ScoreProb
USL Super League United States Group Stage 2026

Fort Lauderdale United W vs Tampa Bay Sun W

Fort Lauderdale United W Home · Elo 1,439
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tampa Bay Sun W Away · Elo 1,448
FTL UTD Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tampa Bay Sun W win
Fort Lauderdale United W win
33.8%
Draw
23.3%
Tampa Bay Sun W winPick
42.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.4%
No46.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.6%
Under 2.544.4%

How much we know

Fort Lauderdale United W history23 matches
Tampa Bay Sun W history21 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 15 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 00:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.8%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,228 matches.

Why Tampa Bay Sun W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,439 against 1,448. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Tampa Bay Sun W score more

    0.87 goals a game over 23 matches for Fort Lauderdale United W, against 1.10 over 21 for Tampa Bay Sun W.

  • Tampa Bay Sun W concede fewer

    Fort Lauderdale United W concede 2.00 a game, Tampa Bay Sun W 1.76.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Fort Lauderdale United W matches, against 52% for Tampa Bay Sun W. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fort Lauderdale United W
Tampa Bay Sun W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1439.0
ELO
1447.7
23
ELO · Matches
21
1439.0
Current Team ELO
1447.7
1447.7
Current Opponent ELO
1439.0
-8.66
Current ELO Difference
8.66
0.49
Expected score
0.51
23
History Matches
21
-0.15
Residual Mean
-0.12
41.81
Overperformance
43.98
-0.40
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
0.20
0.20
Goals for per game
0.60
2.80
Goals against per game
2.20
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.10
PPG
0.90
0.40
Goals for per game
1.20
2.80
Goals against per game
1.70
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
2.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.75
Overall performance9 signals
90
23
Matches
21
0.91
PPG
0.81
21.7%
Win rate
14.3%
26.1%
Draw rate
38.1%
52.2%
Loss rate
47.6%
87.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.5%
52.2%
Over 2.5 rate
52.4%
34.8%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
Venue performance10 signals
100
9
Matches
10
0.56
PPG
0.90
11.1%
Win rate
20.0%
22.2%
Draw rate
30.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
44.4%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
9
History Matches
10
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.87
Goals for per game
1.10
69.6%
Scoring rate
71.4%
56.5%
BTTS rate
61.9%
0.78
Goals for per game
1.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
70.0%
55.6%
BTTS rate
60.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.50
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
23
History Matches
21
0.87
Goals Mean
1.10
0.68
Goals Std
0.87
69.6%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
17.4%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
4.8%
0.78
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.00
Goals against per game
1.76
87.0%
Conceding rate
90.5%
2.22
Goals against per game
1.70
88.9%
Conceding rate
90.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
23
History Matches
21
2.00
Conceded Mean
1.76
1.41
Conceded Std
1.06
52.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.4%
39.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.6%
2.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.70
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
23
History Matches
21
0.93
Result entropy
0.91
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.52
7.00
Stability score
9.07
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
23
Eligible Matches
21
1
Lead Matches
6
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.61
10
Trailing Matches
6
10.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
23
Halftime Coverage Matches
21
0.26
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.87
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
1.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.10
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
83.04
Rest days
76.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
4
Normal Rest History Matches
7
0.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.71
18
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.85
Competition & season17 signals
170
1
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
1
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.06
0.98
Portability PPG Range
0.12
50.53
Portability Score
89.55
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
23
Clean History Matches
21
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-8.66
PPG0.10
GF-0.23
GA0.24
PPG-0.50
PPG-0.34
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate3.5%
Failed-to-score rate1.9%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Failed-to-score rate3.3%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.23
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.49
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.24
Conceded Std0.35
Clean-sheet rate3.5%
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate10.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches2
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.28
Stability score-2.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.55
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate50.0%
Lead Points Retention0.39
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate10.0%
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.43
Portability PPG Range0.86
Portability Score-39.03
Rest days6.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.15
Current Team ELO-8.66
Current Opponent ELO8.66
Current ELO Difference-17.33
Expected score-0.02
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.33

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Fort Lauderdale United W

L
Dallas Trinity W3–0Fort Lauderdale United W1 Nov · away
Pick: Dallas Trinity W 55% · hit
D
Fort Lauderdale United W0–0Carolina Ascent W22 Oct · home
Pick: Carolina Ascent W 73% · missed
L
Sporting JAX W4–1Fort Lauderdale United W16 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting JAX W 70% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Tampa Bay Sun W

L
Tampa Bay Sun W1–2DC Power W1 Nov · home
Pick: DC Power W 46% · hit
L
Brooklyn W1–0Tampa Bay Sun W24 Oct · away
Pick: Tampa Bay Sun W 51% · missed
L
Lexington W2–1Tampa Bay Sun W17 Oct · away
Pick: Lexington W 72% · hit
D
Tampa Bay Sun W1–1Lexington W4 Oct · home
Pick: Lexington W 64% · missed
W
Carolina Ascent W1–2Tampa Bay Sun W29 Aug · away
Pick: Carolina Ascent W 65% · missed

About this match

Fort Lauderdale United W and Tampa Bay Sun W meet in USL Super League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 00:30 UTC. The match is played at FTL UTD Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Fort Lauderdale United W win 33.8%, draw 23.3%, Tampa Bay Sun W win 42.8%. The pick is Tampa Bay Sun W win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.6%. Both teams to score: 53.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.