ScoreProb
Eerste Divisie Netherlands Round 14 2026

Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht

Den Bosch Home · Elo 1,491
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Jong Utrecht Away · Elo 1,407
De Vliert Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Den Bosch win
Den Bosch winPick
67.3%
Draw
16.2%
Jong Utrecht win
16.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.9%
No40.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.4%
Under 2.530.6%

How much we know

Den Bosch history72 matches
Jong Utrecht history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (67.3%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Den Bosch are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Den Bosch are rated 84 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,491 against 1,407. On rating alone Den Bosch would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Den Bosch score more

    1.57 goals a game over 72 matches for Den Bosch, against 1.27 over 60 for Jong Utrecht.

  • Den Bosch concede fewer

    Den Bosch concede 1.65 a game, Jong Utrecht 2.02.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Den Bosch matches, against 63% for Jong Utrecht. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Den Bosch
Jong Utrecht
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1491.0
ELO
1407.3
72
ELO · Matches
60
1491.0
Current Team ELO
1407.3
1407.3
Current Opponent ELO
1491.0
83.77
Current ELO Difference
-83.77
0.62
Expected score
0.38
72
History Matches
60
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.08
50.31
Overperformance
44.14
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.00
2.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
3.60
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.70
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.70
Goals against per game
2.50
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.86
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.81
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
60
1.33
PPG
0.97
36.1%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
21.7%
38.9%
Loss rate
53.3%
80.6%
Over 1.5 rate
81.7%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
63.3%
43.1%
Over 3.5 rate
45.0%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
31
1.70
PPG
0.74
47.5%
Win rate
19.4%
27.5%
Draw rate
16.1%
25.0%
Loss rate
64.5%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.6%
57.5%
Over 2.5 rate
61.3%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
41.9%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
40
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.57
Goals for per game
1.27
79.2%
Scoring rate
73.3%
65.3%
BTTS rate
61.7%
1.83
Goals for per game
0.97
87.5%
Scoring rate
64.5%
65.0%
BTTS rate
54.8%
2.67
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
72
History Matches
60
1.57
Goals Mean
1.27
1.27
Goals Std
1.14
79.2%
Scored 1+ rate
73.3%
47.2%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
18.1%
Scored 3+ rate
13.3%
1.83
Venue Goals Mean
0.97
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.65
Goals against per game
2.02
79.2%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.35
Goals against per game
2.19
72.5%
Conceding rate
90.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
3.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
72
History Matches
60
1.65
Conceded Mean
2.02
1.28
Conceded Std
1.50
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.0%
26.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
35.0%
1.35
Venue Conceded Mean
2.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
9.7%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
9.7%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
60
0.98
Result entropy
0.92
1.76
Goal Difference Std
1.92
1.54
Stability score
7.77
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
60
21
Lead Matches
16
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.56
21
Trailing Matches
26
23.8%
Non-loss rate
26.9%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.10
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.90
Rest days
74.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.30
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.25
44
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.14
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
17
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
0.00
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.67
8
Competition Season Count
5
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.51
1.41
Portability PPG Range
1.24
50.42
Portability Score
49.59
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO83.77
PPG0.37
GF0.30
GA-0.36
PPG1.33
PPG0.96
PPG2.00
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate17.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches12
Goals Mean0.30
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate5.8%
Scored 2+ rate13.9%
Scored 3+ rate4.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.86
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.65
History Matches12
Conceded Mean-0.36
Conceded Std-0.22
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.84
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.67
History Matches12
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score-6.23
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.55
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate16.7%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.33
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range0.17
Portability Score0.83
Rest days3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.05
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.90
Current Team ELO83.77
Current Opponent ELO-83.77
Current ELO Difference167.5
Expected score0.24
History Matches12
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance6.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Den Bosch

W
Rijnsburgse Boys3–5Den Bosch27 Oct · away
Pick: Den Bosch 42% · hit
D
Den Bosch2–2MVV23 Oct · home
Pick: Den Bosch 51% · missed
W
Den Bosch2–1FC OSS16 Oct · home
Pick: Den Bosch 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Jong Utrecht

W
Jong Utrecht3–2Dordrecht2 Nov · home
Pick: Dordrecht 48% · missed
L
FC Volendam6–2Jong Utrecht23 Oct · away
Pick: FC Volendam 59% · hit
L
Jong Utrecht1–2Roda19 Oct · home
Pick: Roda 60% · hit
L
Jong AZ2–1Jong Utrecht31 Aug · away
Pick: Jong AZ 64% · hit
L
Jong Utrecht1–6Heracles24 Aug · home
Pick: Heracles 43% · hit

About this match

Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht meet in Eerste Divisie on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. The match is played at De Vliert. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Den Bosch win 67.3%, draw 16.2%, Jong Utrecht win 16.6%. The pick is Den Bosch win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.4%. Both teams to score: 59.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.