ScoreProb
Primera División Peru Round 16 2026

Universitario vs UCV Moquegua

Universitario Home · Elo 1,605
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
UCV Moquegua Away · Elo 1,516
Estadio Monumental, Lima Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Universitario win
Universitario winPick
59.3%
Draw
22.9%
UCV Moquegua win
17.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.2%
No51.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.8%
Under 2.551.2%

How much we know

Universitario history64 matches
UCV Moquegua history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 01:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Universitario are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Universitario are rated 89 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,605 against 1,516. On rating alone Universitario would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Universitario score more

    1.48 goals a game over 64 matches for Universitario, against 1.20 over 54 for UCV Moquegua.

  • Universitario concede fewer

    Universitario concede 0.88 a game, UCV Moquegua 1.13.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of Universitario matches, against 48% for UCV Moquegua. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Universitario
UCV Moquegua
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1605.2
ELO
1515.9
64
ELO · Matches
54
1605.2
Current Team ELO
1515.9
1515.9
Current Opponent ELO
1605.2
89.23
Current ELO Difference
-89.23
0.63
Expected score
0.37
64
History Matches
54
0.08
Residual Mean
0.02
56.29
Overperformance
51.28
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
0.60
1.20
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.10
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
54
1.84
PPG
1.46
51.6%
Win rate
38.9%
29.7%
Draw rate
29.6%
18.8%
Loss rate
31.5%
70.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
42.2%
Over 2.5 rate
48.1%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
18.5%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
26
2.12
PPG
1.00
63.6%
Win rate
23.1%
21.2%
Draw rate
30.8%
15.2%
Loss rate
46.2%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
65.4%
51.5%
Over 2.5 rate
34.6%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
11.5%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
33
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.48
Goals for per game
1.20
70.3%
Scoring rate
68.5%
46.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.85
Goals for per game
0.73
72.7%
Scoring rate
57.7%
45.5%
BTTS rate
42.3%
1.58
Goals for per game
0.96
73.7%
Scoring rate
56.5%
57.9%
BTTS rate
43.5%
64
History Matches
54
1.48
Goals Mean
1.20
1.32
Goals Std
1.16
70.3%
Scored 1+ rate
68.5%
45.3%
Scored 2+ rate
35.2%
21.9%
Scored 3+ rate
11.1%
1.85
Venue Goals Mean
0.73
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.88
Goals against per game
1.13
60.9%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.82
Goals against per game
1.31
60.6%
Conceding rate
73.1%
0.95
Goals against per game
1.26
68.4%
Conceding rate
69.6%
64
History Matches
54
0.88
Conceded Mean
1.13
0.89
Conceded Std
1.04
20.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.2%
4.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.4%
0.82
Venue Conceded Mean
1.31
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.5%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
42.3%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
43.5%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.5%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
42.3%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
54
0.92
Result entropy
0.99
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.48
7.52
Stability score
0.64
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
54
24
Lead Matches
13
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
61.5%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.72
10
Trailing Matches
15
30.0%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.08
Rest days
78.40
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
31
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.90
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.48
26
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.77
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
23
1.89
PPG
1.09
52.6%
Win rate
26.1%
31.6%
Draw rate
30.4%
15.8%
Loss rate
43.5%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
65.2%
52.6%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
26.3%
Over 3.5 rate
17.4%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
19
Current Competition Matches
23
1.89
Current Competition PPG
1.09
0.63
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.30
7
Competition Season Count
4
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.31
1.33
Portability PPG Range
0.73
47.23
Portability Score
61.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO89.23
PPG0.38
GF0.28
GA-0.25
PPG0.81
PPG1.12
PPG0.80
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches10
Goals Mean0.28
Goals Std0.16
Scored 1+ rate1.8%
Scored 2+ rate10.1%
Scored 3+ rate10.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.06
History Matches10
Conceded Mean-0.25
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches10
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score6.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.50
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate21.8%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate3.3%
Trailing Win Rate6.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches-4
Current Competition PPG0.81
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.94
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.24
Portability PPG Range0.61
Portability Score-14.19
Rest days-1.31
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.42
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.27
Current Team ELO89.23
Current Opponent ELO-89.23
Current ELO Difference178.5
Expected score0.25
History Matches10
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Universitario

W
Atletico Grau1–3Universitario1 Nov · away
Pick: Universitario 40% · hit
W
Universitario3–0Juan Pablo II College25 Oct · home
Pick: Universitario 71% · hit
W
Alianza Atletico1–4Universitario18 Oct · away
Pick: Universitario 39% · hit
W
UTC Cajamarca2–4Universitario29 Aug · away
Pick: Universitario 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

UCV Moquegua

D
UCV Moquegua0–0Club Deportivo Los Chankas1 Nov · home
Pick: UCV Moquegua 44% · missed
L
UCV Moquegua1–4Alianza Atletico30 Aug · home
Pick: UCV Moquegua 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Universitario and UCV Moquegua meet in Primera División on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 01:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Monumental, Lima. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Universitario win 59.3%, draw 22.9%, UCV Moquegua win 17.8%. The pick is Universitario win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.8%. Both teams to score: 48.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.