ScoreProb
Major League Soccer United States Round 34 2026

DC United vs New York City FC

DC United Home · Elo 1,463
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
New York City FC Away · Elo 1,516
Audi Field, Washington Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: New York City FC win
DC United win
32.1%
Draw
24.2%
New York City FC winPick
43.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.8%
No44.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.3%
Under 2.545.7%

How much we know

DC United history33 matches
New York City FC history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why New York City FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • New York City FC are rated 54 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,516 against 1,463. On rating alone New York City FC would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • New York City FC score more

    1.18 goals a game over 33 matches for DC United, against 1.51 over 45 for New York City FC.

  • New York City FC concede fewer

    DC United concede 1.88 a game, New York City FC 1.13.

  • DC United games more often go over 2.5 goals

    61% of DC United matches, against 51% for New York City FC. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
DC United
New York City FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1462.7
ELO
1516.4
33
ELO · Matches
45
1462.7
Current Team ELO
1516.4
1516.4
Current Opponent ELO
1462.7
-53.68
Current ELO Difference
53.68
0.42
Expected score
0.58
33
History Matches
45
-0.08
Residual Mean
0.00
45.33
Overperformance
50.14
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.10
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
2.10
Goals against per game
1.50
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.67
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.81
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.18
Overall performance9 signals
90
33
Matches
45
1.00
PPG
1.60
21.2%
Win rate
46.7%
36.4%
Draw rate
20.0%
42.4%
Loss rate
33.3%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
60.6%
Over 2.5 rate
51.1%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
13
Matches
26
1.15
PPG
1.54
23.1%
Win rate
42.3%
46.2%
Draw rate
26.9%
30.8%
Loss rate
30.8%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
30.8%
Over 3.5 rate
19.2%
1.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.07
13
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.18
Goals for per game
1.51
72.7%
Scoring rate
84.4%
66.7%
BTTS rate
57.8%
1.31
Goals for per game
1.35
76.9%
Scoring rate
84.6%
69.2%
BTTS rate
65.4%
1.31
Goals for per game
1.59
81.3%
Scoring rate
88.2%
68.8%
BTTS rate
70.6%
33
History Matches
45
1.18
Goals Mean
1.51
0.97
Goals Std
1.09
72.7%
Scored 1+ rate
84.4%
36.4%
Scored 2+ rate
44.4%
6.1%
Scored 3+ rate
15.6%
1.31
Venue Goals Mean
1.35
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.88
Goals against per game
1.13
84.8%
Conceding rate
71.1%
1.62
Goals against per game
1.15
84.6%
Conceding rate
80.8%
1.56
Goals against per game
1.29
81.3%
Conceding rate
82.4%
33
History Matches
45
1.88
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.47
Conceded Std
0.93
51.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
27.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.9%
1.62
Venue Conceded Mean
1.15
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.6%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.6%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
33
History Matches
45
0.97
Result entropy
0.95
1.62
Goal Difference Std
1.51
3.47
Stability score
4.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
32
Eligible Matches
45
10
Lead Matches
15
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.60
Lead Points Retention
0.82
10
Trailing Matches
11
20.0%
Non-loss rate
54.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
27.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
32
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
1.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
76.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.75
10
Normal Rest History Matches
21
0.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
18
Long Rest History Matches
19
0.89
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.89
Competition & season17 signals
170
16
Matches
17
1.19
PPG
1.29
25.0%
Win rate
35.3%
43.8%
Draw rate
23.5%
31.3%
Loss rate
41.2%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
88.2%
56.3%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
16
Current Competition Matches
17
1.19
Current Competition PPG
1.29
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.29
5
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.48
1.15
Portability PPG Range
1.18
51.57
Portability Score
50.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
33
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-53.68
PPG-0.60
GF-0.33
GA0.75
PPG-0.11
PPG-0.38
PPG0.80
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate11.7%
History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate7.7%
History Matches-12
Goals Mean-0.33
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.35
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean0.75
Conceded Std0.54
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate18.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.24
History Matches-12
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score-1.53
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.02
Eligible Matches-13
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.30
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.35
Trailing Win Rate-0.27
Halftime Coverage Matches-13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.57
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.11
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.54
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.03
Portability Score0.66
Rest days0.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.73
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.01
Current Team ELO-53.68
Current Opponent ELO53.68
Current ELO Difference-107.4
Expected score-0.15
History Matches-12
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-4.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

DC United

L
Columbus Crew3–0DC United31 Oct · away
Pick: Columbus Crew 42% · hit
L
Toronto FC2–1DC United28 Oct · away
Pick: Toronto FC 44% · hit
L
DC United0–2FC Cincinnati24 Oct · home
Pick: FC Cincinnati 47% · hit
L
FC Cincinnati2–1DC United21 Oct · away
Pick: FC Cincinnati 58% · hit
L
Orlando City SC4–1DC United17 Oct · away
Pick: Orlando City SC 46% · hit

New York City FC

D
New York City FC1–1CF Montreal31 Oct · home
Pick: New York City FC 57% · missed
W
New York City FC2–1Atlanta United FC28 Oct · home
Pick: New York City FC 55% · hit
D
Orlando City SC2–2New York City FC24 Oct · away
Pick: New York City FC 44% · missed
D
New York City FC1–1Los Angeles FC17 Oct · home
Pick: Los Angeles FC 47% · missed
L
Inter Miami2–0New York City FC14 Oct · away
Pick: Inter Miami 56% · hit

About this match

DC United and New York City FC meet in Major League Soccer on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Audi Field, Washington. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: DC United win 32.1%, draw 24.2%, New York City FC win 43.7%. The pick is New York City FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.3%. Both teams to score: 55.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.