ScoreProb
Segunda División Venezuela Quarter-finals 2026

Deportivo Lara vs Zamora FC B

Deportivo Lara Home · Elo 1,524
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Zamora FC B Away · Elo 1,489
Estadio Metropolitano de Cabudare, Barquisimeto Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Deportivo Lara win
Deportivo Lara winPick
55.4%
Draw
19.7%
Zamora FC B win
25.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.5%
No43.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.4%
Under 2.540.6%

How much we know

Deportivo Lara history21 matches
Zamora FC B history21 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 13 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 22:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Deportivo Lara are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Deportivo Lara are rated 35 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,524 against 1,489. On rating alone Deportivo Lara would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.67 goals a game over 21 matches for Deportivo Lara, against 1.52 over 21 for Zamora FC B.

  • Deportivo Lara concede fewer

    Deportivo Lara concede 1.05 a game, Zamora FC B 1.48.

  • Zamora FC B games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of Deportivo Lara matches, against 67% for Zamora FC B. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Deportivo Lara
Zamora FC B@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1524.0
ELO
1489.4
21
ELO · Matches
21
1524.0
Current Team ELO
1489.4
1489.4
Current Opponent ELO
1524.0
34.57
Current ELO Difference
-34.57
0.55
Expected score
0.45
21
History Matches
21
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.03
52.58
Overperformance
48.40
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.30
Goals against per game
1.80
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.26
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals
90
21
Matches
21
1.81
PPG
1.33
52.4%
Win rate
33.3%
23.8%
Draw rate
33.3%
23.8%
Loss rate
33.3%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
90.5%
52.4%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
38.1%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
Venue performance10 signals
100
10
Matches
11
2.00
PPG
1.36
60.0%
Win rate
36.4%
20.0%
Draw rate
27.3%
20.0%
Loss rate
36.4%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
72.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
10
History Matches
11
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
1.52
90.5%
Scoring rate
85.7%
57.1%
BTTS rate
76.2%
2.10
Goals for per game
1.64
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
90.9%
1.79
Goals for per game
1.52
94.7%
Scoring rate
85.7%
57.9%
BTTS rate
76.2%
21
History Matches
21
1.67
Goals Mean
1.52
1.08
Goals Std
0.96
90.5%
Scored 1+ rate
85.7%
47.6%
Scored 2+ rate
47.6%
19.0%
Scored 3+ rate
19.0%
2.10
Venue Goals Mean
1.64
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.05
Goals against per game
1.48
61.9%
Conceding rate
81.0%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.64
60.0%
Conceding rate
90.9%
0.95
Goals against per game
1.48
57.9%
Conceding rate
81.0%
21
History Matches
21
1.05
Conceded Mean
1.48
1.05
Conceded Std
0.96
28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
57.1%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.8%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
1.64
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
5.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
21
History Matches
21
0.93
Result entropy
1.00
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.33
6.97
Stability score
0.00
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
21
Eligible Matches
21
7
Lead Matches
5
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.73
4
Trailing Matches
10
50.0%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
21
Halftime Coverage Matches
21
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
1.19
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.04
Rest days
78.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
10
Normal Rest History Matches
15
1.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.53
9
Long Rest History Matches
5
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.80
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
19
Matches
21
2.00
PPG
1.33
57.9%
Win rate
33.3%
26.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
15.8%
Loss rate
33.3%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
90.5%
52.6%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
36.8%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
19
Current Competition Matches
21
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
0.84
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.05
2
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
21
Clean History Matches
21
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO34.57
PPG0.48
GF0.14
GA-0.43
PPG0.67
PPG0.64
PPG0.60
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate19.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate30.9%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.14
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate4.8%
Scored 2+ rate0.0%
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.35
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.43
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate19.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.29
Conceded 3+ rate9.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score6.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.38
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate25.7%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate20.0%
Trailing Win Rate15.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.79
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.27
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.76
Current Team ELO34.57
Current Opponent ELO-34.57
Current ELO Difference69.13
Expected score0.10
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance4.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Deportivo Lara

L
Puerto Cabello II2–1Deportivo Lara4 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Lara 36% · missed
D
Trujillanos FC0–0Deportivo Lara26 Aug · away
Pick: Trujillanos FC 59% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Zamora FC B

L
Zamora FC B1–4Yaracuyanos FC4 Oct · home
Pick: Zamora FC B 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Deportivo Lara and Zamora FC B meet in Segunda División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 22:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Metropolitano de Cabudare, Barquisimeto. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Deportivo Lara win 55.4%, draw 19.7%, Zamora FC B win 25.0%. The pick is Deportivo Lara win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.4%. Both teams to score: 56.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.