ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone D Italy Group D - 11 2026

Coriano vs Varesina

Coriano Home · Elo 1,452
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Varesina Away · Elo 1,507
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Varesina win
Coriano win
26.4%
Draw
31.2%
Varesina winPick
42.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.0%
No48.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.1%
Under 2.557.9%

How much we know

Coriano history35 matches
Varesina history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Varesina are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Varesina are rated 55 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,507 against 1,452. On rating alone Varesina would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Varesina score far more

    0.83 goals a game over 35 matches for Coriano, against 1.37 over 52 for Varesina.

  • Defences are close

    Coriano concede 1.34 a game, Varesina 1.31.

  • Varesina games more often go over 2.5 goals

    31% of Coriano matches, against 48% for Varesina. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Coriano
Varesina@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1451.8
ELO
1506.7
35
ELO · Matches
52
1451.8
Current Team ELO
1506.7
1506.7
Current Opponent ELO
1451.8
-54.89
Current ELO Difference
54.89
0.42
Expected score
0.58
35
History Matches
52
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.01
45.71
Overperformance
50.47
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
0.60
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.75
Overall performance9 signals
90
35
Matches
52
0.89
PPG
1.33
20.0%
Win rate
32.7%
28.6%
Draw rate
34.6%
51.4%
Loss rate
32.7%
65.7%
Over 1.5 rate
78.8%
31.4%
Over 2.5 rate
48.1%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
28.8%
1.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
26
0.94
PPG
1.58
23.5%
Win rate
42.3%
23.5%
Draw rate
30.8%
52.9%
Loss rate
26.9%
47.1%
Over 1.5 rate
80.8%
23.5%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
5.9%
Over 3.5 rate
19.2%
1.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
17
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.83
Goals for per game
1.37
60.0%
Scoring rate
76.9%
48.6%
BTTS rate
63.5%
0.71
Goals for per game
1.27
52.9%
Scoring rate
76.9%
35.3%
BTTS rate
57.7%
35
History Matches
52
0.83
Goals Mean
1.37
0.81
Goals Std
1.11
60.0%
Scored 1+ rate
76.9%
20.0%
Scored 2+ rate
42.3%
2.9%
Scored 3+ rate
9.6%
0.71
Venue Goals Mean
1.27
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.34
Goals against per game
1.31
82.9%
Conceding rate
80.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.15
70.6%
Conceding rate
76.9%
35
History Matches
52
1.34
Conceded Mean
1.31
0.95
Conceded Std
0.84
37.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.2%
11.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.8%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.15
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
47.1%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
47.1%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
35
History Matches
52
0.93
Result entropy
1.00
1.13
Goal Difference Std
1.28
6.99
Stability score
0.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
35
Eligible Matches
52
10
Lead Matches
17
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
58.8%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.67
12
Trailing Matches
17
16.7%
Non-loss rate
41.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
35
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.37
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.46
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.0
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
4
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
29
Normal Rest History Matches
39
0.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
5
Long Rest History Matches
8
0.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.37
—
Portability PPG Range
0.89
—
Portability Score
57.53
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
35
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-54.89
PPG-0.44
GF-0.54
GA0.04
PPG-0.64
PPG0.40
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate16.9%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Failed-to-score rate24.0%
History Matches-17
Goals Mean-0.54
Goals Std-0.30
Scored 1+ rate-0.17
Scored 2+ rate-0.22
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.56
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.23
History Matches-17
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate5.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.15
History Matches-17
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.15
Stability score6.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.35
Eligible Matches-17
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate1.2%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-17
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.45
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.53
Current Team ELO-54.89
Current Opponent ELO54.89
Current ELO Difference-109.8
Expected score-0.16
History Matches-17
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Coriano

D
Correggese2–2Coriano1 Nov · away
Pick: Correggese 42% · missed
L
Coriano1–2Arconatese25 Oct · home
Pick: Coriano 51% · missed
L
Solbiatese2–1Coriano21 Oct · away
Pick: Coriano 38% · missed
L
Sant'Angelo2–0Coriano18 Oct · away
Pick: Sant'Angelo 47% · hit
L
Coriano1–2Pontedera14 Oct · home
Pick: Coriano 38% · missed

Varesina

W
Varesina3–1Città di Varese1 Nov · home
Pick: Varesina 42% · hit
D
Castellanzese1–1Varesina25 Oct · away
Pick: Varesina 42% · missed
D
Varesina0–0Pro Sesto18 Oct · home
Pick: Varesina 47% · missed
D
Varesina0–0Pro Patria4 Oct · home
Pick: Varesina 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Coriano and Varesina meet in Serie D - Girone D on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Coriano win 26.4%, draw 31.2%, Varesina win 42.4%. The pick is Varesina win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.1%. Both teams to score: 52.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.