ScoreProb
Primera División Peru Round 16 2026

Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima

Club Deportivo Los Chankas Home · Elo 1,547
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Alianza Lima Away · Elo 1,615
Estadio Municipal Los Chankas, Andahuaylas Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Alianza Lima win
Club Deportivo Los Chankas win
24.4%
Draw
27.5%
Alianza Lima winPick
48.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.2%
No45.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.0%
Under 2.547.0%

How much we know

Club Deportivo Los Chankas history59 matches
Alianza Lima history76 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Alianza Lima are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Alianza Lima are rated 68 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,615 against 1,547. On rating alone Alianza Lima would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Alianza Lima score more

    1.29 goals a game over 59 matches for Club Deportivo Los Chankas, against 1.57 over 76 for Alianza Lima.

  • Alianza Lima concede fewer

    Club Deportivo Los Chankas concede 1.44 a game, Alianza Lima 0.89.

  • Club Deportivo Los Chankas games more often go over 2.5 goals

    58% of Club Deportivo Los Chankas matches, against 47% for Alianza Lima. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Alianza Lima
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1546.8
ELO
1614.6
59
ELO · Matches
76
1546.8
Current Team ELO
1614.6
1614.6
Current Opponent ELO
1546.8
-67.87
Current ELO Difference
67.87
0.40
Expected score
0.60
59
History Matches
76
0.04
Residual Mean
0.08
53.00
Overperformance
56.13
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
2.40
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.30
1.30
Goals for per game
1.20
1.70
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
76
1.58
PPG
1.89
45.8%
Win rate
53.9%
20.3%
Draw rate
27.6%
33.9%
Loss rate
18.4%
74.6%
Over 1.5 rate
69.7%
57.6%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
28.8%
Over 3.5 rate
21.1%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
36
2.17
PPG
1.61
66.7%
Win rate
41.7%
16.7%
Draw rate
36.1%
16.7%
Loss rate
22.2%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
63.9%
63.3%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.01
30
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.29
Goals for per game
1.57
76.3%
Scoring rate
82.9%
57.6%
BTTS rate
52.6%
1.77
Goals for per game
1.08
90.0%
Scoring rate
83.3%
63.3%
BTTS rate
61.1%
1.35
Goals for per game
1.76
78.3%
Scoring rate
90.5%
52.2%
BTTS rate
52.4%
59
History Matches
76
1.29
Goals Mean
1.57
1.03
Goals Std
1.30
76.3%
Scored 1+ rate
82.9%
33.9%
Scored 2+ rate
43.4%
18.6%
Scored 3+ rate
19.7%
1.77
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.44
Goals against per game
0.89
78.0%
Conceding rate
61.8%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.00
70.0%
Conceding rate
69.4%
1.43
Goals against per game
0.62
73.9%
Conceding rate
57.1%
59
History Matches
76
1.44
Conceded Mean
0.89
1.20
Conceded Std
0.91
40.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
19.7%
18.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.6%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.2%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
9.5%
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.2%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
76
0.95
Result entropy
0.91
1.69
Goal Difference Std
1.59
4.57
Stability score
8.98
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
76
20
Lead Matches
26
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.88
17
Trailing Matches
13
29.4%
Non-loss rate
46.2%
17.6%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
76
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.77
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
24
Normal Rest History Matches
47
1.71
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
34
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.72
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
21
1.78
PPG
2.29
52.2%
Win rate
66.7%
21.7%
Draw rate
28.6%
26.1%
Loss rate
4.8%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
61.9%
52.2%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
34.8%
Over 3.5 rate
19.0%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
23
Current Competition Matches
21
1.78
Current Competition PPG
2.29
-0.09
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.14
3
Competition Season Count
8
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.68
0.61
Portability PPG Range
1.95
66.60
Portability Score
42.35
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
76
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-67.87
PPG-0.32
GF-0.28
GA0.55
PPG-0.50
PPG0.56
PPG-1.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate6.6%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-17
Goals Mean-0.28
Goals Std-0.28
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.68
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.13
History Matches-17
Conceded Mean0.55
Conceded Std0.29
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate20.9%
Conceded 3+ rate12.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.37
History Matches-17
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score-4.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.69
Eligible Matches-17
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-17
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.37
Current Competition Matches2
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.23
Competition Season Count-5
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.43
Portability PPG Range-1.35
Portability Score24.26
Rest days-0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches-23
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Current Team ELO-67.87
Current Opponent ELO67.87
Current ELO Difference-135.7
Expected score-0.19
History Matches-17
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

D
UCV Moquegua0–0Club Deportivo Los Chankas1 Nov · away
Pick: UCV Moquegua 44% · missed
L
Deportivo Garcilaso4–1Club Deportivo Los Chankas25 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Garcilaso 53% · hit
W
Club Deportivo Los Chankas2–1ADT16 Oct · home
Pick: Club Deportivo Los Chankas 45% · hit
L
Club Deportivo Los Chankas3–4Juan Pablo II College29 Aug · home
Pick: Club Deportivo Los Chankas 55% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Alianza Lima

W
Alianza Lima3–1Atletico Grau18 Oct · home
Pick: Alianza Lima 65% · hit
L
Alianza Lima0–1Deportivo Garcilaso30 Aug · home
Pick: Alianza Lima 59% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas and Alianza Lima meet in Primera División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Municipal Los Chankas, Andahuaylas. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Club Deportivo Los Chankas win 24.4%, draw 27.5%, Alianza Lima win 48.1%. The pick is Alianza Lima win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.0%. Both teams to score: 54.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.