portability Score4.76
Rest days41.31
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.29
Current Team ELO-23.31
Current Opponent ELO23.31
Current ELO Difference-46.62
Expected score-0.07
History Matches-11
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ciudad de Lucena

W
Ciudad de Lucena2–1Sanluqueño1 Nov · home
Pick: Ciudad de Lucena 46% · hit
L
Ciudad de Lucena0–1Rayo Majadahonda27 Oct · home
Pick: Rayo Majadahonda 35% · hit
D
Estepona2–2Ciudad de Lucena24 Oct · away
Pick: Estepona 38% · missed
W
Xerez0–1Ciudad de Lucena18 Oct · away
Pick: Xerez 37% · missed
W
Ciudad de Lucena1–0Puente Genil4 Oct · home
Pick: Ciudad de Lucena 44% · hit

Badajoz

D
Badajoz1–1Linares Deportivo1 Nov · home
Pick: Badajoz 55% · missed
D
Puente Genil0–0Badajoz25 Oct · away
Pick: Badajoz 46% · missed
W
Badajoz1–0Sanluqueño18 Oct · home
Pick: Badajoz 60% · hit
D
Sevilla Atletico2–2Badajoz4 Oct · away
Pick: Badajoz 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ciudad de Lucena and Badajoz meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC: Ciudad de Lucena win 28.7%, draw 28.0%, Badajoz win 43.3%. The pick is Badajoz win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.5%. Both teams to score: 46.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.