ScoreProb
Segunda División Venezuela Quarter-finals 2026

Monagas II vs Urena SC

Monagas II Home · Elo 1,528
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Urena SC Away · Elo 1,522
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Monagas II win
Monagas II winPick
38.8%
Draw
27.6%
Urena SC win
33.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.4%
No45.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.6%
Under 2.546.4%

How much we know

Monagas II history43 matches
Urena SC history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Monagas II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,528 against 1,522. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Monagas II score more

    1.40 goals a game over 43 matches for Monagas II, against 1.24 over 55 for Urena SC.

  • Defences are close

    Monagas II concede 1.53 a game, Urena SC 1.47.

  • Monagas II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    65% of Monagas II matches, against 49% for Urena SC. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Monagas II
Urena SC@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1527.6
ELO
1521.7
43
ELO · Matches
55
1527.6
Current Team ELO
1521.7
1521.7
Current Opponent ELO
1527.6
5.84
Current ELO Difference
-5.84
0.51
Expected score
0.49
43
History Matches
55
0.03
Residual Mean
0.02
52.14
Overperformance
51.46
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
2.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.90
1.30
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
55
1.37
PPG
1.24
39.5%
Win rate
29.1%
18.6%
Draw rate
36.4%
41.9%
Loss rate
34.5%
79.1%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
65.1%
Over 2.5 rate
49.1%
25.6%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
28
1.52
PPG
1.21
47.6%
Win rate
28.6%
9.5%
Draw rate
35.7%
42.9%
Loss rate
35.7%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
92.9%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
64.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
46.4%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
21
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.40
Goals for per game
1.24
86.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
65.1%
BTTS rate
63.6%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.57
81.0%
Scoring rate
85.7%
52.4%
BTTS rate
75.0%
1.61
Goals for per game
1.62
88.9%
Scoring rate
85.7%
55.6%
BTTS rate
66.7%
43
History Matches
55
1.40
Goals Mean
1.24
0.87
Goals Std
1.01
86.0%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
41.9%
Scored 2+ rate
29.1%
11.6%
Scored 3+ rate
9.1%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.57
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.53
Goals against per game
1.47
76.7%
Conceding rate
78.2%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.75
71.4%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.06
Goals against per game
0.95
61.1%
Conceding rate
71.4%
43
History Matches
55
1.53
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.35
Conceded Std
1.13
48.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.5%
14.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
14.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
14.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
55
0.95
Result entropy
1.00
1.61
Goal Difference Std
1.54
4.94
Stability score
0.40
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
55
15
Lead Matches
12
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.56
13
Trailing Matches
18
30.8%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.00
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.61
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.21
19
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.16
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.57
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
21
1.89
PPG
1.86
55.6%
Win rate
47.6%
22.2%
Draw rate
42.9%
22.2%
Loss rate
9.5%
72.2%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
61.1%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
19.0%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
18
Current Competition Matches
21
1.89
Current Competition PPG
1.86
0.56
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
2
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.76
0.89
Portability PPG Range
1.86
52.94
Portability Score
39.73
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO5.84
PPG0.14
GF0.16
GA0.06
PPG0.03
PPG0.31
PPG0.60
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate1.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Failed-to-score rate4.8%
History Matches-12
Goals Mean0.16
Goals Std-0.14
Scored 1+ rate6.0%
Scored 2+ rate12.8%
Scored 3+ rate2.5%
Venue Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.77
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean0.06
Conceded Std0.23
Clean-sheet rate1.4%
Conceded 2+ rate3.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches-12
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.07
Stability score4.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.10
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate16.7%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate9.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches-3
Current Competition PPG0.03
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.11
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.31
Portability PPG Range-0.97
Portability Score13.21
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.40
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Current Team ELO5.84
Current Opponent ELO-5.84
Current ELO Difference11.68
Expected score0.02
History Matches-12
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.68
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Monagas II

L
Bolívar2–1Monagas II4 Oct · away
Pick: Bolívar 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Urena SC

D
Urena SC2–2Trujillanos FC7 Oct · home
Pick: Urena SC 43% · missed
D
Urena SC0–0Club Atletico Barinas4 Oct · home
Pick: Urena SC 64% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Monagas II and Urena SC meet in Segunda División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Monagas II win 38.8%, draw 27.6%, Urena SC win 33.6%. The pick is Monagas II win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.6%. Both teams to score: 54.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.