ScoreProb
Division 2 - Play-offs Sweden Promotion Play-offs 2026

Dalstorps vs IFK Trelleborg

Dalstorps Home · Elo 1,553
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
IFK Trelleborg Away · Elo 1,573
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: IFK Trelleborg win
Dalstorps win
28.9%
Draw
20.9%
IFK Trelleborg winPick
50.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.4%
No39.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.5%
Under 2.537.5%

How much we know

Dalstorps history20 matches
IFK Trelleborg history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.2%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,755 matches.

Why IFK Trelleborg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,553 against 1,573. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.85 goals a game over 20 matches for Dalstorps, against 2.00 over 48 for IFK Trelleborg.

  • Defences are close

    Dalstorps concede 1.25 a game, IFK Trelleborg 1.33.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of Dalstorps matches, against 63% for IFK Trelleborg. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dalstorps
IFK Trelleborg@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1552.7
ELO
1573.1
20
ELO · Matches
48
1552.7
Current Team ELO
1573.1
1573.1
Current Opponent ELO
1552.7
-20.37
Current ELO Difference
20.37
0.47
Expected score
0.53
20
History Matches
48
0.13
Residual Mean
0.07
56.54
Overperformance
55.27
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.40
2.00
Goals for per game
3.00
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
2.00
2.20
Goals for per game
2.10
1.10
Goals against per game
0.90
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.37
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
20
Matches
48
1.80
PPG
1.77
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
30.0%
Draw rate
27.1%
20.0%
Loss rate
22.9%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
39.6%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
Venue performance10 signals
100
10
Matches
24
2.10
PPG
1.63
60.0%
Win rate
45.8%
30.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
10.0%
Loss rate
29.2%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
70.0%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
70.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
10
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.85
Goals for per game
2.00
90.0%
Scoring rate
87.5%
70.0%
BTTS rate
68.8%
2.30
Goals for per game
1.67
90.0%
Scoring rate
79.2%
60.0%
BTTS rate
58.3%
20
History Matches
48
1.85
Goals Mean
2.00
1.24
Goals Std
1.58
90.0%
Scored 1+ rate
87.5%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
52.1%
30.0%
Scored 3+ rate
29.2%
2.30
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.25
Goals against per game
1.33
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.29
60.0%
Conceding rate
70.8%
20
History Matches
48
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.13
Conceded Std
1.18
30.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.4%
10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.6%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
20
History Matches
48
0.94
Result entropy
0.94
1.66
Goal Difference Std
1.94
6.28
Stability score
5.52
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
20
Eligible Matches
48
10
Lead Matches
16
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.90
3
Trailing Matches
14
0.0%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
20
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
1.05
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.31
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.00
Rest days
75.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
9
Normal Rest History Matches
24
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.83
10
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.59
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.42
—
Portability PPG Range
0.94
—
Portability Score
54.19
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
20
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-20.37
PPG0.03
GF-0.15
GA-0.08
PPG0.48
PPG-0.80
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-28
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate10.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-28
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std-0.35
Scored 1+ rate2.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate0.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.63
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches-28
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.24
History Matches-28
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.28
Stability score0.76
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.49
Eligible Matches-28
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate-0.43
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches-28
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.17
Long Rest History Matches-12
Long Rest Points Per Match0.21
Current Team ELO-20.37
Current Opponent ELO20.37
Current ELO Difference-40.74
Expected score-0.06
History Matches-28
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance1.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dalstorps

W
Astrio1–5Dalstorps18 Oct · away
Pick: Dalstorps 75% · hit
W
Onsala0–2Dalstorps29 Aug · away
Pick: Onsala 40% · missed
L
Dalstorps0–2Norrby IF26 Aug · home
Pick: Norrby IF 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

IFK Trelleborg

L
Staffanstorp United3–1IFK Trelleborg18 Oct · away
Pick: IFK Trelleborg 53% · missed
W
IFK Trelleborg2–0Räppe4 Oct · home
Pick: IFK Trelleborg 65% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Dalstorps and IFK Trelleborg meet in Division 2 - Play-offs on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Dalstorps win 28.9%, draw 20.9%, IFK Trelleborg win 50.2%. The pick is IFK Trelleborg win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.5%. Both teams to score: 60.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.