ScoreProb
Major League Soccer United States Round 34 2026

CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps

CF Montreal Home · Elo 1,456
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vancouver Whitecaps Away · Elo 1,583
Saputo Stadium, Montreal Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vancouver Whitecaps win
CF Montreal win
21.1%
Draw
25.5%
Vancouver Whitecaps winPick
53.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.2%
No46.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.0%
Under 2.542.0%

How much we know

CF Montreal history35 matches
Vancouver Whitecaps history81 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Vancouver Whitecaps are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Vancouver Whitecaps are rated 127 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,583 against 1,456. On rating alone Vancouver Whitecaps would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Vancouver Whitecaps score more

    1.29 goals a game over 35 matches for CF Montreal, against 1.81 over 81 for Vancouver Whitecaps.

  • Vancouver Whitecaps concede fewer

    CF Montreal concede 1.89 a game, Vancouver Whitecaps 1.17.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of CF Montreal matches, against 56% for Vancouver Whitecaps. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
CF Montreal
Vancouver Whitecaps
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1455.8
ELO
1582.9
35
ELO · Matches
81
1455.8
Current Team ELO
1582.9
1582.9
Current Opponent ELO
1455.8
-127.1
Current ELO Difference
127.1
0.32
Expected score
0.68
35
History Matches
81
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.05
45.71
Overperformance
53.62
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.30
1.50
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.60
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
0.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.01
Overall performance9 signals
90
35
Matches
81
0.91
PPG
1.70
22.9%
Win rate
46.9%
22.9%
Draw rate
29.6%
54.3%
Loss rate
23.5%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.0%
62.9%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
34.3%
Over 3.5 rate
35.8%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
42
1.13
PPG
1.48
25.0%
Win rate
35.7%
37.5%
Draw rate
40.5%
37.5%
Loss rate
23.8%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.4%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
16
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.29
Goals for per game
1.81
65.7%
Scoring rate
81.5%
57.1%
BTTS rate
54.3%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.52
75.0%
Scoring rate
76.2%
62.5%
BTTS rate
59.5%
1.42
Goals for per game
2.39
63.2%
Scoring rate
83.3%
47.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
35
History Matches
81
1.29
Goals Mean
1.81
1.18
Goals Std
1.45
65.7%
Scored 1+ rate
81.5%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
51.9%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
29.6%
1.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.52
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.89
Goals against per game
1.17
88.6%
Conceding rate
65.4%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.31
81.3%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.79
Goals against per game
0.94
78.9%
Conceding rate
61.1%
35
History Matches
81
1.89
Conceded Mean
1.17
1.39
Conceded Std
1.16
51.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.6%
28.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.1%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.31
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
11.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
34.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
36.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
11.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
34.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
11.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
35
History Matches
81
0.92
Result entropy
0.96
1.81
Goal Difference Std
1.99
8.40
Stability score
3.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
35
Eligible Matches
81
8
Lead Matches
30
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.58
Lead Points Retention
0.87
12
Trailing Matches
22
25.0%
Non-loss rate
45.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
35
Halftime Coverage Matches
81
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
1.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
76.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
16
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.81
13
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.23
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.86
18
Long Rest History Matches
20
0.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.30
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
18
1.11
PPG
2.06
26.3%
Win rate
61.1%
31.6%
Draw rate
22.2%
42.1%
Loss rate
16.7%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
63.2%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
36.8%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
19
Current Competition Matches
18
1.11
Current Competition PPG
2.06
-0.37
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.44
6
Competition Season Count
9
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.68
0.55
Portability PPG Range
2.00
64.53
Portability Score
42.26
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
35
Clean History Matches
81
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-127.1
PPG-0.79
GF-0.53
GA0.71
PPG-0.95
PPG-0.35
PPG-0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-46
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate15.8%
History Matches-26
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate1.2%
History Matches-46
Goals Mean-0.53
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.40
History Matches-46
Conceded Mean0.71
Conceded Std0.23
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Conceded 2+ rate16.9%
Conceded 3+ rate17.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.23
History Matches-46
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.18
Stability score4.49
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.31
Eligible Matches-46
Lead Matches-22
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.28
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-46
First Half Goals For Mean-0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.61
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.95
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.81
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-6
Portability PPG Std-0.41
Portability PPG Range-1.45
Portability Score22.27
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-13
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.48
Normal Rest History Matches-31
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.63
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.47
Current Team ELO-127.1
Current Opponent ELO127.1
Current ELO Difference-254.2
Expected score-0.35
History Matches-46
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-7.90
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

CF Montreal

D
New York City FC1–1CF Montreal31 Oct · away
Pick: New York City FC 57% · missed
L
Charlotte4–0CF Montreal28 Oct · away
Pick: Charlotte 59% · hit
L
CF Montreal0–2Nashville SC24 Oct · home
Pick: Nashville SC 56% · hit
D
Seattle Sounders1–1CF Montreal18 Oct · away
Pick: Seattle Sounders 61% · missed
L
CF Montreal0–3Atlanta United FC14 Oct · home
Pick: CF Montreal 44% · missed

Vancouver Whitecaps

W
Vancouver Whitecaps4–1San Diego29 Oct · home
Pick: Vancouver Whitecaps 59% · hit
W
Austin1–2Vancouver Whitecaps18 Oct · away
Pick: Vancouver Whitecaps 52% · hit
D
St. Louis City0–0Vancouver Whitecaps15 Oct · away
Pick: Vancouver Whitecaps 52% · missed
L
Chicago Fire3–1Vancouver Whitecaps7 Oct · away
Pick: Vancouver Whitecaps 47% · missed
W
Sporting Kansas City0–3Vancouver Whitecaps30 Aug · away
Pick: Vancouver Whitecaps 74% · hit

About this match

CF Montreal and Vancouver Whitecaps meet in Major League Soccer on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Saputo Stadium, Montreal. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: CF Montreal win 21.1%, draw 25.5%, Vancouver Whitecaps win 53.3%. The pick is Vancouver Whitecaps win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.0%. Both teams to score: 53.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.