ScoreProb
Liga MX U21 Mexico Round 16 2026

Club Leon U21 vs Guadalajara Chivas U21

Club Leon U21 Home · Elo 1,518
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Guadalajara Chivas U21 Away · Elo 1,552
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Club Leon U21 win
Club Leon U21 winPick
40.1%
Draw
28.8%
Guadalajara Chivas U21 win
31.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.1%
No49.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.3%
Under 2.553.7%

How much we know

Club Leon U21 history29 matches
Guadalajara Chivas U21 history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Club Leon U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Guadalajara Chivas U21 are rated 35 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,552 against 1,518. On rating alone Guadalajara Chivas U21 would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.28 goals a game over 29 matches for Club Leon U21, against 1.36 over 36 for Guadalajara Chivas U21.

  • Defences are close

    Club Leon U21 concede 1.10 a game, Guadalajara Chivas U21 1.08.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Club Leon U21 matches, against 39% for Guadalajara Chivas U21. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Club Leon U21
Guadalajara Chivas U21
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1517.7
ELO
1552.3
29
ELO · Matches
36
1517.7
Current Team ELO
1552.3
1552.3
Current Opponent ELO
1517.7
-34.59
Current ELO Difference
34.59
0.45
Expected score
0.55
29
History Matches
36
0.03
Residual Mean
0.07
51.96
Overperformance
54.62
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.50
1.30
Goals for per game
1.00
1.10
Goals against per game
0.60
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.18
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
29
Matches
36
1.55
PPG
1.56
44.8%
Win rate
36.1%
20.7%
Draw rate
47.2%
34.5%
Loss rate
16.7%
62.1%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
44.8%
Over 2.5 rate
38.9%
27.6%
Over 3.5 rate
27.8%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.07
Venue performance10 signals
100
15
Matches
18
2.00
PPG
1.28
60.0%
Win rate
22.2%
20.0%
Draw rate
61.1%
20.0%
Loss rate
16.7%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
55.6%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
22.2%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.75
15
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.28
Goals for per game
1.36
72.4%
Scoring rate
80.6%
48.3%
BTTS rate
61.1%
1.47
Goals for per game
0.94
86.7%
Scoring rate
72.2%
53.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
80.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
29
History Matches
36
1.28
Goals Mean
1.36
1.01
Goals Std
1.11
72.4%
Scored 1+ rate
80.6%
41.4%
Scored 2+ rate
30.6%
13.8%
Scored 3+ rate
19.4%
1.47
Venue Goals Mean
0.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.10
Goals against per game
1.08
72.4%
Conceding rate
69.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.94
66.7%
Conceding rate
61.1%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
29
History Matches
36
1.10
Conceded Mean
1.08
0.96
Conceded Std
0.89
27.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
6.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.6%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
0.94
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
29
History Matches
36
0.96
Result entropy
0.93
1.39
Goal Difference Std
1.07
4.17
Stability score
7.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
29
Eligible Matches
35
5
Lead Matches
11
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.79
8
Trailing Matches
5
25.0%
Non-loss rate
60.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
29
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
0.34
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.00
Rest days
78.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
7
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.86
14
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
11
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.64
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
4
1.60
PPG
1.25
40.0%
Win rate
25.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
0.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.71
5
Current Competition Matches
4
1.60
Current Competition PPG
1.25
0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.03
Portability PPG Std
0.17
0.06
Portability PPG Range
0.34
94.49
Portability Score
74.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
29
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-34.59
PPG0.00
GF-0.09
GA0.02
PPG0.35
PPG0.72
PPG0.40
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate8.1%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-7
Goals Mean-0.09
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate10.8%
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.28
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean0.02
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate1.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.42
History Matches-7
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.32
Stability score-2.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.31
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate7.3%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.35
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.35
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.20
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.29
Portability Score20.07
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.48
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.27
Current Team ELO-34.59
Current Opponent ELO34.59
Current ELO Difference-69.17
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-7
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.66
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Club Leon U21

L
Club Leon U211–4Toluca U2124 Oct · home
Pick: Toluca U21 39% · hit
L
Tigres UANL U213–1Club Leon U2120 Oct · away
Pick: Club Leon U21 42% · missed
D
Club Leon U211–1Club America U2117 Oct · home
Pick: Club Leon U21 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Guadalajara Chivas U21

W
Guadalajara Chivas U212–1Atlante U2131 Oct · home
Pick: Guadalajara Chivas U21 50% · hit
L
Monterrey U214–1Guadalajara Chivas U2124 Oct · away
Pick: Monterrey U21 39% · hit
L
Guadalajara Chivas U212–5Tigres UANL U2117 Oct · home
Pick: Guadalajara Chivas U21 66% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Club Leon U21 and Guadalajara Chivas U21 meet in Liga MX U21 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Club Leon U21 win 40.1%, draw 28.8%, Guadalajara Chivas U21 win 31.1%. The pick is Club Leon U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.3%. Both teams to score: 50.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.