ScoreProb
Primera División Costa Rica Round 16 2026

Deportivo Saprissa vs Puntarenas FC

Deportivo Saprissa Home · Elo 1,636
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Puntarenas FC Away · Elo 1,491
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Deportivo Saprissa win
Deportivo Saprissa winPick
66.5%
Draw
19.5%
Puntarenas FC win
14.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.6%
No50.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.0%
Under 2.547.0%

How much we know

Deportivo Saprissa history78 matches
Puntarenas FC history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 13 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 22:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (66.5%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Deportivo Saprissa are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Deportivo Saprissa are rated 145 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,636 against 1,491. On rating alone Deportivo Saprissa would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Deportivo Saprissa score more

    1.74 goals a game over 78 matches for Deportivo Saprissa, against 1.16 over 56 for Puntarenas FC.

  • Defences are close

    Deportivo Saprissa concede 1.08 a game, Puntarenas FC 1.04.

  • Deportivo Saprissa games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of Deportivo Saprissa matches, against 39% for Puntarenas FC. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Deportivo Saprissa
Puntarenas FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1635.7
ELO
1490.6
78
ELO · Matches
56
1635.7
Current Team ELO
1490.6
1490.6
Current Opponent ELO
1635.7
145.2
Current ELO Difference
-145.2
0.70
Expected score
0.30
78
History Matches
56
0.08
Residual Mean
-0.01
56.39
Overperformance
48.90
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.00
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
0.80
1.90
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.80
70.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.51
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.33
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
78
Matches
56
1.81
PPG
1.29
53.8%
Win rate
28.6%
19.2%
Draw rate
42.9%
26.9%
Loss rate
28.6%
80.8%
Over 1.5 rate
64.3%
56.4%
Over 2.5 rate
39.3%
28.2%
Over 3.5 rate
17.9%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.27
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
30
2.27
PPG
0.93
67.6%
Win rate
13.3%
24.3%
Draw rate
53.3%
8.1%
Loss rate
33.3%
83.8%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
64.9%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
29.7%
Over 3.5 rate
23.3%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.98
37
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.74
Goals for per game
1.16
78.2%
Scoring rate
71.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
53.6%
2.24
Goals for per game
1.10
89.2%
Scoring rate
70.0%
51.4%
BTTS rate
66.7%
2.40
Goals for per game
0.80
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
78
History Matches
56
1.74
Goals Mean
1.16
1.39
Goals Std
1.05
78.2%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
53.8%
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
26.9%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
2.24
Venue Goals Mean
1.10
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.08
Goals against per game
1.04
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.1%
0.73
Goals against per game
1.30
54.1%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
78
History Matches
56
1.08
Conceded Mean
1.04
0.96
Conceded Std
1.00
32.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
9.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.4%
0.73
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
21.8%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
45.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
10.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
21.8%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
45.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
10.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
78
History Matches
56
0.91
Result entropy
0.98
1.83
Goal Difference Std
1.27
8.64
Stability score
1.79
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
78
Eligible Matches
56
35
Lead Matches
16
91.4%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.83
15
Trailing Matches
13
40.0%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
78
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.90
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
78.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
14
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.86
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
44
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.91
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.14
19
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
20.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.02
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.40
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.40
8
Competition Season Count
5
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.26
1.48
Portability PPG Range
0.67
48.50
Portability Score
66.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
78
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO145.2
PPG0.52
GF0.58
GA0.04
PPG1.40
PPG1.34
PPG1.40
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches22
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate25.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches22
Goals Mean0.58
Goals Std0.34
Scored 1+ rate6.8%
Scored 2+ rate25.3%
Scored 3+ rate14.4%
Venue Goals Mean1.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.76
History Matches22
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate3.5%
Conceded 3+ rate3.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.69
History Matches22
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.56
Stability score6.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.64
Eligible Matches22
Lead Matches19
Lead Win Rate16.4%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate16.9%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches22
First Half Goals For Mean0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.80
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.27
Portability PPG Range0.81
Portability Score-17.50
Rest days-1.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches9
Short Rest Points Per Match0.46
Normal Rest History Matches16
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.77
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.27
Current Team ELO145.2
Current Opponent ELO-145.2
Current ELO Difference290.4
Expected score0.40
History Matches22
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Deportivo Saprissa

D
Deportivo Saprissa0–0LD Alajuelense1 Nov · home
Pick: Deportivo Saprissa 48% · missed
W
Deportivo Saprissa2–1Firpo29 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Saprissa 40% · hit
L
San Carlos2–1Deportivo Saprissa25 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Saprissa 57% · missed
D
Firpo0–0Deportivo Saprissa22 Oct · away
Pick: Firpo 40% · missed
L
CS Cartagines1–0Deportivo Saprissa18 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Saprissa 42% · missed

Puntarenas FC

D
Perez Zeledon1–1Puntarenas FC31 Oct · away
Pick: Puntarenas FC 39% · missed
W
Puntarenas FC3–1Inter San Carlos25 Oct · home
Pick: Inter San Carlos 45% · missed
W
Escorpiones Belén1–2Puntarenas FC20 Oct · away
Pick: Escorpiones Belén 42% · missed
L
CS Cartagines3–1Puntarenas FC14 Oct · away
Pick: CS Cartagines 54% · hit
W
San Carlos1–2Puntarenas FC30 Aug · away
Pick: San Carlos 37% · missed

About this match

Deportivo Saprissa and Puntarenas FC meet in Primera División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 22:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Deportivo Saprissa win 66.5%, draw 19.5%, Puntarenas FC win 14.0%. The pick is Deportivo Saprissa win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.0%. Both teams to score: 49.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.