ScoreProb
Liga Nacional Guatemala Round 19 2026

Cobán Imperial vs Xelajú

Cobán Imperial Home · Elo 1,495
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Xelajú Away · Elo 1,528
Estadio Verapaz Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Xelajú win
Cobán Imperial win
35.9%
Draw
27.2%
Xelajú winPick
37.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.1%
No48.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.3%
Under 2.551.7%

How much we know

Cobán Imperial history69 matches
Xelajú history85 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Xelajú are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Xelajú are rated 33 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,528 against 1,495. On rating alone Xelajú would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Xelajú score more

    1.17 goals a game over 69 matches for Cobán Imperial, against 1.38 over 85 for Xelajú.

  • Defences are close

    Cobán Imperial concede 1.19 a game, Xelajú 1.15.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of Cobán Imperial matches, against 44% for Xelajú. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cobán Imperial
Xelajú
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1494.7
ELO
1527.7
69
ELO · Matches
85
1494.7
Current Team ELO
1527.7
1527.7
Current Opponent ELO
1494.7
-32.95
Current ELO Difference
32.95
0.45
Expected score
0.55
69
History Matches
85
0.00
Residual Mean
0.02
49.81
Overperformance
51.45
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.00
1.10
Goals for per game
1.30
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.54
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.86
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
85
1.39
PPG
1.36
39.1%
Win rate
36.5%
21.7%
Draw rate
27.1%
39.1%
Loss rate
36.5%
72.5%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
42.0%
Over 2.5 rate
43.5%
23.2%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
42
2.06
PPG
0.55
60.0%
Win rate
9.5%
25.7%
Draw rate
26.2%
14.3%
Loss rate
64.3%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
61.9%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
38.1%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.16
35
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.17
Goals for per game
1.38
63.8%
Scoring rate
71.8%
43.5%
BTTS rate
49.4%
1.60
Goals for per game
0.74
71.4%
Scoring rate
54.8%
42.9%
BTTS rate
47.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.25
60.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
69
History Matches
85
1.17
Goals Mean
1.38
1.14
Goals Std
1.32
63.8%
Scored 1+ rate
71.8%
36.2%
Scored 2+ rate
37.6%
14.5%
Scored 3+ rate
17.6%
1.60
Venue Goals Mean
0.74
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.19
Goals against per game
1.15
69.6%
Conceding rate
70.6%
0.69
Goals against per game
1.55
57.1%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.80
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
69
History Matches
85
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.15
1.07
Conceded Std
1.05
34.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.8%
10.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.2%
0.69
Venue Conceded Mean
1.55
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
36.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
45.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
36.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
45.2%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
85
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.69
Goal Difference Std
1.75
2.96
Stability score
0.84
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
84
23
Lead Matches
25
73.9%
Lead Win Rate
76.0%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.79
16
Trailing Matches
19
25.0%
Non-loss rate
21.1%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
84
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.59
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
77.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
18
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.89
37
Normal Rest History Matches
52
1.35
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
19
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
4
0.80
PPG
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
25.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
5
Current Competition Matches
4
0.80
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
3
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.25
0.87
Portability PPG Range
0.60
58.38
Portability Score
67.08
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
85
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-32.95
PPG0.03
GF-0.20
GA0.04
PPG-0.20
PPG1.51
PPG-0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate1.0%
Failed-to-score rate8.0%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate28.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-16
Goals Mean-0.20
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.86
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.13
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate1.0%
Conceded 2+ rate3.0%
Conceded 3+ rate1.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.86
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.87
History Matches-16
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score2.13
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.29
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate3.9%
Trailing Win Rate7.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.55
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.11
Portability PPG Range0.27
Portability Score-8.70
Rest days-0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Short Rest Points Per Match1.11
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.71
Current Team ELO-32.95
Current Opponent ELO32.95
Current ELO Difference-65.90
Expected score-0.09
History Matches-16
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.63
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cobán Imperial

W
Cobán Imperial2–1Suchitepéquez28 Oct · home
Pick: Cobán Imperial 69% · hit
W
Cobán Imperial3–1Marquense25 Oct · home
Pick: Cobán Imperial 50% · hit
L
Mixco3–1Cobán Imperial18 Oct · away
Pick: Mixco 57% · hit
W
Cobán Imperial2–1Municipal15 Oct · home
Pick: Municipal 51% · missed
L
Antigua GFC2–1Cobán Imperial12 Oct · away
Pick: Antigua GFC 68% · hit

Xelajú

W
Xelajú2–0Marquense3 Nov · home
Pick: Xelajú 56% · hit
D
Mixco0–0Xelajú29 Oct · away
Pick: Mixco 47% · missed
W
Xelajú1–0Municipal24 Oct · home
Pick: Municipal 50% · missed
L
Antigua GFC3–0Xelajú20 Oct · away
Pick: Antigua GFC 60% · hit
W
Xelajú2–1Malacateco15 Oct · home
Pick: Xelajú 56% · hit

About this match

Cobán Imperial and Xelajú meet in Liga Nacional on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Verapaz. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Cobán Imperial win 35.9%, draw 27.2%, Xelajú win 37.0%. The pick is Xelajú win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.3%. Both teams to score: 51.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.