ScoreProb
Liga MX Mexico Round 16 2026

Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas

Leon Home · Elo 1,532
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Guadalajara Chivas Away · Elo 1,587
Estadio León, Leon Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Leon win
Leon winPick
40.2%
Draw
24.7%
Guadalajara Chivas win
35.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.5%
No44.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.4%
Under 2.545.6%

How much we know

Leon history63 matches
Guadalajara Chivas history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 17 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 02:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Leon are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Guadalajara Chivas are rated 55 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,587 against 1,532. On rating alone Guadalajara Chivas would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.38 goals a game over 63 matches for Leon, against 1.45 over 66 for Guadalajara Chivas.

  • Guadalajara Chivas concede fewer

    Leon concede 1.65 a game, Guadalajara Chivas 1.15.

  • Leon games more often go over 2.5 goals

    62% of Leon matches, against 53% for Guadalajara Chivas. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Leon
Guadalajara Chivas
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1532.3
ELO
1587.3
63
ELO · Matches
66
1532.3
Current Team ELO
1587.3
1587.3
Current Opponent ELO
1532.3
-54.97
Current ELO Difference
54.97
0.42
Expected score
0.58
63
History Matches
66
0.02
Residual Mean
0.06
51.78
Overperformance
54.42
0.38
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
2.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
1.50
2.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.85
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.18
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
66
1.33
PPG
1.61
38.1%
Win rate
43.9%
19.0%
Draw rate
28.8%
42.9%
Loss rate
27.3%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
69.7%
61.9%
Over 2.5 rate
53.0%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
30.3%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
36
1.47
PPG
1.42
43.3%
Win rate
36.1%
16.7%
Draw rate
33.3%
40.0%
Loss rate
30.6%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
30
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.38
Goals for per game
1.45
79.4%
Scoring rate
75.8%
65.1%
BTTS rate
54.5%
1.70
Goals for per game
1.33
86.7%
Scoring rate
80.6%
70.0%
BTTS rate
69.4%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
63
History Matches
66
1.38
Goals Mean
1.45
1.15
Goals Std
1.28
79.4%
Scored 1+ rate
75.8%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
40.9%
7.9%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.70
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.65
Goals against per game
1.15
81.0%
Conceding rate
68.2%
1.63
Goals against per game
1.36
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
63
History Matches
66
1.65
Conceded Mean
1.15
1.29
Conceded Std
1.06
49.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.8%
20.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.1%
1.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.36
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
66
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
1.61
Goal Difference Std
1.68
4.73
Stability score
2.23
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
66
15
Lead Matches
19
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
89.5%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.91
17
Trailing Matches
17
23.5%
Non-loss rate
41.2%
17.6%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.04
Rest days
78.12
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
17
Short Rest History Matches
13
1.18
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.23
24
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.63
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.61
21
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
20.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.80
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.60
6
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.72
Portability PPG Std
0.27
1.97
Portability PPG Range
0.79
40.96
Portability Score
65.22
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-54.97
PPG-0.27
GF-0.07
GA0.50
PPG-0.20
PPG0.05
PPG1.00
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate0.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.07
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate3.6%
Scored 2+ rate1.9%
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean0.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.45
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.50
Conceded Std0.22
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate17.4%
Conceded 3+ rate8.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.51
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score2.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.14
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.16
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate5.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.20
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.45
Portability PPG Range1.18
Portability Score-24.25
Rest days0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.01
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.81
Current Team ELO-54.97
Current Opponent ELO54.97
Current ELO Difference-109.9
Expected score-0.16
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.64
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.40

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Leon

L
Cruz Azul2–1Leon2 Nov · away
Pick: Cruz Azul 50% · hit
D
Leon1–1Toluca24 Oct · home
Pick: Toluca 40% · missed
W
Tigres UANL0–2Leon21 Oct · away
Pick: Tigres UANL 45% · missed
L
Leon3–5Club America18 Oct · home
Pick: Club America 47% · hit
W
Leon2–1FC Juarez28 Sep · home
Pick: Leon 58% · hit

Guadalajara Chivas

W
Guadalajara Chivas4–2Atlante FC1 Nov · home
Pick: Guadalajara Chivas 59% · hit
W
Guadalajara Chivas1–0Necaxa21 Oct · home
Pick: Guadalajara Chivas 56% · hit
D
Guadalajara Chivas1–1Tigres UANL17 Oct · home
Pick: Guadalajara Chivas 47% · missed
D
CF Pachuca1–1Guadalajara Chivas29 Aug · away
Pick: CF Pachuca 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Leon and Guadalajara Chivas meet in Liga MX on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 02:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio León, Leon. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Leon win 40.2%, draw 24.7%, Guadalajara Chivas win 35.0%. The pick is Leon win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.4%. Both teams to score: 55.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.