ScoreProb
Ligue 2 France Round 12 2026

Clermont Foot vs Rodez

Clermont Foot Home · Elo 1,456
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rodez Away · Elo 1,600
Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont-Ferrand Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rodez win
Clermont Foot win
25.5%
Draw
25.0%
Rodez winPick
49.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.9%
No46.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.5%
Under 2.550.5%

How much we know

Clermont Foot history61 matches
Rodez history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Rodez are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rodez are rated 144 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,600 against 1,456. On rating alone Rodez would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Rodez score more

    1.10 goals a game over 61 matches for Clermont Foot, against 1.60 over 62 for Rodez.

  • Defences are close

    Clermont Foot concede 1.33 a game, Rodez 1.31.

  • Rodez games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Clermont Foot matches, against 53% for Rodez. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Clermont Foot
Rodez
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1456.0
ELO
1600.5
61
ELO · Matches
62
1456.0
Current Team ELO
1600.5
1600.5
Current Opponent ELO
1456.0
-144.4
Current ELO Difference
144.4
0.30
Expected score
0.70
61
History Matches
62
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.07
48.45
Overperformance
55.21
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
2.20
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.10
Goals for per game
2.50
0.80
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.75
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
62
1.05
PPG
1.56
23.0%
Win rate
40.3%
36.1%
Draw rate
35.5%
41.0%
Loss rate
24.2%
67.2%
Over 1.5 rate
82.3%
44.3%
Over 2.5 rate
53.2%
26.2%
Over 3.5 rate
29.0%
1.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
35
1.17
PPG
1.34
25.7%
Win rate
34.3%
40.0%
Draw rate
31.4%
34.3%
Loss rate
34.3%
62.9%
Over 1.5 rate
82.9%
34.3%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
31.4%
1.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
35
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.10
Goals for per game
1.60
70.5%
Scoring rate
82.3%
62.3%
BTTS rate
72.6%
1.06
Goals for per game
1.51
65.7%
Scoring rate
77.1%
60.0%
BTTS rate
68.6%
0.67
Goals for per game
2.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
61
History Matches
62
1.10
Goals Mean
1.60
0.99
Goals Std
1.31
70.5%
Scored 1+ rate
82.3%
27.9%
Scored 2+ rate
41.9%
8.2%
Scored 3+ rate
21.0%
1.06
Venue Goals Mean
1.51
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.31
83.6%
Conceding rate
83.9%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.46
82.9%
Conceding rate
82.9%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
62
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.31
0.97
Conceded Std
0.93
32.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.9%
13.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.7%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
1.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
29.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.7%
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
34.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
16.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
29.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.7%
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
34.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
16.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
62
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.21
Goal Difference Std
1.47
2.50
Stability score
1.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
62
11
Lead Matches
16
36.4%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.52
Lead Points Retention
0.81
17
Trailing Matches
16
35.3%
Non-loss rate
56.3%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
37.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.41
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
76.29
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.25
37
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.05
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.63
20
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.76
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.67
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
66.7%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.67
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.34
Portability PPG Std
0.45
0.93
Portability PPG Range
1.00
59.43
Portability Score
52.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-144.4
PPG-0.52
GF-0.50
GA0.02
PPG-1.33
PPG-0.17
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate0.3%
Failed-to-score rate11.8%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate11.4%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.50
Goals Std-0.33
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.61
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.02
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate0.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate3.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.23
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.27
Stability score0.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.45
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.39
Lead Points Retention-0.30
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate-0.32
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.07
Portability Score7.06
Rest days0.75
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.08
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.57
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.71
Current Team ELO-144.4
Current Opponent ELO144.4
Current ELO Difference-288.9
Expected score-0.39
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Clermont Foot

D
Nantes1–1Clermont Foot30 Oct · away
Pick: Clermont Foot 37% · missed
L
Clermont Foot0–2Guingamp23 Oct · home
Pick: Guingamp 38% · hit
D
Laval3–3Clermont Foot16 Oct · away
Pick: Laval 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Rodez

W
Rodez1–0Dunkerque30 Oct · home
Pick: Rodez 49% · hit
W
Dijon1–2Rodez24 Oct · away
Pick: Rodez 43% · hit
L
Rodez0–3Montpellier19 Oct · home
Pick: Rodez 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Clermont Foot and Rodez meet in Ligue 2 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont-Ferrand. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Clermont Foot win 25.5%, draw 25.0%, Rodez win 49.5%. The pick is Rodez win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.5%. Both teams to score: 53.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.