ScoreProb
Super Liga Moldova Round 18 2026

Milsami Orhei vs CSF Bălți

Milsami Orhei Home · Elo 1,519
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
CSF Bălți Away · Elo 1,430
Complexul Sportiv Raional, Orhei Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Milsami Orhei win
Milsami Orhei winPick
63.8%
Draw
19.3%
CSF Bălți win
16.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.6%
No49.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.3%
Under 2.540.7%

How much we know

Milsami Orhei history72 matches
CSF Bălți history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Milsami Orhei are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Milsami Orhei are rated 89 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,519 against 1,430. On rating alone Milsami Orhei would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Milsami Orhei score more

    1.51 goals a game over 72 matches for Milsami Orhei, against 1.07 over 58 for CSF Bălți.

  • Milsami Orhei concede fewer

    Milsami Orhei concede 1.15 a game, CSF Bălți 1.88.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Milsami Orhei matches, against 53% for CSF Bălți. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Milsami Orhei
CSF Bălți@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1519.1
ELO
1429.6
72
ELO · Matches
58
1519.1
Current Team ELO
1429.6
1429.6
Current Opponent ELO
1519.1
89.50
Current ELO Difference
-89.50
0.63
Expected score
0.37
72
History Matches
58
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.06
51.36
Overperformance
45.67
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.20
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
1.40
Goals against per game
4.00
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.60
0.90
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
10.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.60
1.56
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.01
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.52
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
58
1.49
PPG
0.93
40.3%
Win rate
24.1%
27.8%
Draw rate
20.7%
31.9%
Loss rate
55.2%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
79.3%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
53.4%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
31.0%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
29
1.84
PPG
0.76
52.6%
Win rate
20.7%
26.3%
Draw rate
13.8%
21.1%
Loss rate
65.5%
60.5%
Over 1.5 rate
82.8%
52.6%
Over 2.5 rate
62.1%
26.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.6%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
38
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.51
Goals for per game
1.07
68.1%
Scoring rate
56.9%
48.6%
BTTS rate
48.3%
1.61
Goals for per game
0.79
68.4%
Scoring rate
55.2%
42.1%
BTTS rate
48.3%
0.89
Goals for per game
0.89
55.6%
Scoring rate
66.7%
44.4%
BTTS rate
55.6%
72
History Matches
58
1.51
Goals Mean
1.07
1.55
Goals Std
1.34
68.1%
Scored 1+ rate
56.9%
40.3%
Scored 2+ rate
24.1%
22.2%
Scored 3+ rate
15.5%
1.61
Venue Goals Mean
0.79
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.15
Goals against per game
1.88
65.3%
Conceding rate
84.5%
0.82
Goals against per game
2.10
55.3%
Conceding rate
86.2%
1.56
Goals against per game
2.89
66.7%
Conceding rate
88.9%
72
History Matches
58
1.15
Conceded Mean
1.88
1.13
Conceded Std
1.39
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
55.2%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.3%
0.82
Venue Conceded Mean
2.10
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.5%
31.9%
Failed-to-score rate
43.1%
44.7%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
44.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.5%
31.9%
Failed-to-score rate
43.1%
44.7%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
44.8%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
58
0.99
Result entropy
0.91
2.01
Goal Difference Std
2.05
1.09
Stability score
9.23
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
57
21
Lead Matches
10
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.87
14
Trailing Matches
24
21.4%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.07
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.79
Rest days
77.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
43
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.96
20
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.85
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.89
Competition & season17 signals
170
9
Matches
9
1.11
PPG
0.56
22.2%
Win rate
11.1%
44.4%
Draw rate
22.2%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
55.6%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
77.8%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.58
9
Current Competition Matches
9
1.11
Current Competition PPG
0.56
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
10
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.32
Portability PPG Std
0.34
0.99
Portability PPG Range
0.83
61.13
Portability Score
59.88
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO89.50
PPG0.56
GF0.44
GA-0.73
PPG0.56
PPG1.08
PPG1.00
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate19.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate30.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches14
Goals Mean0.44
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate11.2%
Scored 2+ rate16.1%
Scored 3+ rate6.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.81
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.04
History Matches14
Conceded Mean-0.73
Conceded Std-0.26
Clean-sheet rate19.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.22
Conceded 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Conceded Mean-1.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.45
History Matches14
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score-8.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.85
Eligible Matches15
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate5.7%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate4.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches15
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.39
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.56
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.33
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range0.16
Portability Score1.25
Rest days-0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.29
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.96
Current Team ELO89.50
Current Opponent ELO-89.50
Current ELO Difference179.0
Expected score0.25
History Matches14
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Milsami Orhei

W
Milsami Orhei1–0Dacia-Buiucani1 Nov · home
Pick: Milsami Orhei 50% · hit
W
Milsami Orhei7–0FCM Ungheni27 Oct · home
Pick: Milsami Orhei 69% · hit
L
Petrocub2–1Milsami Orhei24 Oct · away
Pick: Petrocub 56% · hit
D
Milsami Orhei1–1Zimbru18 Oct · home
Pick: Zimbru 49% · missed
D
Dacia-Buiucani0–0Milsami Orhei30 Aug · away
Pick: Dacia-Buiucani 48% · missed

CSF Bălți

L
CSF Bălți0–6Petrocub31 Oct · home
Pick: Petrocub 64% · hit
L
CSF Bălți1–2Iskra28 Oct · home
Pick: Iskra 42% · hit
L
Zimbru4–0CSF Bălți25 Oct · away
Pick: Zimbru 81% · hit
L
CSF Bălți1–4Politehnica UTM18 Oct · home
Pick: Politehnica UTM 44% · hit
L
Petrocub3–0CSF Bălți30 Aug · away
Pick: Petrocub 79% · hit

About this match

Milsami Orhei and CSF Bălți meet in Super Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Complexul Sportiv Raional, Orhei. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Milsami Orhei win 63.8%, draw 19.3%, CSF Bălți win 16.9%. The pick is Milsami Orhei win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.3%. Both teams to score: 50.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.