ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Colchester vs Worcester City

Colchester Home · Elo 1,499
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Worcester City Away · Elo 1,535
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Colchester win
Colchester winPick
43.8%
Draw
26.0%
Worcester City win
30.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.3%
No47.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.5%
Under 2.549.5%

How much we know

Colchester history84 matches
Worcester City history74 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Colchester are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Worcester City are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,535 against 1,499. On rating alone Worcester City would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.39 goals a game over 84 matches for Colchester, against 1.50 over 74 for Worcester City.

  • Defences are close

    Colchester concede 1.08 a game, Worcester City 1.08.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of Colchester matches, against 46% for Worcester City. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Colchester
Worcester City
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1499.1
ELO
1535.0
84
ELO · Matches
74
1499.1
Current Team ELO
1535.0
1535.0
Current Opponent ELO
1499.1
-35.88
Current ELO Difference
35.88
0.45
Expected score
0.55
84
History Matches
74
0.00
Residual Mean
0.02
49.88
Overperformance
51.63
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.70
Goals for per game
1.20
1.30
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.68
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
84
Matches
74
1.49
PPG
1.46
40.5%
Win rate
39.2%
27.4%
Draw rate
28.4%
32.1%
Loss rate
32.4%
69.0%
Over 1.5 rate
70.3%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
45.9%
23.8%
Over 3.5 rate
24.3%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
Venue performance10 signals
100
42
Matches
38
1.55
PPG
1.29
42.9%
Win rate
34.2%
26.2%
Draw rate
26.3%
31.0%
Loss rate
39.5%
73.8%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
45.2%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
23.7%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
42
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.39
Goals for per game
1.50
70.2%
Scoring rate
75.7%
48.8%
BTTS rate
48.6%
1.43
Goals for per game
1.47
71.4%
Scoring rate
73.7%
52.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
84
History Matches
74
1.39
Goals Mean
1.50
1.34
Goals Std
1.35
70.2%
Scored 1+ rate
75.7%
40.5%
Scored 2+ rate
41.9%
15.5%
Scored 3+ rate
18.9%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.47
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.08
Goals against per game
1.08
70.2%
Conceding rate
66.2%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.13
71.4%
Conceding rate
71.1%
84
History Matches
74
1.08
Conceded Mean
1.08
1.04
Conceded Std
0.98
22.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.4%
10.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.1%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.13
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.8%
29.8%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.8%
29.8%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
84
History Matches
74
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.72
Goal Difference Std
1.61
1.19
Stability score
0.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
83
Eligible Matches
72
17
Lead Matches
23
82.4%
Lead Win Rate
73.9%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.80
23
Trailing Matches
19
39.1%
Non-loss rate
42.1%
8.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
83
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.57
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
68
Normal Rest History Matches
58
1.43
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
8
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.32
1.11
Portability PPG Range
0.85
57.71
Portability Score
61.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
84
Clean History Matches
74
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-35.88
PPG0.03
GF-0.11
GA0.00
PPG0.26
PPG-0.60
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate5.4%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate2.3%
History Matches10
Goals Mean-0.11
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.60
History Matches10
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate2.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.28
History Matches10
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score0.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.34
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate8.4%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate8.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.26
Portability Score-3.46
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.43
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.37
Current Team ELO-35.88
Current Opponent ELO35.88
Current ELO Difference-71.76
Expected score-0.10
History Matches10
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Colchester

L
Colchester1–3Walsall31 Oct · home
Pick: Walsall 38% · hit
L
Northampton2–0Colchester24 Oct · away
Pick: Northampton 40% · hit
D
Chesterfield1–1Colchester20 Oct · away
Pick: Chesterfield 41% · missed
D
Colchester0–0Exeter City17 Oct · home
Pick: Colchester 39% · missed
L
Bristol Rovers2–0Colchester1 Sep · away
Pick: Bristol Rovers 47% · hit

Worcester City

W
Worcester City4–1Real Bedford31 Oct · home
Pick: Real Bedford 47% · missed
W
Banbury United0–3Worcester City27 Oct · away
Pick: Banbury United 37% · missed
D
Chorley1–1Worcester City17 Oct · away
Pick: Chorley 47% · missed
L
Worcester City1–3Stourbridge13 Oct · home
Pick: Worcester City 43% · missed
L
Worcester City0–1Bromsgrove Sporting31 Aug · home
Pick: Worcester City 41% · missed

About this match

Colchester and Worcester City meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Colchester win 43.8%, draw 26.0%, Worcester City win 30.2%. The pick is Colchester win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.5%. Both teams to score: 52.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.