ScoreProb
Second Amateur Division - VFV B Belgium VFV B - 11 2026

De Kempen vs Tongeren

De Kempen Home · Elo 1,490
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tongeren Away · Elo 1,452
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tongeren win
De Kempen win
33.6%
Draw
23.7%
Tongeren winPick
42.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.3%
No41.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.573.8%
Under 2.526.2%

How much we know

De Kempen history2 matches
Tongeren history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Tongeren are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • De Kempen are rated 38 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,490 against 1,452. On rating alone De Kempen would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • De Kempen score far more

    2.00 goals a game over 2 matches for De Kempen, against 1.10 over 40 for Tongeren.

  • Tongeren concede fewer

    De Kempen concede 3.00 a game, Tongeren 1.98.

  • De Kempen games more often go over 2.5 goals

    100% of De Kempen matches, against 53% for Tongeren. The model puts this match at 74% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
De Kempen
Tongeren
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1490.2
ELO
1452.0
2
ELO · Matches
40
1490.2
Current Team ELO
1452.0
1452.0
Current Opponent ELO
1490.2
38.16
Current ELO Difference
-38.16
0.55
Expected score
0.45
2
History Matches
40
-0.25
Residual Mean
-0.06
47.77
Overperformance
45.75
-0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
2
Matches
5
0.50
PPG
1.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
3.00
Goals against per game
2.80
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
3.00
Goals against per game
2.40
0.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.66
3.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.87
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
2
Matches
40
0.50
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.5%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
42.5%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.98
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
21
0.00
PPG
0.90
0.0%
Win rate
14.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
47.6%
100.0%
Loss rate
38.1%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.9%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
52.4%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.37
1
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.00
Goals for per game
1.10
100.0%
Scoring rate
57.5%
100.0%
BTTS rate
42.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.38
100.0%
Scoring rate
76.2%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
2
History Matches
40
2.00
Goals Mean
1.10
1.00
Goals Std
1.41
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
57.5%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
50.0%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
3.00
Goals against per game
1.98
100.0%
Conceding rate
72.5%
3.00
Goals against per game
2.10
100.0%
Conceding rate
90.5%
2
History Matches
40
3.00
Conceded Mean
1.98
0.00
Conceded Std
2.21
100.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
100.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.5%
3.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.10
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
2
History Matches
40
0.63
Result entropy
0.96
1.00
Goal Difference Std
2.98
36.91
Stability score
3.98
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
0
Eligible Matches
28
0
Lead Matches
8
—
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.75
0
Trailing Matches
10
—
Non-loss rate
30.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
28
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.29
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
609.0
Rest days
105.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
1
Normal Rest History Matches
22
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.91
0
Long Rest History Matches
17
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
3
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.16
—
Portability PPG Range
0.32
—
Portability Score
75.63
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
2
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO38.16
PPG-0.50
GF0.90
GA1.03
PPG-0.90
PPG-0.50
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-38
Clean-sheet rate-0.28
Failed-to-score rate-0.43
History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches-38
Goals Mean0.90
Goals Std-0.41
Scored 1+ rate42.5%
Scored 2+ rate25.0%
Scored 3+ rate37.5%
Venue Goals Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.66
History Matches-38
Conceded Mean1.03
Conceded Std-2.21
Clean-sheet rate-0.28
Conceded 2+ rate60.0%
Conceded 3+ rate67.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-2.87
History Matches-38
Result entropy-0.33
Goal Difference Std-1.98
Stability score32.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-2.95
Eligible Matches-28
Lead Matches-8
Trailing Matches-10
Halftime Coverage Matches-28
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days503.9
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-21
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.91
Long Rest History Matches-17
Current Team ELO38.16
Current Opponent ELO-38.16
Current ELO Difference76.32
Expected score0.11
History Matches-38
Residual Mean-0.18
Overperformance2.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

De Kempen

L
Royal Antwerp II7–0De Kempen31 Oct · away
Pick: Royal Antwerp II 66% · hit
L
De Kempen0–1Eendracht Termien24 Oct · home
Pick: Eendracht Termien 54% · hit
L
Tempo Overijse2–0De Kempen17 Oct · away
Pick: Tempo Overijse 46% · hit
D
Cappellen3–3De Kempen29 Aug · away
Pick: Cappellen 60% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Tongeren

L
Tongeren3–4Rotselaar31 Oct · home
Pick: Tongeren 47% · missed
L
Sint-Truiden II7–5Tongeren25 Oct · away
Pick: Sint-Truiden II 48% · hit
L
Racing Mechelen4–1Tongeren17 Oct · away
Pick: Racing Mechelen 46% · hit
L
Diegem Sport1–0Tongeren4 Oct · away
Pick: Diegem Sport 54% · hit
D
Bocholt2–2Tongeren29 Aug · away
Pick: Tongeren 41% · missed

About this match

De Kempen and Tongeren meet in Second Amateur Division - VFV B on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: De Kempen win 33.6%, draw 23.7%, Tongeren win 42.7%. The pick is Tongeren win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.8%. Both teams to score: 58.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.