ScoreProb
Liga II Romania Round 13 2026

Concordia vs ASA Targu Mures

Concordia Home · Elo 1,576
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
ASA Targu Mures Away · Elo 1,547
Stadionul Concordia, Chiajna Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Concordia win
Concordia winPick
55.3%
Draw
23.9%
ASA Targu Mures win
20.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.1%
No43.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.4%
Under 2.540.6%

How much we know

Concordia history54 matches
ASA Targu Mures history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 09:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Concordia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Concordia are rated 28 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,576 against 1,547. On rating alone Concordia would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Concordia score more

    1.81 goals a game over 54 matches for Concordia, against 1.63 over 40 for ASA Targu Mures.

  • ASA Targu Mures concede fewer

    Concordia concede 1.26 a game, ASA Targu Mures 1.13.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Concordia matches, against 55% for ASA Targu Mures. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Concordia
ASA Targu Mures
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1575.8
ELO
1547.5
54
ELO · Matches
40
1575.8
Current Team ELO
1547.5
1547.5
Current Opponent ELO
1575.8
28.34
Current ELO Difference
-28.34
0.54
Expected score
0.46
54
History Matches
40
0.07
Residual Mean
0.06
54.91
Overperformance
53.87
0.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.40
2.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.20
3.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.50
Goals against per game
1.20
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
3.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.48
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.63
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.25
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
40
1.56
PPG
1.60
46.3%
Win rate
45.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
25.0%
37.0%
Loss rate
30.0%
79.6%
Over 1.5 rate
82.5%
53.7%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
37.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.5%
2.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
20
1.62
PPG
1.35
50.0%
Win rate
35.0%
11.5%
Draw rate
30.0%
38.5%
Loss rate
35.0%
80.8%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
26
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.81
Goals for per game
1.63
79.6%
Scoring rate
77.5%
53.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.92
Goals for per game
1.40
84.6%
Scoring rate
85.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
70.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
54
History Matches
40
1.81
Goals Mean
1.63
1.67
Goals Std
1.43
79.6%
Scored 1+ rate
77.5%
51.9%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
20.4%
Scored 3+ rate
30.0%
1.92
Venue Goals Mean
1.40
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.26
Goals against per game
1.13
72.2%
Conceding rate
62.5%
1.31
Goals against per game
1.35
65.4%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.75
Goals against per game
1.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
54
History Matches
40
1.26
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.17
Conceded Std
1.08
31.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.5%
14.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.0%
1.31
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
20.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.5%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
20.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.5%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
40
0.93
Result entropy
0.97
2.27
Goal Difference Std
1.97
6.88
Stability score
2.87
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
39
19
Lead Matches
16
84.2%
Lead Win Rate
93.8%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.94
18
Trailing Matches
8
27.8%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
1.06
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.80
32
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
16
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.69
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.25
PPG
1.00
75.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.25
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
6
Competition Season Count
4
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.39
1.35
Portability PPG Range
0.82
51.64
Portability Score
56.36
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO28.34
PPG-0.04
GF0.19
GA0.13
PPG1.25
PPG0.27
PPG1.00
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate9.6%
Failed-to-score rate0.4%
History Matches14
Goals Mean0.19
Goals Std0.24
Scored 1+ rate2.1%
Scored 2+ rate11.9%
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.85
History Matches14
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate4.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.61
History Matches14
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.29
Stability score4.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.29
Eligible Matches15
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate2.8%
Trailing Win Rate16.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches15
First Half Goals For Mean-0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.75
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.53
Portability Score-4.72
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.60
Normal Rest History Matches14
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.59
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.56
Current Team ELO28.34
Current Opponent ELO-28.34
Current ELO Difference56.68
Expected score0.08
History Matches14
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.35

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Concordia

W
Slatina1–2Concordia1 Nov · away
Pick: Slatina 57% · missed
D
Concordia1–1Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe29 Oct · home
Pick: Concordia 44% · missed
D
Unirea Slobozia2–2Concordia24 Oct · away
Pick: Concordia 47% · missed
W
Concordia5–0Viitorul Şelimbăr17 Oct · home
Pick: Concordia 60% · hit
W
Progresul Spartac2–5Concordia1 Sep · away
Pick: Concordia 55% · hit

ASA Targu Mures

L
ASA Targu Mures0–1Unirea Slobozia31 Oct · home
Pick: ASA Targu Mures 52% · missed
L
Viitorul Şelimbăr1–0ASA Targu Mures25 Oct · away
Pick: Viitorul Şelimbăr 40% · hit
L
ASA Targu Mures2–4Chindia Targoviste20 Oct · home
Pick: Chindia Targoviste 46% · hit
L
FC Politehnica Timisoara3–0ASA Targu Mures30 Aug · away
Pick: FC Politehnica Timisoara 66% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Concordia and ASA Targu Mures meet in Liga II on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 09:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadionul Concordia, Chiajna. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Concordia win 55.3%, draw 23.9%, ASA Targu Mures win 20.8%. The pick is Concordia win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.4%. Both teams to score: 56.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.