ScoreProb
Primera División Costa Rica Round 16 2026

CS Cartagines vs Escorpiones Belén

CS Cartagines Home · Elo 1,561
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Escorpiones Belén Away · Elo 1,598
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: CS Cartagines win
CS Cartagines winPick
57.9%
Draw
21.4%
Escorpiones Belén win
20.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.6%
No46.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.6%
Under 2.543.4%

How much we know

CS Cartagines history71 matches
Escorpiones Belén history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why CS Cartagines are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Escorpiones Belén are rated 38 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,598 against 1,561. On rating alone Escorpiones Belén would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Escorpiones Belén score more

    1.34 goals a game over 71 matches for CS Cartagines, against 1.92 over 51 for Escorpiones Belén.

  • Defences are close

    CS Cartagines concede 1.00 a game, Escorpiones Belén 1.08.

  • Escorpiones Belén games more often go over 2.5 goals

    42% of CS Cartagines matches, against 53% for Escorpiones Belén. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
CS Cartagines
Escorpiones Belén
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1560.9
ELO
1598.4
71
ELO · Matches
51
1560.9
Current Team ELO
1598.4
1598.4
Current Opponent ELO
1560.9
-37.55
Current ELO Difference
37.55
0.45
Expected score
0.55
71
History Matches
51
0.04
Residual Mean
0.08
53.01
Overperformance
56.10
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.40
2.60
Goals for per game
0.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.30
1.70
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.42
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.26
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.91
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
51
1.54
PPG
1.96
43.7%
Win rate
56.9%
22.5%
Draw rate
25.5%
33.8%
Loss rate
17.6%
66.2%
Over 1.5 rate
80.4%
42.3%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
19.7%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
28
1.91
PPG
1.71
58.8%
Win rate
50.0%
14.7%
Draw rate
21.4%
26.5%
Loss rate
28.6%
73.5%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
55.9%
Over 2.5 rate
46.4%
14.7%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
34
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.34
Goals for per game
1.92
70.4%
Scoring rate
86.3%
49.3%
BTTS rate
54.9%
1.65
Goals for per game
1.50
82.4%
Scoring rate
85.7%
55.9%
BTTS rate
57.1%
2.20
Goals for per game
0.50
80.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
71
History Matches
51
1.34
Goals Mean
1.92
1.41
Goals Std
1.45
70.4%
Scored 1+ rate
86.3%
33.8%
Scored 2+ rate
60.8%
15.5%
Scored 3+ rate
23.5%
1.65
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
1.08
69.0%
Conceding rate
60.8%
0.91
Goals against per game
1.25
67.6%
Conceding rate
67.9%
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
71
History Matches
51
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.08
0.89
Conceded Std
1.15
23.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.5%
5.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.7%
0.91
Venue Conceded Mean
1.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.2%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
13.7%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.2%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
13.7%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
51
0.97
Result entropy
0.89
1.73
Goal Difference Std
1.87
3.13
Stability score
11.20
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
51
20
Lead Matches
23
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
95.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.97
18
Trailing Matches
8
27.8%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
22.2%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.75
Rest days
77.75
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.70
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.50
42
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.96
18
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
4
1.80
PPG
0.25
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
5
Current Competition Matches
4
1.80
Current Competition PPG
0.25
0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
7
Competition Season Count
4
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.11
Portability PPG Std
0.87
0.33
Portability PPG Range
1.94
82.46
Portability Score
36.39
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-37.55
PPG-0.43
GF-0.58
GA-0.08
PPG1.55
PPG0.20
PPG1.60
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate15.9%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate0.2%
Failed-to-score rate3.4%
History Matches20
Goals Mean-0.58
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.27
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.93
History Matches20
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std-0.26
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.49
History Matches20
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.14
Stability score-8.08
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.23
Eligible Matches20
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.16
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate9.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches20
First Half Goals For Mean-0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG1.55
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.30
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.77
Portability PPG Range-1.61
Portability Score46.07
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.80
Normal Rest History Matches14
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Current Team ELO-37.55
Current Opponent ELO37.55
Current ELO Difference-75.10
Expected score-0.11
History Matches20
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

CS Cartagines

W
CS Cartagines3–0San Carlos1 Nov · home
Pick: CS Cartagines 59% · hit
D
CD Olimpia2–2CS Cartagines29 Oct · away
Pick: CD Olimpia 47% · missed
L
CS Herediano3–1CS Cartagines25 Oct · away
Pick: CS Herediano 39% · hit
W
CS Cartagines1–0CD Olimpia22 Oct · home
Pick: CS Cartagines 37% · hit
W
CS Cartagines1–0Deportivo Saprissa18 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Saprissa 42% · missed

Escorpiones Belén

W
Inter San Carlos2–3Escorpiones Belén31 Oct · away
Pick: Inter San Carlos 64% · missed
L
Escorpiones Belén2–4Sporting San Jose24 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting San Jose 40% · hit
L
Escorpiones Belén1–2Puntarenas FC20 Oct · home
Pick: Escorpiones Belén 42% · missed
W
Perez Zeledon1–4Escorpiones Belén14 Oct · away
Pick: Perez Zeledon 45% · missed
L
Deportivo Saprissa2–1Escorpiones Belén31 Aug · away
Pick: Deportivo Saprissa 68% · hit

About this match

CS Cartagines and Escorpiones Belén meet in Primera División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: CS Cartagines win 57.9%, draw 21.4%, Escorpiones Belén win 20.6%. The pick is CS Cartagines win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.6%. Both teams to score: 53.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.