ScoreProb
Ligue 2 France Round 12 2026

Grenoble vs Reims

Grenoble Home · Elo 1,462
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Reims Away · Elo 1,584
Stade des Alpes, Grenoble Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Reims win
Grenoble win
26.8%
Draw
24.3%
Reims winPick
49.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.2%
No49.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.0%
Under 2.549.0%

How much we know

Grenoble history62 matches
Reims history73 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Reims are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Reims are rated 122 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,584 against 1,462. On rating alone Reims would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Reims score more

    1.10 goals a game over 62 matches for Grenoble, against 1.38 over 73 for Reims.

  • Reims concede fewer

    Grenoble concede 1.35 a game, Reims 1.05.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Grenoble matches, against 45% for Reims. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Grenoble
Reims
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1461.9
ELO
1583.5
62
ELO · Matches
73
1461.9
Current Team ELO
1583.5
1583.5
Current Opponent ELO
1461.9
-121.6
Current ELO Difference
121.6
0.33
Expected score
0.67
62
History Matches
73
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.05
47.94
Overperformance
53.60
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
2.20
1.00
Goals for per game
2.20
2.40
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.90
1.10
Goals for per game
2.30
1.80
Goals against per game
1.30
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.51
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.55
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.34
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
73
1.15
PPG
1.49
25.8%
Win rate
38.4%
37.1%
Draw rate
34.2%
37.1%
Loss rate
27.4%
66.1%
Over 1.5 rate
64.4%
46.8%
Over 2.5 rate
45.2%
27.4%
Over 3.5 rate
26.0%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
41
1.34
PPG
1.32
28.1%
Win rate
29.3%
50.0%
Draw rate
43.9%
21.9%
Loss rate
26.8%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
65.9%
40.6%
Over 2.5 rate
43.9%
18.8%
Over 3.5 rate
24.4%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
32
History Matches
41
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.10
Goals for per game
1.38
64.5%
Scoring rate
67.1%
54.8%
BTTS rate
46.6%
0.97
Goals for per game
1.22
62.5%
Scoring rate
63.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
48.8%
0.67
Goals for per game
2.00
33.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
62
History Matches
73
1.10
Goals Mean
1.38
1.15
Goals Std
1.42
64.5%
Scored 1+ rate
67.1%
27.4%
Scored 2+ rate
37.0%
11.3%
Scored 3+ rate
19.2%
0.97
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.35
Goals against per game
1.05
74.2%
Conceding rate
63.0%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.10
62.5%
Conceding rate
65.9%
2.67
Goals against per game
1.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
62
History Matches
73
1.35
Conceded Mean
1.05
1.17
Conceded Std
1.05
38.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.1%
16.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.6%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.10
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
35.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.9%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.1%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
36.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
35.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.9%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.1%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
36.6%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
73
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.49
Goal Difference Std
1.64
1.21
Stability score
0.85
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
73
16
Lead Matches
20
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.92
14
Trailing Matches
21
28.6%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
4.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
73
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
74.01
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
6
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.17
34
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.49
24
Long Rest History Matches
25
0.79
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.64
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.33
PPG
1.67
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
66.7%
66.7%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.33
Current Competition PPG
1.67
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
6
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.44
2.00
Portability PPG Range
1.40
45.25
Portability Score
53.15
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
73
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-121.6
PPG-0.35
GF-0.29
GA0.30
PPG-1.33
PPG0.03
PPG-1.80
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate2.6%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Failed-to-score rate0.9%
History Matches-11
Goals Mean-0.29
Goals Std-0.27
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.04
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean0.30
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate8.6%
Conceded 3+ rate6.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.53
History Matches-11
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.15
Stability score0.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.56
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.28
Lead Points Retention-0.21
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate2.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.41
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.60
Portability Score-7.90
Rest days2.03
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.83
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.85
Current Team ELO-121.6
Current Opponent ELO121.6
Current ELO Difference-243.2
Expected score-0.34
History Matches-11
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.66
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Grenoble

L
Grenoble1–3Dijon30 Oct · home
Pick: Dijon 43% · hit
L
PAU2–1Grenoble23 Oct · away
Pick: PAU 48% · hit
L
Grenoble0–2Boulogne16 Oct · home
Pick: Boulogne 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Reims

W
Reims2–0Sochaux2 Nov · home
Pick: Reims 53% · hit
D
Boulogne1–1Reims26 Oct · away
Pick: Reims 45% · missed
W
Reims4–2Dijon16 Oct · home
Pick: Reims 52% · hit
W
RED Star FC 931–4Reims29 Aug · away
Pick: RED Star FC 93 42% · missed
W
Reims3–1Annecy24 Aug · home
Pick: Reims 46% · hit

About this match

Grenoble and Reims meet in Ligue 2 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Stade des Alpes, Grenoble. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Grenoble win 26.8%, draw 24.3%, Reims win 49.0%. The pick is Reims win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.0%. Both teams to score: 50.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.