ScoreProb
Liga MX Mexico Round 16 2026

Club Queretaro vs Puebla

Club Queretaro Home · Elo 1,479
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Puebla Away · Elo 1,436
Estadio La Corregidora, Santiago Querétaro Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Club Queretaro win
Club Queretaro winPick
38.1%
Draw
27.6%
Puebla win
34.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.3%
No47.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.0%
Under 2.548.0%

How much we know

Club Queretaro history43 matches
Puebla history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 15 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 00:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Club Queretaro are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Club Queretaro are rated 43 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,479 against 1,436. On rating alone Club Queretaro would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Puebla score more

    0.93 goals a game over 43 matches for Club Queretaro, against 1.15 over 55 for Puebla.

  • Club Queretaro concede fewer

    Club Queretaro concede 1.42 a game, Puebla 1.96.

  • Puebla games more often go over 2.5 goals

    40% of Club Queretaro matches, against 64% for Puebla. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Club Queretaro
Puebla
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1479.0
ELO
1436.1
43
ELO · Matches
55
1479.0
Current Team ELO
1436.1
1436.1
Current Opponent ELO
1479.0
42.98
Current ELO Difference
-42.98
0.56
Expected score
0.44
43
History Matches
55
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.05
47.52
Overperformance
46.16
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.20
0.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.60
Goals against per game
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.30
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
55
1.07
PPG
0.93
27.9%
Win rate
25.5%
23.3%
Draw rate
16.4%
48.8%
Loss rate
58.2%
69.8%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
39.5%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
18.6%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
27
1.28
PPG
0.78
33.3%
Win rate
22.2%
27.8%
Draw rate
11.1%
38.9%
Loss rate
66.7%
72.2%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
38.9%
Over 2.5 rate
70.4%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
18
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.93
Goals for per game
1.15
65.1%
Scoring rate
61.8%
48.8%
BTTS rate
52.7%
1.17
Goals for per game
1.15
83.3%
Scoring rate
63.0%
61.1%
BTTS rate
55.6%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
60.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
43
History Matches
55
0.93
Goals Mean
1.15
0.85
Goals Std
1.18
65.1%
Scored 1+ rate
61.8%
23.3%
Scored 2+ rate
32.7%
4.7%
Scored 3+ rate
14.5%
1.17
Venue Goals Mean
1.15
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.42
Goals against per game
1.96
81.4%
Conceding rate
81.8%
1.22
Goals against per game
2.15
77.8%
Conceding rate
85.2%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
43
History Matches
55
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.96
1.13
Conceded Std
1.57
39.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.4%
11.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.7%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
2.15
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
34.9%
Failed-to-score rate
38.2%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
34.9%
Failed-to-score rate
38.2%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
55
0.95
Result entropy
0.87
1.52
Goal Difference Std
1.90
4.84
Stability score
12.65
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
52
9
Lead Matches
13
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
61.5%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.64
17
Trailing Matches
22
11.8%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
0.41
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.15
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.87
Rest days
77.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
7
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.14
22
Normal Rest History Matches
26
0.86
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.04
17
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.10
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
0.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.80
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.40
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.40
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.90
1.40
Portability PPG Range
2.33
48.56
Portability Score
35.71
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO42.98
PPG0.14
GF-0.22
GA-0.55
PPG-0.60
PPG0.50
PPG-0.80
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate0.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate7.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-12
Goals Mean-0.22
Goals Std-0.34
Scored 1+ rate3.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.17
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean-0.55
Conceded Std-0.45
Clean-sheet rate0.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.21
Venue Conceded Mean-0.93
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.30
History Matches-12
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.38
Stability score-7.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.09
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate16.2%
Lead Points Retention0.21
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate2.7%
Trailing Win Rate11.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.47
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.40
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.37
Portability PPG Range-0.93
Portability Score12.85
Rest days0.91
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.43
Current Team ELO42.98
Current Opponent ELO-42.98
Current ELO Difference85.96
Expected score0.12
History Matches-12
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Club Queretaro

L
FC Juarez3–1Club Queretaro31 Oct · away
Pick: Club Queretaro 39% · missed
L
Club Queretaro1–3Cruz Azul26 Oct · home
Pick: Cruz Azul 41% · hit
L
Atletico San Luis2–1Club Queretaro21 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico San Luis 42% · hit
L
Santos Laguna5–0Club Queretaro17 Oct · away
Pick: Club Queretaro 47% · missed
W
Atlas1–3Club Queretaro29 Aug · away
Pick: Atlas 52% · missed

Puebla

L
Puebla1–2U.N.A.M. - Pumas31 Oct · home
Pick: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 39% · hit
L
Atlas4–3Puebla25 Oct · away
Pick: Atlas 48% · hit
L
Puebla1–4Monterrey22 Oct · home
Pick: Monterrey 47% · hit
L
Club America2–0Puebla30 Aug · away
Pick: Club America 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Club Queretaro and Puebla meet in Liga MX on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 00:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio La Corregidora, Santiago Querétaro. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Club Queretaro win 38.1%, draw 27.6%, Puebla win 34.3%. The pick is Club Queretaro win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.0%. Both teams to score: 52.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.