ScoreProb
Super Liga Moldova Round 18 2026

Dacia-Buiucani vs Politehnica UTM

Dacia-Buiucani Home · Elo 1,442
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Politehnica UTM Away · Elo 1,501
Joma Arena Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dacia-Buiucani win
Dacia-Buiucani winPick
58.2%
Draw
17.4%
Politehnica UTM win
24.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.9%
No37.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.9%
Under 2.529.1%

How much we know

Dacia-Buiucani history56 matches
Politehnica UTM history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Dacia-Buiucani are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Politehnica UTM are rated 59 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,501 against 1,442. On rating alone Politehnica UTM would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Dacia-Buiucani score more

    1.77 goals a game over 56 matches for Dacia-Buiucani, against 1.55 over 42 for Politehnica UTM.

  • Dacia-Buiucani concede fewer

    Dacia-Buiucani concede 1.52 a game, Politehnica UTM 2.14.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    66% of Dacia-Buiucani matches, against 71% for Politehnica UTM. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dacia-Buiucani
Politehnica UTM@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1441.9
ELO
1500.7
56
ELO · Matches
42
1441.9
Current Team ELO
1500.7
1500.7
Current Opponent ELO
1441.9
-58.78
Current ELO Difference
58.78
0.42
Expected score
0.58
56
History Matches
42
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.00
46.19
Overperformance
50.22
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.06
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.69
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.93
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
42
1.16
PPG
1.17
33.9%
Win rate
33.3%
14.3%
Draw rate
16.7%
51.8%
Loss rate
50.0%
80.4%
Over 1.5 rate
92.9%
66.1%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.88
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
21
1.14
PPG
0.81
35.7%
Win rate
19.0%
7.1%
Draw rate
23.8%
57.1%
Loss rate
57.1%
89.3%
Over 1.5 rate
95.2%
78.6%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
39.3%
Over 3.5 rate
47.6%
3.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.46
28
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.77
Goals for per game
1.55
66.1%
Scoring rate
69.0%
46.4%
BTTS rate
59.5%
1.96
Goals for per game
1.14
67.9%
Scoring rate
71.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
55.6%
44.4%
BTTS rate
44.4%
56
History Matches
42
1.77
Goals Mean
1.55
2.10
Goals Std
1.62
66.1%
Scored 1+ rate
69.0%
37.5%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
26.8%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.96
Venue Goals Mean
1.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.52
Goals against per game
2.14
73.2%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.79
Goals against per game
2.52
78.6%
Conceding rate
90.5%
1.56
Goals against per game
1.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
77.8%
56
History Matches
42
1.52
Conceded Mean
2.14
1.21
Conceded Std
1.74
53.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.6%
17.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
40.5%
1.79
Venue Conceded Mean
2.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
33.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
33.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
42
0.90
Result entropy
0.92
2.69
Goal Difference Std
2.88
10.30
Stability score
7.94
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
42
16
Lead Matches
16
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.73
17
Trailing Matches
16
11.8%
Non-loss rate
6.3%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
1.05
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.14
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.96
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
26
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.12
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
26
Long Rest History Matches
17
0.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
9
Matches
9
1.44
PPG
1.22
44.4%
Win rate
33.3%
11.1%
Draw rate
22.2%
44.4%
Loss rate
44.4%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
2.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.09
9
Current Competition Matches
9
1.44
Current Competition PPG
1.22
-0.22
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
3
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.85
Portability PPG Std
0.09
2.20
Portability PPG Range
0.22
37.06
Portability Score
84.11
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-58.78
PPG-0.01
GF0.22
GA-0.63
PPG0.22
PPG0.33
PPG0.60
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate3.0%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate11.9%
Failed-to-score rate3.6%
History Matches14
Goals Mean0.22
Goals Std0.48
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate10.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.82
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.73
History Matches14
Conceded Mean-0.63
Conceded Std-0.53
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Conceded 2+ rate6.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Conceded Mean-0.74
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.40
History Matches14
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.18
Stability score2.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.62
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate12.5%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate5.5%
Trailing Win Rate5.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.22
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.22
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.75
Portability PPG Range1.98
Portability Score-47.05
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.04
Current Team ELO-58.78
Current Opponent ELO58.78
Current ELO Difference-117.6
Expected score-0.17
History Matches14
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-4.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dacia-Buiucani

L
Milsami Orhei1–0Dacia-Buiucani1 Nov · away
Pick: Milsami Orhei 50% · hit
W
Dacia-Buiucani6–0Univer Comrat27 Oct · home
Pick: Dacia-Buiucani 69% · hit
W
Dacia-Buiucani3–1Sireți24 Oct · home
Pick: Dacia-Buiucani 53% · hit
D
Petrocub0–0Dacia-Buiucani17 Oct · away
Pick: Petrocub 58% · missed
D
Dacia-Buiucani0–0Milsami Orhei30 Aug · home
Pick: Dacia-Buiucani 48% · missed

Politehnica UTM

L
Sireți2–1Politehnica UTM1 Nov · away
Pick: Sireți 49% · hit
W
Politehnica UTM5–1FC Chișinău27 Oct · home
Pick: Politehnica UTM 70% · hit
L
Politehnica UTM0–2Sheriff Tiraspol24 Oct · home
Pick: Sheriff Tiraspol 61% · hit
W
CSF Bălți1–4Politehnica UTM18 Oct · away
Pick: Politehnica UTM 44% · hit
D
Politehnica UTM0–0Sireți29 Aug · home
Pick: Politehnica UTM 52% · missed

About this match

Dacia-Buiucani and Politehnica UTM meet in Super Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Joma Arena. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Dacia-Buiucani win 58.2%, draw 17.4%, Politehnica UTM win 24.4%. The pick is Dacia-Buiucani win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.9%. Both teams to score: 62.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.