Deportiva Minera vs FC Cartagena
Match result probability Model pick: Deportiva Minera win
Deportiva Minera winPick
39.9%
Draw
29.9%
FC Cartagena win
30.3%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes48.4%
No51.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.549.6%
Under 2.550.4%
How much we know
Deportiva Minera history56 matches
FC Cartagena history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 11 h ahead30 Oct · 08:13 UTC
- Re-published 12 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 19:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Deportiva Minera are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Deportiva Minera are rated 77 Elo points higher
Elo 1,576 against 1,499. On rating alone Deportiva Minera would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.
-
Deportiva Minera score more
1.32 goals a game over 56 matches for Deportiva Minera, against 0.98 over 62 for FC Cartagena.
-
Deportiva Minera concede fewer
Deportiva Minera concede 1.07 a game, FC Cartagena 1.32.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
43% of Deportiva Minera matches, against 45% for FC Cartagena. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 19 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Cartagena@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1576.1
ELO
1499.4
56
ELO · Matches
62
1576.1
Current Team ELO
1499.4
1499.4
Current Opponent ELO
1576.1
76.68
Current ELO Difference
-76.68
0.61
Expected score
0.39
56
History Matches
62
0.07
Residual Mean
0.00
55.51
Overperformance
50.20
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
0.20
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.40
1.30
Goals for per game
1.30
0.70
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.58
Overall performance9 signals 90
56
Matches
62
1.59
PPG
1.16
46.4%
Win rate
30.6%
19.6%
Draw rate
24.2%
33.9%
Loss rate
45.2%
64.3%
Over 1.5 rate
62.9%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
45.2%
23.2%
Over 3.5 rate
22.6%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
Venue performance10 signals 100
30
Matches
31
2.03
PPG
0.74
60.0%
Win rate
16.1%
23.3%
Draw rate
25.8%
16.7%
Loss rate
58.1%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.0%
36.7%
Over 2.5 rate
48.4%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
22.6%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
30
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.32
Goals for per game
0.98
71.4%
Scoring rate
61.3%
41.1%
BTTS rate
40.3%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.77
80.0%
Scoring rate
54.8%
33.3%
BTTS rate
45.2%
56
History Matches
62
1.32
Goals Mean
0.98
1.17
Goals Std
0.94
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
61.3%
41.1%
Scored 2+ rate
30.6%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
6.5%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
0.77
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.07
Goals against per game
1.32
60.7%
Conceding rate
66.1%
0.63
Goals against per game
1.65
43.3%
Conceding rate
74.2%
56
History Matches
62
1.07
Conceded Mean
1.32
1.13
Conceded Std
1.20
30.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.2%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.1%
0.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.65
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
56.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
45.2%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
56.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
45.2%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
56
History Matches
62
0.95
Result entropy
0.97
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.46
5.09
Stability score
3.08
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
56
Eligible Matches
62
15
Lead Matches
14
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
64.3%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.69
12
Trailing Matches
16
25.0%
Non-loss rate
6.3%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
80.50
Rest days
77.48
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
38
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.66
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.26
15
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.10
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.43
0.92
Portability PPG Range
1.06
55.74
Portability Score
53.70
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
56
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO76.68
PPG0.43
GF0.34
GA-0.25
PPG1.29
PPG1.20
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate5.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate30.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.34
Goals Std0.22
Scored 1+ rate10.1%
Scored 2+ rate10.4%
Scored 3+ rate6.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.73
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.29
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean-0.25
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate5.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-1.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches-6
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.18
Stability score2.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.56
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate22.4%
Lead Points Retention0.20
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate18.8%
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.14
Portability Score2.05
Rest days3.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match2.50
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.39
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.17
Current Team ELO76.68
Current Opponent ELO-76.68
Current ELO Difference153.4
Expected score0.22
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Deportiva Minera
W
Cieza0–1Deportiva Minera1 Nov · away
Pick: Cieza 45% · missed W
Deportiva Minera2–0Yeclano24 Oct · home
Pick: Deportiva Minera 58% · hit W
Deportiva Minera2–0La Nucía4 Oct · home
Pick: Deportiva Minera 39% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
FC Cartagena
L
Real Madrid II2–0FC Cartagena31 Oct · away
Pick: Real Madrid II 53% · hit L
Villarreal II4–1FC Cartagena25 Oct · away
Pick: Villarreal II 49% · hit W
FC Cartagena3–0Europa Fc16 Oct · home
Pick: Europa Fc 40% · missed W
FC Cartagena1–0Real Murcia7 Oct · home
Pick: Real Murcia 44% · missed W
Algeciras1–3FC Cartagena29 Aug · away
Pick: Algeciras 36% · missed About this match
Deportiva Minera and FC Cartagena were due to play in Copa del Rey on Wednesday 4 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.