ScoreProb
Liga II Romania Round 13 2026

CS Afumati vs FC Bacau

CS Afumati Home · Elo 1,483
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Bacau Away · Elo 1,590
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Bacau win
CS Afumati win
29.3%
Draw
23.1%
FC Bacau winPick
47.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.4%
No44.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.0%
Under 2.543.0%

How much we know

CS Afumati history49 matches
FC Bacau history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 09:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why FC Bacau are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Bacau are rated 107 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,590 against 1,483. On rating alone FC Bacau would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • FC Bacau score more

    1.41 goals a game over 49 matches for CS Afumati, against 1.69 over 51 for FC Bacau.

  • Defences are close

    CS Afumati concede 1.45 a game, FC Bacau 1.33.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of CS Afumati matches, against 61% for FC Bacau. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
CS Afumati
FC Bacau
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1482.9
ELO
1590.1
49
ELO · Matches
51
1482.9
Current Team ELO
1590.1
1590.1
Current Opponent ELO
1482.9
-107.2
Current ELO Difference
107.2
0.35
Expected score
0.65
49
History Matches
51
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.09
48.82
Overperformance
56.42
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.90
1.40
Goals for per game
2.40
1.70
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.20
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.74
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
51
1.20
PPG
1.78
34.7%
Win rate
54.9%
16.3%
Draw rate
13.7%
49.0%
Loss rate
31.4%
79.6%
Over 1.5 rate
78.4%
59.2%
Over 2.5 rate
60.8%
26.5%
Over 3.5 rate
37.3%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
25
1.13
PPG
1.56
33.3%
Win rate
48.0%
12.5%
Draw rate
12.0%
54.2%
Loss rate
40.0%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
64.0%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
48.0%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
24
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.41
Goals for per game
1.69
73.5%
Scoring rate
82.4%
53.1%
BTTS rate
51.0%
1.21
Goals for per game
1.60
66.7%
Scoring rate
76.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
56.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.50
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
49
History Matches
51
1.41
Goals Mean
1.69
1.40
Goals Std
1.23
73.5%
Scored 1+ rate
82.4%
36.7%
Scored 2+ rate
47.1%
16.3%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
1.21
Venue Goals Mean
1.60
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.45
Goals against per game
1.33
75.5%
Conceding rate
64.7%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.60
83.3%
Conceding rate
76.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
49
History Matches
51
1.45
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.14
Conceded Std
1.40
44.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.2%
20.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.7%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.60
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
51
0.92
Result entropy
0.88
1.95
Goal Difference Std
2.00
7.81
Stability score
12.12
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
42
16
Lead Matches
19
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
94.7%
0.54
Lead Points Retention
0.96
16
Trailing Matches
11
25.0%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
27
Normal Rest History Matches
25
0.96
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
17
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
1.75
25.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.75
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.25
6
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.94
Portability PPG Std
0.27
2.50
Portability PPG Range
0.75
34.76
Portability Score
64.90
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-107.2
PPG-0.58
GF-0.28
GA0.12
PPG-0.75
PPG-0.44
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate8.9%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate9.3%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.28
Goals Std0.17
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Goals Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.58
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std-0.25
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate3.7%
Conceded 3+ rate4.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.86
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score-4.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.00
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.45
Lead Points Retention-0.42
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate15.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.25
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.67
Portability PPG Range1.75
Portability Score-30.14
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Current Team ELO-107.2
Current Opponent ELO107.2
Current ELO Difference-214.4
Expected score-0.30
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-7.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

CS Afumati

L
CSM Ramnicu Valcea3–2CS Afumati31 Oct · away
Pick: CSM Ramnicu Valcea 58% · hit
L
CS Afumati1–3CSA Steaua Bucureşti25 Oct · home
Pick: CS Afumati 49% · missed
L
Popești-Leordeni2–0CS Afumati17 Oct · away
Pick: Popești-Leordeni 63% · hit
W
CS Afumati2–1Unirea Slobozia29 Aug · home
Pick: CS Afumati 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FC Bacau

L
FC Bacau1–4Metaloglobus31 Oct · home
Pick: FC Bacau 57% · missed
D
Sporting Lieşti0–0FC Bacau28 Oct · away
Pick: FC Bacau 49% · missed
L
FC Politehnica Timisoara1–0FC Bacau24 Oct · away
Pick: FC Politehnica Timisoara 56% · hit
W
FC Bacau3–0Gloria Bistriţa18 Oct · home
Pick: FC Bacau 49% · hit
D
FC Bacau0–0Slatina31 Aug · home
Pick: Slatina 41% · missed

About this match

CS Afumati and FC Bacau meet in Liga II on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 09:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: CS Afumati win 29.3%, draw 23.1%, FC Bacau win 47.6%. The pick is FC Bacau win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.0%. Both teams to score: 55.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.