ScoreProb
Liga MX U21 Mexico Round 16 2026

Queretaro U21 vs Puebla U21

Queretaro U21 Home · Elo 1,445
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Puebla U21 Away · Elo 1,483
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Puebla U21 win
Queretaro U21 win
36.3%
Draw
27.4%
Puebla U21 winPick
36.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.6%
No49.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.8%
Under 2.552.2%

How much we know

Queretaro U21 history28 matches
Puebla U21 history27 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Puebla U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Puebla U21 are rated 39 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,483 against 1,445. On rating alone Puebla U21 would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Queretaro U21 score more

    1.18 goals a game over 28 matches for Queretaro U21, against 0.93 over 27 for Puebla U21.

  • Puebla U21 concede fewer

    Queretaro U21 concede 1.54 a game, Puebla U21 1.30.

  • Queretaro U21 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    57% of Queretaro U21 matches, against 33% for Puebla U21. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Queretaro U21
Puebla U21
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1444.6
ELO
1483.2
28
ELO · Matches
27
1444.6
Current Team ELO
1483.2
1483.2
Current Opponent ELO
1444.6
-38.53
Current ELO Difference
38.53
0.44
Expected score
0.56
28
History Matches
27
-0.09
Residual Mean
-0.03
44.67
Overperformance
48.51
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.10
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
1.30
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.77
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals
90
28
Matches
27
1.00
PPG
1.04
25.0%
Win rate
18.5%
25.0%
Draw rate
48.1%
50.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
Venue performance10 signals
100
15
Matches
13
1.40
PPG
1.23
40.0%
Win rate
30.8%
20.0%
Draw rate
30.8%
40.0%
Loss rate
38.5%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
38.5%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
15
History Matches
13
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.18
Goals for per game
0.93
60.7%
Scoring rate
59.3%
46.4%
BTTS rate
51.9%
1.27
Goals for per game
1.08
60.0%
Scoring rate
69.2%
40.0%
BTTS rate
53.8%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
40.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
20.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
28
History Matches
27
1.18
Goals Mean
0.93
1.23
Goals Std
0.90
60.7%
Scored 1+ rate
59.3%
35.7%
Scored 2+ rate
29.6%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
3.7%
1.27
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.54
Goals against per game
1.30
75.0%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.47
Goals against per game
1.31
73.3%
Conceding rate
76.9%
1.40
Goals against per game
0.40
80.0%
Conceding rate
40.0%
28
History Matches
27
1.54
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.12
Conceded Std
1.08
57.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
17.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.1%
1.47
Venue Conceded Mean
1.31
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
39.3%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
39.3%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
28
History Matches
27
0.95
Result entropy
0.94
1.76
Goal Difference Std
1.25
5.36
Stability score
6.21
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
28
Eligible Matches
26
9
Lead Matches
3
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
1.00
11
Trailing Matches
8
18.2%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
28
Halftime Coverage Matches
26
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.00
Rest days
78.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
16
Normal Rest History Matches
10
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
8
Long Rest History Matches
13
0.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.31
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
60.0%
80.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.80
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.60
Current Competition PPG
1.80
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.60
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.47
0.49
Portability PPG Range
0.94
67.25
Portability Score
51.64
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
28
Clean History Matches
27
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-38.53
PPG-0.04
GF0.25
GA0.24
PPG-1.20
PPG0.17
PPG-1.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate2.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate3.6%
Failed-to-score rate9.2%
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.25
Goals Std0.33
Scored 1+ rate1.5%
Scored 2+ rate6.1%
Scored 3+ rate10.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.66
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.24
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate2.8%
Conceded 2+ rate23.8%
Conceded 3+ rate6.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.56
History Matches1
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.51
Stability score-0.85
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.74
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.22
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.22
Portability PPG Range-0.45
Portability Score15.61
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.00
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.68
Current Team ELO-38.53
Current Opponent ELO38.53
Current ELO Difference-77.05
Expected score-0.11
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-3.84
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Queretaro U21

L
Juarez U213–1Queretaro U2130 Oct · away
Pick: Juarez U21 51% · hit
W
Queretaro U215–0Cruz Azul U2125 Oct · home
Pick: Cruz Azul U21 36% · missed
L
Atl. San Luis U213–2Queretaro U2120 Oct · away
Pick: Atl. San Luis U21 52% · hit
L
Santos Laguna U213–1Queretaro U2117 Oct · away
Pick: Santos Laguna U21 47% · hit
L
Atlas U212–0Queretaro U2129 Aug · away
Pick: Atlas U21 49% · hit

Puebla U21

W
Atlas U211–2Puebla U2125 Oct · away
Pick: Atlas U21 38% · missed
D
Club Tijuana U210–0Puebla U2116 Oct · away
Pick: Club Tijuana U21 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Queretaro U21 and Puebla U21 meet in Liga MX U21 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Queretaro U21 win 36.3%, draw 27.4%, Puebla U21 win 36.3%. The pick is Puebla U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.8%. Both teams to score: 50.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.