ScoreProb
USL Super League United States Group Stage 2026

DC Power W vs Lexington W

DC Power W Home · Elo 1,484
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lexington W Away · Elo 1,555
Audi Field Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lexington W win
DC Power W win
23.5%
Draw
28.3%
Lexington W winPick
48.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.7%
No51.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.1%
Under 2.555.9%

How much we know

DC Power W history22 matches
Lexington W history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 2 d 16 h ahead
    4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 00:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.2%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,228 matches.

Why Lexington W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lexington W are rated 71 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,555 against 1,484. On rating alone Lexington W would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.23 goals a game over 22 matches for DC Power W, against 1.33 over 33 for Lexington W.

  • Defences are close

    DC Power W concede 1.14 a game, Lexington W 1.12.

  • Lexington W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    36% of DC Power W matches, against 48% for Lexington W. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
DC Power W
Lexington W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1484.5
ELO
1555.1
22
ELO · Matches
33
1484.5
Current Team ELO
1555.1
1555.1
Current Opponent ELO
1484.5
-70.56
Current ELO Difference
70.56
0.40
Expected score
0.60
22
History Matches
33
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.09
46.90
Overperformance
55.73
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.35
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.60
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
0.80
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
2.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.90
0.70
Goals against per game
0.30
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.30
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.46
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
22
Matches
33
1.09
PPG
1.58
27.3%
Win rate
42.4%
27.3%
Draw rate
30.3%
45.5%
Loss rate
27.3%
59.1%
Over 1.5 rate
78.8%
36.4%
Over 2.5 rate
48.5%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
24.2%
1.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
Venue performance10 signals
100
8
Matches
15
0.63
PPG
1.53
12.5%
Win rate
40.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
62.5%
Loss rate
26.7%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
0.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
8
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.23
Goals for per game
1.33
63.6%
Scoring rate
66.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
42.4%
0.75
Goals for per game
1.20
50.0%
Scoring rate
73.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
3.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
22
History Matches
33
1.23
Goals Mean
1.33
1.20
Goals Std
1.27
63.6%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
36.4%
Scored 2+ rate
42.4%
18.2%
Scored 3+ rate
15.2%
0.75
Venue Goals Mean
1.20
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.14
Goals against per game
1.12
81.8%
Conceding rate
63.6%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.13
100.0%
Conceding rate
73.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
22
History Matches
33
1.14
Conceded Mean
1.12
0.81
Conceded Std
1.12
22.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.3%
9.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.2%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.13
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
22
History Matches
33
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
1.28
Goal Difference Std
1.95
2.87
Stability score
1.70
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
22
Eligible Matches
33
4
Lead Matches
12
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.89
7
Trailing Matches
9
28.6%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
22
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
83.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
7
Normal Rest History Matches
7
1.71
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.14
14
Long Rest History Matches
24
0.79
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.42
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
1
1.50
PPG
3.00
50.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
Current Competition Matches
1
1.50
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.76
0.87
Portability PPG Range
1.51
53.57
Portability Score
39.81
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
22
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-70.56
PPG-0.48
GF-0.11
GA0.02
PPG-1.50
PPG-0.91
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate3.0%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.27
Failed-to-score rate23.3%
History Matches-11
Goals Mean-0.11
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate3.0%
Venue Goals Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.11
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean0.02
Conceded Std-0.31
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.18
History Matches-11
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.67
Stability score1.17
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.16
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate6.3%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.32
Portability PPG Range-0.65
Portability Score13.76
Rest days-6.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Long Rest History Matches-10
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.63
Current Team ELO-70.56
Current Opponent ELO70.56
Current ELO Difference-141.1
Expected score-0.20
History Matches-11
Residual Mean-0.15
Overperformance-8.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

DC Power W

W
Tampa Bay Sun W1–2DC Power W1 Nov · away
Pick: DC Power W 46% · hit
W
DC Power W1–0Dallas Trinity W25 Oct · home
Pick: DC Power W 43% · hit
L
Carolina Ascent W1–0DC Power W16 Oct · away
Pick: Carolina Ascent W 56% · hit
W
Lexington W1–2DC Power W29 Aug · away
Pick: Lexington W 61% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Lexington W

L
Carolina Ascent W1–0Lexington W31 Oct · away
Pick: Lexington W 41% · missed
D
Lexington W3–3Sporting JAX W23 Oct · home
Pick: Lexington W 58% · missed
W
Lexington W2–1Tampa Bay Sun W17 Oct · home
Pick: Lexington W 72% · hit
D
Tampa Bay Sun W1–1Lexington W4 Oct · away
Pick: Lexington W 64% · missed
L
Lexington W1–2DC Power W29 Aug · home
Pick: Lexington W 61% · missed

About this match

DC Power W and Lexington W meet in USL Super League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 00:00 UTC. The match is played at Audi Field. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC: DC Power W win 23.5%, draw 28.3%, Lexington W win 48.2%. The pick is Lexington W win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.1%. Both teams to score: 48.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.