ScoreProb
Division 2 - Play-offs Sweden Promotion Play-offs 2026

Sleipner vs IFK Luleå

Sleipner Home · Elo 1,549
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
IFK Luleå Away · Elo 1,543
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sleipner win
Sleipner winPick
51.9%
Draw
21.6%
IFK Luleå win
26.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.8%
No38.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.9%
Under 2.535.1%

How much we know

Sleipner history47 matches
IFK Luleå history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Sleipner are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,549 against 1,543. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • IFK Luleå score more

    1.68 goals a game over 47 matches for Sleipner, against 2.00 over 42 for IFK Luleå.

  • Defences are close

    Sleipner concede 1.53 a game, IFK Luleå 1.45.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of Sleipner matches, against 67% for IFK Luleå. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sleipner
IFK Luleå@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1549.1
ELO
1542.9
47
ELO · Matches
42
1549.1
Current Team ELO
1542.9
1542.9
Current Opponent ELO
1549.1
6.21
Current ELO Difference
-6.21
0.51
Expected score
0.49
47
History Matches
42
0.04
Residual Mean
0.05
53.14
Overperformance
53.09
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.50
2.20
Goals for per game
2.00
1.90
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.00
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.81
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
2.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
42
1.64
PPG
1.67
46.8%
Win rate
50.0%
23.4%
Draw rate
16.7%
29.8%
Loss rate
33.3%
89.4%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
59.6%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
31.9%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
22
1.82
PPG
1.73
50.0%
Win rate
54.5%
31.8%
Draw rate
9.1%
18.2%
Loss rate
36.4%
86.4%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
72.7%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
22
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.68
Goals for per game
2.00
85.1%
Scoring rate
85.7%
66.0%
BTTS rate
64.3%
1.86
Goals for per game
1.86
90.9%
Scoring rate
90.9%
68.2%
BTTS rate
72.7%
47
History Matches
42
1.68
Goals Mean
2.00
1.26
Goals Std
1.51
85.1%
Scored 1+ rate
85.7%
48.9%
Scored 2+ rate
54.8%
21.3%
Scored 3+ rate
31.0%
1.86
Venue Goals Mean
1.86
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.53
Goals against per game
1.45
80.9%
Conceding rate
73.8%
1.23
Goals against per game
1.50
77.3%
Conceding rate
77.3%
47
History Matches
42
1.53
Conceded Mean
1.45
1.40
Conceded Std
1.29
38.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.5%
14.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.0%
1.23
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
14.9%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
9.1%
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
14.9%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
9.1%
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
42
0.96
Result entropy
0.92
2.06
Goal Difference Std
2.12
3.88
Stability score
7.94
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
42
21
Lead Matches
20
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.90
13
Trailing Matches
11
38.5%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
23.1%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.79
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.98
Rest days
78.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
24
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.71
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.62
22
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.64
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.76
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.12
0.27
Portability PPG Range
0.27
78.52
Portability Score
80.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO6.21
PPG-0.03
GF-0.32
GA0.08
PPG0.09
PPG0.60
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate0.6%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.32
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.60
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.79
History Matches5
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score-4.06
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.08
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.14
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate29.4%
Trailing Win Rate14.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range0.01
Portability Score-1.77
Rest days-0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.09
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Current Team ELO6.21
Current Opponent ELO-6.21
Current ELO Difference12.41
Expected score0.02
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sleipner

W
Smedby1–5Sleipner18 Oct · away
Pick: Smedby 43% · missed
W
Sleipner7–1Eker Örebro29 Aug · home
Pick: Sleipner 72% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

IFK Luleå

D
IFK Östersund2–2IFK Luleå17 Oct · away
Pick: IFK Östersund 43% · missed
W
Lucksta0–1IFK Luleå30 Aug · away
Pick: IFK Luleå 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sleipner and IFK Luleå meet in Division 2 - Play-offs on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sleipner win 51.9%, draw 21.6%, IFK Luleå win 26.5%. The pick is Sleipner win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.9%. Both teams to score: 61.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.